DFS Alerts
Matt Shoemaker has a 25.7 K-BB% at home this season
Matt Shoemaker has pitched four of his last five games on the road, striking out a total of 13 in those starts. He struck out 13 in his one home start, where he has a 25.7 K-BB% this year, double his 12.1 K-BB% on the road. While the A’s don’t strike out a ton (18.4% vs RHP), they just lost their top LH bat and have just an 89 wRC+ with a 10.2 HR/FB vs RHP too. This is a great run prevention spot in a pitcher’s park with enough strikeout upside to keep Shoemaker in play tonight for $8.5K on either site when most of the higher upside pitchers cost much more. Oakland bats are not really on the radar tonight, though RHBs do have a .334 wOBA against him since last year and Khris Davis (123 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) costs just $3.6K or less on either site. He has a 225 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis
Story to DL, Rockies run projection down to 4.9 runs at home tonight
The Rockies opened the day with a projection of 5.3 runs, but have now dropped all the way down to 4.9. Brandon McCarthy has a 33.3 K% in five starts, though his 9.9 SwStr% is just a bit above average. He also has a 0.92 GB/FB and though he’s allowed just two HRs so far, has had long ball issues in recent seasons. There’s probably not enough of a reason to consider him tonight (though he is just $5.8K on DraftKings), but the value of forcing high priced Rockies bats into daily fantasy lineups is questionable also. While Blackmon (110 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Gonzalez (143 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are usually top bats at home, both they and the slumping Arenado (126 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP since 2015, but -63 wRC+ last seven days) cost above $5K on DK or $4K on FD. David Dahl doesn’t have much of a track record yet, but does cost just $3K on DraftKings and bats fifth with Trevor Story being placed on the DL today.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Brandon McCarthy Blue Jays implied run total has decreased to 3.7 runs currently
Lance McCullers has managed to post double-digit strikeout efforts in three of his past five starts. McCullers also has elite strikout stuff with a 30.1% K% that ties him for fifth-best in the majors. The main issue with McCullers is his control, walking 13.3% of batters on the year, but has been fortunate enough to get away with them recently. It’s concerning that the Blue Jays take the second-most walks in the majors against right-handed pitching (10.1%), but there is no doubting the elite upside McCullers possesses in this matchup. It’s also tough to recommend any individual Blue Jays hitters since McCullers is unlikely to get hurt by the long ball. If Toronto gets to McCullers it will through walks, singles and long rallies. This is a roster McCullers banking on the strikeouts or stack the Blue Jays in hopes McCullers gets blown up situation. No in-between.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Josh Reddick slots right in to cleanup for the Dodgers at Coors
Jon Gray is a high upside pitcher, who has pitched well at home on occasion (18.0 K-BB% career), but against an improving Dodger lineup (101 wRC+ vs RHP, 114 wRC+ last seven days) that just added another big LHB, this probably isn’t the slate for him. The Dodgers are actually only tied with the Tigers for tonight’s top run projection (5.5), but they are the only two teams well above five tonight. Corey Seager (160 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP career) may be the top overall bat on the slate, while Josh Reddick (138 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) slots right in at cleanup. Justin Turner (148 wRC+, .224 ISO), Grandal (113 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Pederson (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) have all shown great power against RHP since last season as well with the latter two carrying a WRC+ above 200 over the last week. It’s not really a question of if you should use Dodger bats tonight, but if you can afford them alongside a high upside pitcher.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Jon Gray, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal Altuve (157 wRC+) and Correa (141 wRC+) both strong against RHP, but costly against Dickey tonight
While there’s obviously no interest in R.A. Dickey on this slate, traditional lefty/righty splits may hold less meaning against a knuckleballer. Unfortunately, only a few current Astros have more than 10 career PAs against Dickey and Carlos Gomez was a much different hitter when many of those took place. Neither Altuve or Castro (both with 22 PAs) have meaningful numbers against him, so we’re back to relying on splits. Thankfully, Altuve (157 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Correa (141 wRC+, .241 ISO) have been incredibly strong against same handed pitching this year, but both, in addition to George Springer (114 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP this season) cost above $5K on DK ($3.8K or more on FanDuel). These appear to be overall strong bats tonight, but may be difficult to afford along with a high priced pitcher.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, R.A. Dickey Moss returns to the Cardinals lineup after DL stint, has a 171 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .401 ISO versus RHP this season
This is a difficult matchup to gauge as the Cardinals have hit right-handed pitching well this season (112 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .198 ISO), but Dan Straily has some strong splits allowing just a .277 wOBA to right-handed batters. Straily also strikes out righties at a 23.7% clip while only walking them 5.9% of the time, but the long ball continues to be a problem for Straily with his home ballpark and fly ball pitching profile (45.4%). As good as Straily has been against righties, he has been just as bad versus left-handed batters posting a 1.9% K-BB rate. This puts the Cardinals lefties, Brandon Moss and Matt Adams (.227 ISO vs RHP), entirely in cash and tournament consideration. Stephen Piscotty (.152 ISO vs RHP) sacrifices the platoon advantage but is definitely in play given his bump up to the lead off spot.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Stephen Piscotty, Dan Straily Max Kepler has a 155 wRC+ and .364 ISO vs RHP this year after three HRs last night
Carlos Carrasco has an 86.1 LOB% keeping his 2.45 ERA more than a run below his estimators this season, but he still has a 23.8 K% on an 11.6 SwStr% with a 51% ground ball rate. That may look pedestrian on a day like today, but he’s facing an offense with a 24.1 K% on the road and 22.0 K% vs RHP. He may not even be a top five pitcher tonight, but it’s hard to call him unusable for $10K with several pitchers in his price range or higher on either site. The one Minnesota bat we’re interested in here is the guy who hit three HRs last night. Max Kepler is having a break out season with a 155 wRC+ and .364 ISO vs RHP now. He still costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. LHBs have just a .278 wOBA against Carrasco since last season, but a 32 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco Anibal Sanchez had an 8.41 ERA with a 28.1 K% in four July starts
Anibal Sanchez had an 8.41 ERA in four July starts with estimators five runs lower and a 28.1 K% with just two HRs allowed on a 26.2 Hard%. Hitters were spraying line drives all over the field for a .475 BABIP and 35 LD%. It’s all incredibly difficult to figure out, but he’s been broken for some time now. Players on DraftKings might see his upside for just $5.6K against a weak offense and consider him in their secondary spot if paying up in their first spot. After all, the bottom third of this lineup looks to be a cake walk tonight. RHBs have actually hit him much better than LHBs since last year though (.378 wOBA vs .319), so players still may want to look at Todd Frazier (103 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jose Abreu (129 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015). They are the only two RHBs that have been anywhere near competent against RHP the last two seasons.
Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Anibal Sanchez Naquin still batting seventh despite a 176 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .298 ISO versus RHP #FreeTylerNaquin
Kyle Gibson isn’t really a bad pitcher by any stretch of the imagination and has actually been pitching well recently. Gibson started out the season rough, but his ability to keep the ball on the ground (52.4% GB%), solid control, and 4.32 SIERA show that he is a respectable major league starter at the very least. The preferred way to attack Gibson is with left-handed bats, something that is plentiful in the Indians lineup. Gibson still sports some decent numbers to lefties with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 49.6% ground ball rate but he still definitely has the most success with right-handed batters. An Indians stack consisting of Carlos Santana (137 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP), Jason Kipnis (134 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP), Lonnie Chisenhall (123 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .164 ISO), and Francisco Lindor (116 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .158 ISO vs RHP) is certainly viable but will cost a hefty price tag on DraftKings. Of course, everyone’s favorite overpriced, bottom-of-the-order bat, Tyler Naquin, is always in play in tournaments when Cleveland faces a right-handed pitcher.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Francisco Lindor, Kyle Gibson Jacob deGrom has a 28.5 K% at home this year with at least six in 11 of his last 12 overall
Jacob deGrom’s 24.2 K% this season is barely top 10 on today’s board and though he’s facing a Yankee offense with just a 19.3 K% vs RHP, they dealt away their best hitter yesterday and are without a DH today. This is an excellent run prevention spot for deGrom, who has shown a modicum of consistency with at least seven innings in four of his last six starts and at least six Ks in 11 of his last 12. Add in one of the most negative run environments in the league and it’s really a great matchup for him. Some other pitchers might have more upside, so he’s not the top choice, but a more than adequate fall back with perhaps a higher floor. He still has a 28.5 K%, similar to last season, at home this year. Yankee bats are of no interest to us, as they actually have the second lowest run projection this afternoon (3.1).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Kris Bryant sits OUT against Jose Fernandez at Wrigley tonight
Jose Fernandez has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball since Kershaw went down. He leads the majors with a 36.8 K% by 3.9 points over Kershaw and has dropped his BB% below average. His hard contact rate (31.6%) isn’t as low as you might expect, but even when he’s allowed some runs, he’s still generating enough strikeouts to form a high floor. He’s struck out less than seven in just three starts and no fewer than five in any. The Cubs could challenge his pitch count with a 10.3 BB% vs RHP, but they also strike out 22.6% of the time vs RHP. The second priced pitcher on either site, Fernandez is always a top play with as much or more upside than any pitcher on the board and looks even better against this lineup with Kris Bryant out. LHBs have been able to touch him up a bit with a .318 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% since last season though. Players not on Fernandez might actually consider Anthony Rizzo (167 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP this season) and or Ben Zobrist (130 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP this season) at a slightly reduced cost tonight. There are actually several teams projected for fewer than their 3.5 runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist Tigers currently have the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.3)
James Shields is tough to figure out as he has somehow managed to string together a streak of six straight quality starts. However, this recent “success” was preceded by a horrendous stretch where he allowed 31 runs in just four starts. Shields has a minuscule 5.4% K-BB% in this recent span that is accompanied by a 5.56 SIERA making it highly likely he will not be able to continue achieving these great results game-after-game. Piling on to the almost guaranteed regression for Shields, is that the Tigers lineup is primarily right-handed and Shields has surrendered a high 37.5% hard contact rate and 42.6% fly ball rate to righties this season. A full Tigers stack is certainly in play tonight but we should make Miguel Cabrera (160 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), and Ian Kinsler (.197 ISO vs RHP) our priorities in the Detroit lineup given their power upside in this matchup. Victor Martinez (115 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .181 ISO vs RHP) can also be considered as a pivot from Cabrera on DraftKings at first base or as a cash game play on FanDuel at the baron catcher position
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, James Shields Zack Eflin (11.8 K%) faces the Giants with just a 16.8 K% vs RHP
Zach Eflin doesn’t walk many (5.2%), but has just an 11.8 K% and is facing an offense with a 16.8 K% vs RHP. Unlike many matchups tonight, there are going to be a lot of balls in play in this one and as Eflin has allowed a wOBA between .310 and .325 to batters from both sides with a hard hit rate around one-third of the time either way, siding with moderately priced San Francisco bats is not a bad idea here. Everyone is below $4K on FanDuel or $4.5K on DraftKings with Pagan being the only below average bat either vs RHP or on the road since last season. Every other batter has a wRC+ of 105 or better in either situation. The returning Hunter Pence (142 wRC+ ,.187 ISO vs RHP since 2015) along with Brandon Belt (138 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Buster Posey (129 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the top bats in the lineup, but Span (121 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Crawford (117 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both solid plays on either site as well.
Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Zach Eflin, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford Yu Darvish has a 34.1 K% and 13.1 SwStr% over six starts this season
This is not a great spot for Yu Darvish, as the Orioles have a 16 HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but they also strike out a bit (22.3% vs RHP) and he has the highest strikeout rate on the board in three July starts (38.2%) with a 34.1 K% and 13.1 SwStr% in six starts overall this season. As no better than the fourth highest price tag on either site, Darvish may potentially provide the most point per dollar value tonight. While he’s held LHBs and RHBs to a wOBA below .280 since returning from injury this year, LHBs do have a 38.1 Hard% against him. Players looking for affordable bats with upside could consider Chris Davis (141 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $3.4K on DraftKings, though he’s been slumping (41 wRC+, .091 ISO last seven days) or Hyun-Soo Kim (146 wRC+ vs RHP) for $2.9K on either site, in a great lineup spot, but with much less power. Pedro Alvarez (115 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has some upside for $3K as well.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Hyun-Soo Kim, Pedro Alvarez Matt Kemp set to make Braves debut, Braves still come in with a low 3.3 implied run total versus Cole
Cole is coming off a fantastic outing his last time out pitching a complete game against a strong Seattle offense. It should be safe to assume that Cole is finally at full strength after posting a 21.1% K-BB% and 57.5% ground ball rate in his last two starts. It’s great to see the ground balls make their return for Cole since that’s where he finds a majority of his success with just an average 20.0% strikeout rate. He gets a great matchup tonight against the Braves who are one of the weakest offenses in the majors versus right-handed pitching (78 wRC+, .290 wOBA, .118 ISO). The Braves do make decent contact (19.7% K% vs RHP), making it difficult to seriously consider Cole in tournaments with the other high-upside arms on this slate. Cole is much more in play on FanDuel where he’s reasonably priced and is in a great spot to lock down the all important win.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds