DFS Alerts
Any conversation about the Twins against LHPs starts with Brian Dozier (185 wRC+, .379 ISO)
Matt Boyd has a 3.93 ERA well below is more than a half run below his 4.47 SIERA and 4.76 xFIP due to a .256 BABIP. He has just an 11.4 K-BB% this season and faces an offense that can hit LHP a little bit, though they do strike out 23% of the time against them. The way to go in this matchup is probably the top three in the order or a complete fade. All three have a wRC+ above 140 with an ISO above .190 or better vs LHP this season. Brian Dozier (185 wRC+, .379 ISO) is where the conversation starts against lefties, but costs well over $5K on DraftKings. Miguel Sano (143 wRC+, .241 ISO) has a -93 wRC+ and just a 10% hard hit rate over the last week, while Robbie Grossman’s southpaw numbers still look strong (159 wRC+, .193 ISO), but have also taken a dip recently. RHBs have just a .316 wOBA against Boyd this season, but with a 33.9 Hard% and nine of his 11 HRs.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman, Matthew Boyd
James Shields has a -1.7% K-BB% over the past month. In other words, he hasn't been great
There may not be any pitcher in the league who is worse than James Shields right now. For the season, he has a 5.30 SIERA with a 14.7% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. Over the last month, that strikeout rate is all the way down to 8.6% while the walks are up to 10.3%. Add in all the fly balls and hard hits and it’s really not all that surprising he has allowed 27 runs in his last four starts. Unfortunately, it’s never easy to get excited about stacking a Phillies team that ranks 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, but honestly, it’s hard to envision Shields having success against any offense right now. From an individual matchup perspective, Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .166 ISO vs RHP) is the only player who looks to be in play for any format, while Ryan Howard (.264 ISO vs RHP) is the tournament option of all tournament options. However, this entire lineup is in play for stacks against Shields.
Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, James Shields
Jose Fernandez faces the worst road offense in baseball (78 wRC+)
Jose Fernandez got knocked for five runs for the second time in five starts with the silver lining being that he finished with a clean innings, striking out the last two batters before Mattingly removed him after 65 pitches. Let’s hope that’s not the start of a trend. His hard contact rate is now up to 31.7% on the season and LHBs do have a .321 wOBA with a 34.4 Hard% against him since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, but he’s still missing more bats than any other pitcher in baseball (35.6 K%) and is in a great spot at home against the worst road offense in baseball (78 wRC+). The Royals also have an 83 wRC+ against RHP with a 9.2 HR/FB and no single batter in tonight’s lineup with an ISO above .200 against righties this year. Fernandez is probably tonight’s top pitcher. The Royals are the only team projected for less than three runs tonight, half a run lower than the next lowest team.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Blue Jays have the the highest implied run total on the slate (4.9) but proceed with some caution
Matt Shoemaker is a pitcher that can be more than viable in tournaments since he has high upside against a Blue Jays team with the largest strikeout rate in all of baseball over the past month (25.9% K%). On the flip side, Shoemaker has allowed 1.35 HR/9 in his career to right-handed batters despite having good strikeout and walk rates. This season, all of his advanced stats have been respectable against right-handed batters except for home runs (1.47 HR/9). We shouldn’t be all that interested in stacking against Shoemaker, as his low walks and potential for dominant starts make him one of the tougher pitchers to load up against. But, any of Edwin Encarnacion (.283 ISO), Josh Donaldson (.272 ISO), Troy Tulowitzki (.223 ISO) and Russell Martin (.179 ISO) are tournament plays given their power upside and the long ball tendency of Shoemaker.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Matt Shoemaker Matt Andriese has a 20.0 K-BB% and 4.0 Hard-Soft% last three starts
Matt Andriese has allowed 14 runs over his last 15 innings as a starter and is facing one of the top offenses in baseball against RHP (115 wRC+). Stack your Red Sox, right? But why are they only projected for 4.3 runs tonight? Andriese also has struck out 17 of 70 with a 20.0 K-BB% over that span with a 4.0 Hard-Soft%. He also gets to face the Red Sox in Tampa Bay, which is worth something tonight. With nobody likely to be on him (check our Projected Ownership page when it updates today), Andriese has an 11.6% or better SwStr rate in each of his four starts this month and is the rare pitcher with these kind of numbers that you’re going to see for less than $6K. Of course, he’s more viable on DraftKings for $600 less, where two pitchers are necessary and the Win isn’t as emphasized. David Ortiz (169 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is always the one Red Sox bat we remain interested in against nearly any RHP, but players looking for a punt Outfielder, who are not afraid of bottom of the order hitters, might notice Andrew Benintendi’s 157 wRC+ and .208 ISO vs RHP so far, along with a price tag below $3K.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Andrew Benintendi Rays strikeout at a 23.8% clip versus RHP and 25.0% overall in the past month
It’s really unfortunate that Rick Porcello is priced as high as he is on DraftKings, especially on a slate with high upside options like Jose Fernandez and Yu Darvish available in the same range. But given the matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays, we should definitely feel comfortable with Porcello in this spot. It would be surprising if Porcello is unable to post a solid outing given the matchup and ballpark boost, but it just seems unlikely he will be able to compete with the other strikeout artists priced around him. This makes him more of an option on FanDuel where he is reasonably priced and can benefit from the win bonus he is likely to receive.
As reported by: FanGraphs Tanner Roark generates lots of weak contact, but has just a 15.0 K% over the last month
This matchup is looking like one that players might consider fading aside from the two reasonably priced LHBs. Tanner Roark is a soft tossing righty, whom the Orioles have occasionally had issues with, that has had his ERA propped up by a 78.4 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB. However, he’s generated tons of weak contact this season (-1.2 Hard-Soft%), which is much more useful for his real team than it is for daily fantasy players paying $8.5K or more for a pitcher with just a 15.0 K% and 6.3 SwStr% over the last month and hasn’t struck out more than seven in a start since April. The Orioles have been hammering RHP recently and have a 17.5 HR/FB against them this season, but LHBs have just a .312 wOBA with a 30.8 Hard% against him since last season and that’s his bad side. Projected for just 3.7 runs in an NL park without their DH, players might limit their exposure to Chris Davis (142 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $4K or less with a team high 273 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week and Hyun Soo Kim (140 wRC+ vs RHP).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tanner Roark, Hyun-Soo Kim The Marlins have just two batters with a wRC+ above 100 or ISO above .107 vs RHP this year
The Marlins have two hitters with a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP this season and also just two with an ISO above .107 in the lineup tonight. Christian Yelich (150 wRC+, .224 ISO) is the only player that fits both categories and is by far the only playable Marlin bat against a pitcher LHBs have a .389 wOBA and 33.9 Hard% against since last season, especially for $3.4K on FanDuel. The rest of these numbers might make Dillon Gee look slightly interesting in your second pitcher spot on DraftKings tonight. He hasn’t been good (19 HRs in 93.2 innings in a good park), but has been a perfectly serviceable fifth starter with an 11.3 K-BB% and 30.8 Hard%, while probably not having to worry about power as much tonight. The Marins (mostly w/ Stanton) have just a 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP and at home. He costs just $5.1K and may come in handy if rostering a $12K pitcher on DK tonight.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich RHBs have a .344 wOBA with 32 HRs vs Miley since last season & Nats have a 16.3 HR/FB vs LHP
This inter-league rivalry switches parks tonight and with it goes the DH, which is really doesn’t mean much from Washington’s side of things, though the transition from Baltimore to Washington is a park upgrade for pitchers. Wade Miley, who has been torched since being traded to the Orioles, is going to need more than that facing an offense with a 106 wRC+ and 16.3 HR/FB vs LHP. RHBs have a .344 wOBA with 32 HRs against Miley since last season and the Nationals are projected for 4.8 runs tonight. The issue is with an enormous cost on DraftKings, where just Ramos and Espinosa are below $4.8K. It’s a bit rosier for the top two bats against LHP since last year on FanDuel, where Jayson Werth (152 wRC+, .287 ISO) costs $3.6K and Ryan Zimmerman (144 wRC+, .310 ISO) costs just $3K. He, along with Rendon, Harper and Turner all have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week, but Turner has just a 61 wRC+ and .064 ISO vs LHP in his short career and Miley is not a pitcher he can run on.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Wade Miley Yu Darvish has pitched into the seventh in each of last four starts, struck out eight or more five of last seven
Yu Darvish compares favorably to and is perhaps overshadowed only by Jose Fernandez tonight. Both have a strikeout rate above 30% with a hard hit rate just north of that mark as well, but where as Fernandez has struggled a bit in recent starts, Darvish continues to dominate. He’s struck out at least eight in five of his last seven starts and gone more than six innings in each of his last four. The Reds are hot, with just a 7.1 K-BB% over the last week and play in a power friendly park, but he loses the DH tonight and they’re still a predominantly RH offense with below average power since trading their cleanup hitter. This is a fine spot for one of tonight’s top arms, but he’s also likely to be one of the more popular pitchers because of it (check back with our Projected Ownership page after it updates later). The Reds are projected for a third lowest 3.5 runs tonight, but their price tags have been significantly reduced and they do have three batters with a 200+ wRC+ over the last week, including Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who’s price has not reduced, but may be nearly matchup proof right now and Jose Peraza (94 wRC+ vs RHP this season), who costs $3K or less on either site out of the two hole and might be the hottest bat in the lineup (287 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days). Darvish has some odd splits so far (LHBs – .260 wOBA, 36.9 Hard% & RHBs – .308 wOBA, 27.7 Hard%), but we don’t really want to have to much exposure to an offense against a dominant pitcher.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jose Peraza Tim Adleman has an 88.4 LOB% through five starts and some odd lefty/righty splits
The Rangers are in Cincinnati facing a young pitcher with some interesting splits in Tim Adleman, who’s 88.4 LOB% through five starts has kept his 2.96 ERA over two runs below his estimators with just a 17.9 K%. LHBs have a .412 wOBA, but just a 25.7 Hard% against him, while RHBs have a .250 wOBA with a 36.8 Hard%. All three of his HRs have gone to LHBs. Nearly all of the Texas bats seem reasonable here with just Elvis Andrus below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but he has a 200 wRC+ over the last week. None grade out as exceptionally necessary tonight with Jonathan Lucroy’s 131 wRC+ being the only one above 108 vs RHP this season and he costs $5K on DraftKings. It’s a collection of average bats at reasonably average prices that should be able to fill holes in your lineup if needed. Players really looking for exposure to this lineup should probably look most closely at Mitch Moreland (108 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP this season), who is less than $4K on either site and Rougned Odor (107 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) for just a few hundred more. Carlos Beltran is the other league average bat with an ISO above .200 against RHP this season, but has a -100 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Tim Adleman, Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor Trevor Bauer looks to continue recent good run
In each of his last three starts, Trevor Bauer has put up at least 30 FanDuel fpts including a 13K, 57 fpt outing his last time out against the powerful Toronto lineup. The Oakland A’s are his opponent today, and while they don’t strike out much, Bauer makes for an intriguing GPP option as he will likely be underowned and is a solid favorite. The Indians bats also have a favorable match up against Kendall Graveman with Jason Kipnis the top option. Carlos Santana leading off, Jose Ramirez batting third, Mike Napoli batting cleanup, and Lonnie Chisenhall batting fifth are also worth rostering as part of a team stack.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes on Twitter Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis
Yankees-Mariners game should be low-scoring close affair
With a run total of just 7.5 and both teams projected to score nearly the same, the game between the Yankees and Mariners should be a close, low-scoring one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees and is in play in GPP’s coming off a five start stint that has seen him post a 3.07 SIERA and 25%+ K rate. He faces Hisashi Iwakuma who gets to face a young, inexperienced Yankees lineup as a slight favorite. While his upside has been limited this season (just a 17.6% K rate), the matchup has potential to change that putting Iwakuma in play in GPP’s. The hot hitting Gary Sanchez is the only bat to target from the Yankees while only Nelson Cruz is worth a look from the Mariners facing Tanaka who has allowed a <.280 wOBA to both sides of the plate. For the most part, this game is one to avoid outside of the two pitchers.
As reported by: Bob Dutton on Twitter Other tagged players: Hisashi Iwakuma Trevor Bauer looks for his second straight pitching gem as he takes the mound at the Oakland Coliseum - Coco Crisp is out.
Trevor Bauer takes the mound this afternoon for the Indians fresh off a 13 strikeout performance against the Blue Jays in his last start. While he’s been somewhat inconsistent this season it seems unlikely that he’ll meet much resistance this afternoon as he defeated the Athletics in their only prior meeting this season and this Oakland team also happens to own just a .304 wOBA against right-handed pitching as well as an ugly .290 wOBA at home. Stephen Vogt tends to draw plenty of attention behind the plate when facing right-handed pitching, but it’s been rookie Ryon Healy with a team best .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching thus far. Meanwhile Khris Davis has already smacked 33 home runs on the season and his .276 ISO against right-handed pitching highlights his upside here against the power-pitching Bauer. With Coco Crisp out of the lineup, Jake Smolinski gets a rare crack at the lead off spot.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Jake Smolinski, Coco Crisp
Padres easy fade against heavily favored Cubs today
The Padres enter today’s game against Chicago as substantial +235 underdogs and with Paul Clemens on the mound for the home team it could be a long day in San Diego. Clemens should be avoided at all costs as the Cubs have a run total topping five even in pitcher friendly Petco Park. Outside of Alex Dickerson and maybe Ryan Schimpf, the Padres bats can also be avoided as they have struggled all season against all pitchers and face the more than capable Kyle Hendricks.
As reported by: San Diego Padres official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Paul Clemens