DFS Alerts
Phillies implied run total continues to drop, currently sitting at 3.8 runs
Cameron Rupp (172 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .321 ISO vs LHP), Tommy Joseph (131 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .247 ISO vs LHP), and Maikel Franco (128 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .252 ISO vs LHP) all have the ability to take advantage of Rodon in this spot. Even Aaron Altherr can be thrown into the mix as well, but he is basically a strikeout waiting to happen (28.6% K%). Outside of those three Phillies hitters, there is not much reason to fear using Rodon in this matchup. While some of the Phillies have some pop against left-handed pitching, there is a reason they have the third-worst wOBA (.288) and the second-worst ISO (.113) in the big leagues against left-handed pitching. In tournaments, Rodon is one of the main pitchers we should look to roster, as he provides similar floor and upside to some of the higher priced pitchers on the slate for a discounted price.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco
Rob Whalen has a 24.2 K% and 29 Soft% through four starts
Rob Whalen was not supposed to be much of a prospect and has allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in six innings or less in each of his four starts, but his 24.2% in the majors so far mirrors recent numbers in the minors and he’s also generated more weak contact (29%) than hard (27.4%). The Diamondbacks have some very hot bats over the last week (Segura, Goldschmidt, Tomas and Castillo above a 180 wRC+), but only two of those bats (Segura and Goldschmidt) have a been above average against RHP this season and neither has an ISO above .200. The point being, this is a manageable lineup for a RHP. Arizona has just a team 88 wRC+ with a 22.9 K% against them, which the positive run environment makes appear stronger. Whalen is a sleeper arm with some upside tonight that only has to be about average to pay off $6.5K on either site. The Diamondbacks are projected for 4.9 runs for some reason, likely because they’ve been hitting the ball a bit better lately and Whalen has a high ERA, but their bats are aggressively priced in this spot against a pitcher who may not be nearly as bad as that ERA.
Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo
Andrew Cashner continues to struggle since trade, LHBs have a .376 wOBA since last year
Andrew Cashner allowed just a single run in his last start, but walked four and struck out one, while his velocity remains down since the trade. He has just a 3.1 K-BB% and 45.8 Hard% in four starts as a Marlin. LHBs have thumped him over the last two seasons for a .376 wOBA and 37.3 Hard%. The Royals have just two in the lineup tonight, both red hot and worth a look. Eric Hosmer (130 wRC+ .178 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 214 wRC+ over the last week. Alex Gordon (105 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is even hotter (302 wRC+ last seven days), but a $5K cost on DraftKings is ridiculous, while he costs just half that on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Andrew Cashner Reed gets the nod at the five-spot in the Astros order, while Ivan Nova allows 1.56 HR/9 to LHB
Ivan Nova has mediocre strikeout stuff (17.8% K%) and a high ground ball rate (52.0%) against right-handed hitters this season, making us more interested in left-handed batters against him (against LHB this season, Nova has only a 13.4% strikeout rate, to go with a 39.8% hard-hit rate and a mere average batted ball profile). Unfortunately, the best way to target the Astros is with their stat right-handed batters. With that said, this is a sneaky spot for A.J. Reed, who has exhibited tremendous power in the minors but has not yet managed to make a huge impact in the big leagues, and for Jason Castro (.204 ISO vs RHP), who actually has one of the highest hard-hit rates in the majors against right-handed pitching at 40.7%, and is only held back by his astronomical 35.2% strikeout rate. With the strikeout danger lowered against Nova, the upside of that hard contact is very much in play. While we want to stay away from the Astros righties in general, Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .202 ISO) and Carlos Correa (134 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .212 ISO) have the talent to overcome a matchup against any right-handed pitcher.
Other tagged players: Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Ivan Nova Nolan Arenado (.300 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a reverse platoon RHP he has three HRs against
Chase Anderson has estimators a run above his 3.00 ERA over the last month with 22.2 K% above an 8.0 SwStr% that hasn’t budged. Not much seems to have changed except the results. RHBs (.360 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%) have hit him much better than LHBs (.312 wOBA, 27.1 Hard%) since last season, moving Nolan Arenado (124 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP since 2015) to the top of our wish list in this lineup. He adds three HRs in just 21 career PAs against Chase Anderson with 95 mph aEV on the last 14 batted balls. Many of the other Colorado bats are aggressively priced. Milwaukee is still a hitter’s park, but it’s not Coors. Ryan Raburn is the Colorado answer to Anderson’s reverse split and we might have to take a look at any starter for less than $3K on DraftKings in a good spot, but he has just a 55 wRC+ and .148 ISO vs RHP since last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Ryan Raburn, Chase Anderson Buchholz in position to be an under-the-rader starting pitcher in tournaments
Let’s be clear, Clay Buchholz is not good. But he actually might not be as bad as he has seemed. Although he has a strikeout rate of only 14.4% this year, his swinging strike rate (9.2%) is right in line with what it was in 2013 when he notched a 23.1% strikeout rate and 1.74 ERA. He is also doing an absolutely terrific job this year limiting hard contact to right-handed hitters (24.0% hard-hit rate, with a 4% hard-minus-soft). The Rays should have four lefties in the lineup today, but Kevin Kiermaier (.180 ISO vs RHP) is the only one in the squad who strikes out at a below-average rate. On the flip-side, Buchholz is surrendering a 35.3% hard-hit rate to lefties, so it’s not all great for him. Buchholz has upside in this matchup on the road at Tropicana Field against a strikeout-happy Rays offense. This makes him a more than viable pitching option in tournaments where we’re looking to pay up for bats or an ace on multiple pitcher sites. If wanting to take a shot at attacking Buchholz, Brad Miller (134 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (.260 ISO vs RHP) would make the most sense in addition to Kiermaier given their power upside.
Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson Barney bats leadoff with Travis OUT as Blue Jays host Tyler Skaggs
Tyler Skaggs is probably better than a 5.19 ERA this season. His .372 BABIP comes with a 28.8 LD%, but he’s successfully limited hard contact according to a 25.9 Hard% and 22.2 Soft%, but his 22.9 K% is not supported by a 7.0 SwStr% and he’s in a difficult spot against a heavily RH lineup with power in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a 110 wRC+ at home, 106 wRC+ vs LHP and 124 wRC+ over the last week. For his career, RHBs have a .322 wOBA against Skaggs, just a bit higher than LHBs (.309), but also 22 of his 25 HRs surrendered and a 31.3 Hard%. The Blue Jays are projected for 4.8 runs and Darwin Barney (101 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) becomes very interesting in the leadoff for the minimum price on DK ($2.4K on FanDuel). There are also four other bats with a 140 or better wRC+ vs LHP this season in Donaldson, Encarnacion, Upton and Saunders. Donaldson (.236 ISO) is the only one of the four with an ISO below .300 vs LHP this season. That’s right, Michael Saunders has a 160 wRC+ and .323 ISO vs LHP this season. He’s dropped to eighth tonight, but tournament players should note that he costs just above $3K on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Melvin Upton, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion Reynaldo Lopez struck out 11 Braves in his last start, much tougher spot in Baltimore
Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t pitched consistently as well as he did at AAA this season through four starts, but striking out 11 of 28 Braves in his last start has brought his 25.5 K% more in line with recent minor league numbers and he does have a double digit SwStr% in three of his four starts. There is some upside in this arm that players can consider on a two pitcher site like DraftKings for just $5.8K, but he is in a very difficult spot in Baltimore tonight (17.7 HR/FB at home, 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP). The Orioles will strike out a little bit though (21.9 K% vs RHP). Lopez has really struggled with RHBs so far (.408 wOBA), while limiting LHBs (.256 wOBA), though both of his HRs have gone to LHBs and he struggled with neither in the minors. RHBs also have just a 21.4 Hard% against him, so that’s likely a little bit of a fluke so far. The Orioles are projected for five runs currently, which is second best, but they’re carrying some high price tags against a pitcher Vegas and the public may be under-rating. This is a very powerful lineup though. Only Wieters and Hardy have a wRC+ below 115 and ISO below .200 vs RHP since last season. The one unexpected entry is Steve Pearce in the two hole. He costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and has been fairly proficient vs RHP since last season (118 wRC+, .228 ISO).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy Pirates implied run total has plummeted to 3.7 runs
The Pirates have decided to run out a couple additional left-handed batters in a home matchup against Joe Musgrove. That’s no the greatest news for Musgrove, as his 27.3% strikeout rate to right-handed batters would set up very well here, against a Pirates team that has been more mediocre all the way around than anyone would have expected coming into the year. The Pirates have a below-average (.311) wOBA against right-handed pitching this year, and they strike out a 21.1% clip. Although Musgrove does allow his fair share of hard contact (35.3% Hard%) and fly balls (38.2%), the big ballpark in Pittsburgh help him in this area.We shouldn’t go out of our way necessarily attack Musgrove, as he is decent tournament option at pitcher, but targeting the lefties as possible one offs could work in our favor. Matt Joyce (152 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .277 ISO vs RHP), Gregory Polanco (120 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP), Adam Frazier (.183 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Bell would be the top candidates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier, Josh Bell Chris Archer has a 29.4 K% at home and 30.0 K% since the break
Chris Archer has allowed 15 runs in 16.2 innings against Boston this season, striking out 18 of 78 batters with two of the three starts being in Boston. He has a 29.4 K% at home and 30.0 K% over the last month with an ERA and estimators around two and a half. He’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball since the break, allowing just three HRs in six starts. The Red Sox are a top three offense on the road (106 wRC+) and best in the majors vs RHP (116 wRC+), but are projected for just 3.65 runs tonight. Archer has really turned his season around and has immense upside for just $8.9K on DraftKings. The only Boston bat is David Oritz (170 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP since last season). He not only has a slightly reduced price tag (below $5K on DK and $900 less on FanDuel), but has a 291 wRC+ and 55 Hard% over the last week and some great numbers against Archer (three HRs and seven extra base hits in 39 PAs, with a 98 mph aEV over last 16 batted balls). Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has similar numbers against Archer (two HRs in 25 PAs, 97 mph aEV last 13 batted balls), but costs a couple of hundred more. Archer has no platoon real split.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Desmond leads off, everyone else up a spot in Cincinnati vs Straily
Dan Straily had a double digit walk rate going into the break, but has increased both his F-Strike% and Zone% three points since the break, resulting in a 3.5 BB% and 18.7 K-BB%. There’s still the matter of a .235 BABIP and 96.3 LOB% driving up his cost perhaps a bit above what it should be in a dangerous park, but the Texas offense is a bit over-rated (91 wRC+ on the road, 96 wRC+ vs RHP), so it’s almost a bit interesting. DraftKings appears to believe in him as only one Texas bat (Lucroy) is above $4K today. Mitch Moreland leads this team in ISO vs RHP since last season (121 wRC+, .232 ISO), bumps up to sixth in an NL park and costs less than $3.5K on either site. Carlos Beltran (119 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be cold (18 wRC+ last seven days), but should not be the second cheapest DK bat in this lineup ($3.2K). Rougned Odor is the other bat with significant power against RHP (107 wRC+, .221 ISO since last season) costing a bit more, but still $3.7K or less on either site. While the Rangers don’t hit RHP all that well, most of their bats are at least average, making such a significant price drop in a decent run environment a bit puzzling.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Rougned Odor RHBs have a .355 wOBA, 34.3 Hard% against Derek Holland since last season
Derek Holland has an ERA above five with just a 13.7 K% and is returning from a shoulder injury, having thrown just 10 AAA innings since the end of June. While he’s been able to remain fairly dominant against LHBs since last season (.276 wOBA, 16.7 Hard%), RHBs have smashed him (.355 wOBA, 34.3 Hard%). There are some interesting bats in a great spot here. Eugenio Suarez is up to $5K on DraftKings, but still costs $3.1K on FanDuel with a 138 wRC+ and .235 ISO vs LHP since 2015. He has a 214 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week. Unfortunately, he’s down in the order. Jose Peraza (101 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another hot (317 wRC+, .53.9 Hard% last seven days) and affordable bat on FanDuel ($2.7K) out of the second spot. Adam Duvall (101 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a moderately priced power OF bat as well. While Joey Votto isn’t in as favorable a spot at a high cost, he still has a 154 wRC+ and .181 ISO vs LHP since last season and is likely to match up against bullpen arms fairly early in this game.
Other tagged players: Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Derek Holland Triggs is sporting an impressive 14.3% K-BB% in three starts this season
There’s this strange enigma about wanting loading up on bats against Andrew Triggs around the industry, and it is extremely puzzling. Perhaps it’s because not a ton of people know about Triggs. He has been an above-average pitcher for Oakland so don’t be fooled by the 4.98 ERA, as he has been victimized by a .336 BABIP despite allowing a hard contact rate of 26.7%. The SIERA and xFIP of Triggs sit at 3.44 and 3.50 respectively, and his strikeout rate is just above league average at 21.1%. There is more than enough merit in using Triggs on DraftKings tonight, where he is minimum salary. Triggs could be our pathway to some of the more expensive hitters along with an ace as our other starting pitcher. With that said, we shouldn’t find it necessary to consider the over-priced Cleveland bats in this spot considering the matchup and ballpark downgrade.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jon Lester has a 23.2 K-BB% over his last four starts and is in a strong spot in San Diego
Jon Lester has a 23.2 K-BB%, allowing just five ERs over 25.2 innings in his last four starts. He’s got the best defense in baseball behind him while traveling to easily the most negative run environment in play today to face a San Diego offense with a 25.0 K% vs LHP. The Padres do have a 17.2 HR/FB and 108 wRC+ vs LHP, but have been diminished against southpaws since trading Upton and Kemp, which is fairly obvious from the lineup they run out tonight with several unrecognizable and/or undesirable names. Wil Myers (153 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) does cost just $3.5K on DraftKings tonight, but the Padres are projected for a slate low 3.1 runs. Lester is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but is also an arm players should feel comfortable paying up for in a nice spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wil Myers Carlos Carrasco has struck out 28 of last 84 batters, gets a nice park upgrade in Oakland
Carlos Carrasco has struck out 28 of his last 84 batters, pitching 20.2 innings over his last three starts, allowing 10 ERs and three HRs on a 39.6 Hard%, but when you’re missing that many bats, you can get away with a bit more hard contact, especially with just two walks. A significant park upgrade should also help the cause, even if he has to sacrifice a bit in strikeout rate potential (A’s 18.0 K% at home, 18.6 K% vs RHP). However, they have very little power at home (9.6 HR/FB) against RHP (10.6 HR/FB). It seems MMA hopefuls Valencia and Butler used all of their power against each other as both are out of tonight’s lineup, though neither hits RHP particularly well. An affordably priced Khris Davis (123 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an interesting name here for $3.5K or less on either site with the increased hard hit rate from Carrasco. This is a great spot for Carrasco though with Oakland projected to score just 3.3 runs. He’s a top pitching option tonight, who can afford a small tradeoff in strikeouts a nice park upgrade in a good matchup.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis