DFS Alerts
Dylan Bundy has struck out 17 of his last 58 batters with a 13.0 SwStr% and costs just $4.4K on DraftKings
The Rangers have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but this looks like a much more balanced and deeper lineup with the additions of Beltran (121 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Lucroy (115 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) today. Even considering that, the Rangers do not have a batter priced lower than $4.2K on DraftKings in the top eight with a marginal projection of just 4.4 runs. Considering the other side quickly, especially on two pitcher sites that may necessitate a cheaper arm, Dylan Bundy, a one time huge prospect not that long ago, has struck out 17 of his last 58 batters and has a 13 SwStr% over his last three starts. If not leaning that way for just $4.4K on DraftKings, he has little platoon split with left and right-handed batters both just below a .340 wOBA against him this year. Jurickson Profar (126 wRC+ .177 vs RHP this season) is the only bat below $3K on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, Jurickson Profar
Madison Bumgarner's 31.9 K% in July is just seventh on today's board
Madison Bumgarner has just the seventh highest July strikeout rate on today’s board at 31.9%. He’s been better at home because San Francisco is a great park, but a 19.8 K-BB% on the road since last season is still All Star quality. With a 0.95 GB/FB and 32.0 Hard% this season, the small park might be a bit of a concern if he didn’t have the top matchup on the board. The Phillies are the absolute worst offense in baseball at home (63 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%, 23 Hard%) and vs LHP (71 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB%, 26.3 Hard%). Bumgarner is a top three pitcher on an incredibly strong board tonight, but also the highest priced. He is facing the team with the lowest run projection on the board though (2.9). The Phillies line up entirely right-handed and those from that side have just a .268 wOBA against Bumgarner since last season. While this certainly isn’t the pitcher we want to attack, low priced bats with some upside will be a commodity today. Both Tommy Joseph (149 wRC+, .288 ISO) and Cameron Rupp (184 wRC+, .318 ISO) have smashed LHP this year and cost $3.2K or less on either site ($2.4K each on FanDuel).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph Paxton has increased his curveball usage and struck out 15 of last 47 batters
This is an tricky spot for the Red Sox. They have and 8.2 K-BB% and 116 wRC+ vs LHP, but enter a negative run environment in Seattle coming off an overall team 86 wRC+ over the last week. They face a pitcher in Paxton, who has struck out 15 of his last 47 batters and has a 13.7 SwStr% after increasing his curveball usage to 20.5% over his last three starts. The curveball is a reverse platoon pitch and that’s been the case in an extreme way for Paxton since last season. RHBs have just a .300 wOBA and 29.6 Hard%, while LHBs have a .415 wOBA and 42.0 Hard%. David Ortiz immediately comes to mind, but he costs well over $4K on either site and has just a .169 ISO vs LHP this season. Perhaps Jackie Bradley Jr. is the play here (130 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for less than $4K on either site, but might also be a spot worth fading the Red Sox (or even considering Paxton) at a middling projection of just four runs, which has been declining throughout the day.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, David Ortiz Murphy returns to the lineup tonight, Nationals currently tied for the highest implied run total on the slate (4.7)
Archie Bradley has had some decent outings recently that have boosted his season numbers a bit. Bradley has a high 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season, but if we dig deeper, we’ll find that he’s faced a bottom-barrel strikeout offense in seven of his last 12 starts. His 7.7% SwStr% indicates that we should expect some serious regression to his strikeout rate in the near future. Even with the strikeout success he’s had against right-handed batters, Bradley is still inducing below-average ground balls (41.0% GB%) and allowing a ton of hard contact to righties (34.5%). Bradley is striking out left-handed batters at a below-average rate (17.7%), while surrendering a massive 40.5% Hard%. This is a great spot for the Nationals lefties and even a full Nationals stacks. Daniel Murphy (169 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (125 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays that should be included in any Nationals stack. Danny Espinosa (.163 ISO vs RHP) can be considered as a tournament punt given his power upside and scarcity at the SS position.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Archie Bradley
Nelson Cruz has a 194 wRC+ and .338 ISO vs LHP since 2015 with a 147 wRC+ at home
Eduardo Rodriguez improved to perfectly league average strikeout (20.3%) and walk rates (8.1%) in July, though he didn’t go about it consistently on a start by start basis. He also stranded 91.4% of his runners, but had a 26.4 Soft% while his hard hit rate dropped by over 15 points, now down to a reasonable 30% on the season. He still has just a 29.3 GB% on the season, which you wouldn’t think would be that dangerous in Seattle, but the Mariners have a 17+ HR/FB at home and vs LHP. Making this even more difficult, he has a bit of reverse split in his career. LHBs have a .355 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against him, while RHBs still have a decent .322 wOBA and 30.6 Hard%. Nelson Cruz would probably still be the top bat here as he crushes LHP (194 wRC+, .338 ISO since 2015). He also leads the team with a 147 wRC+ at home since last season. It’s disappointing that Franklin Gutierrez (155 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has dropped to seventh tonight. There are few other bats that look all that interesting in a negative run environment.
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Eduardo Rodriguez Just one game (Yankees @ Mets) with any weather risk in Kevin's evening update
Kevin’s late weather update shows only one game with even moderate concern and with most player uninterested in the pitching for the Yankees Mets affair, a YELLOW grading shouldn't move us off any of the bats. However, Kevin also warns us that things can change here, so players will want to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates as we get closer to lock as well as read his full report on our Weather Page, linked below.
Ruggiano bats second tonight against CC Sabathia, owns a career 134 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .246 ISO versus LHP
This is a tough matchup to gauge since Sabathia has pitched semi-decent this season outside of a couple rough stretches. Sabathia has excelled at limiting hard contact this season, only allowing a 22.2% Hard% to left-handed batters and a hard-hit rate of 24.6% to right-handed batters. If tonight were a full slate, neither Sabathia nor the Mets offense would be seriously in consideration given the marginal matchup on both sides. You can definitely make a case for using Sabathia in this spot with the Mets lineup still missing Yoenis Cespedes and others. The Mets bats to target outside of Ruggiano are Wilmer Flores (180 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .318 ISO vs LHP) and Neil Walker (147 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .269 ISO vs LHP) if going that route.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Neil Walker, CC Sabathia LHBs have 9 HRs and a 38.8 Hard% against Jimmy Nelson this season
Jimmy Nelson has a 3.42 ERA because 23% of his runs have been unearned. His defense is atrocious, but that also causes him to throw more pitches, even if it doesn’t count as points against him. A month ago, we might have considered him in a great spot against a Padres offense with an 82 wRC+ and 17.9 K-BB% vs RHP this season and while there are still several outs in the bottom half of this lineup, there are now four LHBs in the top five and Nelson continues to struggle with LHBs. He has a 2.7 K-BB%, while allowing 9 HRs and a 38.8 Hard% to lefties. Let’s look at some of those cheap Padre LHBs, including Ryan Schimpf (153 wRC+, .351 ISO vs RHP), Yangervis Solarte (124 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP this season) and Travis Jankowski (115 wRC+ vs RHP this season) all for $3.5K or less on either site. Even Alexi Amarista (81 wRC+ vs RHP this season) can serve as a SS punt play for $2.5K or less from the second spot. While the negative run environment may hamper their overall upside, San Diego LH bats are still cheap enough to provide value if paying up for pitching tonight.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Travis Jankowski, Alexi Amarista, Jimmy Nelson Josh Donaldson scratched Monday, Darwin Barney now batting 8th and playing 3B
This takes the Toronto offense down a few pegs. Doug Fister is certainly not a recommended target after this news, but it makes the Jays a much tougher team to feel comfortable stacking in GPPs. Darwin Barney will now bat 8th and play 3B.
As reported by: Barry Davis Other tagged players: Darwin Barney
Rays part ways with two of their best RH bats (Pearce and Guyer), Duffy suddenly becomes a much more intriguing option
The Rays are somewhat surprisingly a top offense versus left-handed pitching in both wOBA (.338) and ISO (.178 ISO). Although, the Rays still strikeout a ton against left-handed pitching (23.8% K%) making them a boom-or-bust matchup. Duffy has posted a 25.3% K% to right-handed batters this season but does a poor job keeping the ball on the ground (34.0% GB%) and surrenders a massive amount of hard contact (37.1%). The Rays lineup also became a bit less potent versus left-handed pitching trading away two of their best hitters against LHP in Brandon Guyer and Steve Pearce earlier this afternoon. Duffy is definitely in consideration on a short slate but is far from the top play given his price but will make for an interesting tournament option. Logan Forsythe (150 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .250 ISO vs LHP) and Evan Longoria (130 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .225 ISO vs LHP) would be the Rays bats to consider if looking to target the opposite side of this matchup and for some power upside in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe Fister has a 57.1 GB% vs RHBs, but LHBs have 12 HRs and a .369 wOBA against him
Doug Fister has a 3.73 ERA predicated on a .264 BABIP and 77.1 LOB%, while his estimators are much higher and his 15.0 K% leaves little room for daily fantasy value, especially against such a tough Toronto lineup. However, he has kept RHBs on the ground 57.1% of the time for a .244 wOBA and just three HRs. This hurts the fantasy value of some high priced RH Toronto bats, though Jose Bautista (141 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs no more than $4.1K on either site and you never want to completely remove Josh Donaldson (152 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) completely from the equation. LHBs have smashed Fister though (.369 wOBA, 12 HRs), making Saunders (119 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Justin Smoak (106 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) two very interesting bats at marginal cost on either site (below $4.5K on DK, below $4K on FD).
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Doug Fister, Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista Diamondbacks implied run total has decreased to 3.3 runs despite hitters park
There’s not much more we can say about how good Strasburg has been this season. Strasburg is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the majors (30.9% K%) that is backed up with a respectable 11.2% SwStr%. If opposing batters somehow manage to make contact against Strasburg, it is rarely ever significant contact (25.3% Hard%). Further proving the case for Strasburg, the Diamondbacks have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching (23.3% K%). Chase Field is a hitters park but that only really matters with balls that are actually put in play, and Strasburg should be less susceptible to the ballpark conditions given his ability to induce soft contact and rack up strikeouts. Strasburg is one of the clear top pitching options on this slate regardless of price and ball park adjusted matchup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Zobrist sits as Baez (176 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats cleanup at Wrigley against Conley
Adam Conley has a 1.82 ERA in July partially due to a 5.1 HR/FB, but mostly because of an 87.7 LOB%. The good news is his walk rate dropped to 7.2% last month, but his strikeout rate declined to 21.6% too with a hard contact rate of 38.4%. The Cubs are one of the best offenses against LHP (114 wRC+, 10.2 BB%) with a skill set that can give a pitcher with control problems a lot of issues. While Zobrist’s absence is a bit of a blow, Javier Baez (176 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) gains some value in the cleanup spot for less than $4K on either site. Kris Bryant (170 wRC+, .322 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top overall bat in this lineup and one of the biggest overall tonight, though RHBs have just a .303 wOBA against Conley in his career. LHBs have a higher .326 wOBA, but just a 21.4 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Adam Conley Twins lineup now much different than the original; Kepler batting 3rd, no Miguel Sano
The Twins original starting lineup has seen quite a few changes to it over the last half hour. Miguel Sano, Juan Centeno and Robbie Grossman are all now out of the lineup with Max Kepler, Kurt Suzuki and Eddie Rosario stepping in. Check out the full confirmed lineup on our starting lineups page.
As reported by: Rhett Bollinger Other tagged players: Miguel Sano Marlins are currently tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate (3.2)
Kyle Hendricks has struck out seven in each of his last two starts, a mark he’s only hit three other times this season despite an above average strikeout rate (21.9%) and that’s because he’s only gone beyond six innings six times this season (only twice in his last nine starts). Hendricks has been great from a contact perspective with not only a 52.3 GB%, but more weak contact (26.7%) than hard (25.2%). He’s in a pretty marginal marginal against the Marlins at Wrigley. They don’t strike out a lot, but have just three batters with any semblance of power vs RHP (9.7 HR/FB). Christian Yelich (151 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) is a bit pricey in certain places but is really the only Marlins bat in a decent spot outside of Dee Gordon. To be clear, Gordon is only a target due to his stolen base upside as Miguel Montero has allowed 46 stolen bases (third-most in MLB) and thrown out just three batters the entire season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Dee Strange-Gordon