DFS Alerts

Marcus Stroman had a 22.1 K% and 66.3 GB% in July

Marcus Stroman has made some real strides in July, including a 22.1 K% and a 66.3 GB% that brought his already major league best rate above 60% for the season. While the Astros strike out a lot (23.9% vs RHP), they do hit the ball hard (33.6% vs RHP). Though 26.5% of Stroman’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two months (with three of his nine HRs taking place in one strange game in Oakland), nearly 75% of batters have either struck out or hit the ball on the ground over the last 30 days, which doesn’t leave much upside for a Houston offense that is only marginal vs RHP (101 wRC+). Stroman looks to be a great value for a price around $8K or less tonight.

Numbers conclude Yankees LHB in great spot tonight versus Logan Verrett, but do they have the bats to take advantage?

Verrett (4.92 SIERA) has posted slightly below-average strikeout numbers (18.5% K%), slightly below-average ground ball rate (41.8%), and surrendered above-average hard contact (32.4%) to left-handed batters thus far in his career. This makes Verrett a pitcher that can be susceptible to a lefty-heavy lineup such as the Yankees. Now that Carlos Beltran has officially been traded, it’s tough to really get excited about the Yankees lefties in this spot. Brian McCann (110 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .195 ISO vs RHP) would be the top overall play for the Yankees at the barren catcher position. Chase Headley (104 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .164 ISO vs RHP) and Didi Gregorius (.180 ISO vs RHP) are both reasonably priced and will go way under the radar tonight in a plus matchup. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury can be considered even if solely for their prime lineup positions since they really lack the upside needed in tournaments.

Danny Salazar has cut down walks, but strikeouts too in July (23.0 K%, 8.8 SwStr%)

Danny Salazar has impressively cut his walk rate with just six total over his last five starts, but his 17.0 K-BB% in July is exactly his season rate because his strikeout rate diminished as well (23.0 K%, 8.8 SwStr%). Batted ball wise, his 54.9 GB% was the best of any month, but he’s also allowed a hard hit rate well above 35% the last two months now too. He’s still a high upside pitcher that we’re not going to attack with marginal Minnesota bats (25.1 K% on the road, 23.8 K% vs RHP), which make this a favorable matchup for him at home, but he may rate behind Archer (who is pitching much better) at a similar price tonight. Salazar is still certainly playable tonight though.

Berrios returns in tough matchup in Cleveland (124 wRC+ at home, 106 wRC+ vs RHP)

This is a tough spot for Jose Berrios to return to the majors tonight. He’s struck out over a quarter of batters faced both in the minors and majors this year, but his walk rate doubled to 16% in four major league starts. Cleveland has the best home offense in baseball (124 wRC+) and are a very patient offense (106 wRC+ and 8.7 BB% vs RHP), which makes this a terrible spot for him. In a small sample, players from both sides hit him hard with five of his 17 fly balls leaving the yard. Jason Kipnis (144 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top second base option tonight, while Jose Ramirez (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has a 232 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week and costs just $3K on FanDuel. For those who don’t mind expensive outfielders batting eighth, Tyler Naquin (181 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP and 217 wRC+ at home) has enormous upside.

Chris Archer is coming off a great July (3.38 ERA, 22.9 K-BB%) and facing a cold offense at home

Chris Archer has pitched well at home all season (2.95 ERA, 20.6 K-BB%) and has normalized his HR rate (13.4 HR/FB) over the last two months. In July, he finally put everything together overall (3.38 ERA, 22.9 K-BB%) despite starts in Boston and Colorado. He’s always had tremendous upside and if we can now have more confidence in his floor (he’s throwing harder and more sliders over the last month), Archer would be a bargain for between $9K to $10K against a struggling Kansas City offense with just a 78 wRC+ and 15.3 K-BB% on the road and just a 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Royals bats aren’t on our radar with Archer pitching so well, especially at home, but Kendrys Morales (121 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.4K on DraftKings. He does have a 99 mph aEV on his last four batted balls against Archer.

Gutierrez is a savvy play that often goes under-owned because of his platoon splits and less heralded name. Gutierrez has a wRC+ of 143 versu LHP, putting him in play for the late slate. He does not go without any drawbacks, considering his k% of 28% versus left-handed throwers. The game is being played in Chicago, which slightly boosts Gutierrez’s value, seeing that he has a higher wRC+ in away games, 127, compared to 105 in games played in Seattle. He will be batting 6th which is not ideal, but he should still receive three to four at-bats in a plus situation.

Mike Trout boasts a 4.89 wKN/C, highlighting his success against the knuckleball

Mike Trout has a 4.89 wKN/C, a number that quantifies his success against the knuckleball dating back to 2014. This number indicates the number of runs created above average and points to Trout having a productive day against Red Sox pitcher, Steven Wright. With 17 stolen bases this year, Trout has tremendous upside today, posing as a threat to hit one out of the park and steal a base of the knuckeballer.

Lefty-specialist Scott Van Slyke is a Sunday special, cleaning up versus LHP Patrick Corbin

Scott Van Slyke continues to put the ball in play against left-handed pitching, striking out a meager 15% of the time versus southpaws. His 0.200 ISO against LHP is still respectable, and his 138 wRC+ vs. LHP highlights his ability to put together productive at-bats. Patrick Corbin has not been overly impressive against RHBs this year, whiffing RHBs only 14% of the time and allowing hard contact 38% of the time. Van Slyke will look to hit the ball hard in the at-bats he gets early against Corbin, but does always carry some risk of getting pinch hit for in the later innings.

Duvall gets the chance to shine with Bruce out of the lineup and in limited innings, Paul Clemens has shown an inability to strike out RHBs

While the sample size is too small to come to any definitive conclusions, it is apparent through 11 innings of right-handed ABs that Clemens does not flash strike out upside, whiffing a paltry 8% of RHBs faced. With Jay Bruce out of the lineup, Adam Duvall will be cleaning up for the Reds. Duvall boasts a ridiculous 0.315 ISO against RHBs, but the downside with Duvall against RHP is his 27% k rate. Facing Clemens today should eliminate the strike out risk, leaving nothing but glorious upside for Duvall and the other right-handed Reds hitters.

Eduardo Nunez leading off for the Giants and facing Gio Gonzalez

Nunez will face southpaw Gio Gonzalez this afternoon in San Francisco and will be leading off for the Giants. Nunez has an impressive wRC+ of 123 this year against LHP and adds stolen base upside. Gio does have the ability to strike out RHBs, striking out RHBs 23% of the time, so there is some inherent risk in playing Nunez. Still, the SB upside makes Nunez a viable option at the middle-infield position.

Confirming the Kansas City lineup

1) Escobar 2) Cuthbert 3) Hosmer 4) Morales 5) Gordon 6) Orlando 7) Butera 8) Dyson 9) Mondesi. Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain are OUT. Morales now playing first base with Hosmer DH’ing.

Jay Bruce scratched

Bruce has been scratched Sunday and will be replaced by Jose Peraza, who will bat seventh.

As/Indians game will have a delayed start

Analysis coming soon.

David Wolter has posted his weather report and there is no ORANGE or RED to be found

David has posted his weather report and there appears that the games today should avoid any PPD risk. Check out his full report for details on possible pop-up showers in Atlanta and New York (Mets).

Carlos Rodon does not handle RHBs well and Brian Dozier is the quintessential lefty-smasher

Carlos Rodon does not handle right-handed batters well, possessing an xFIP of 4.45 against RHBs. On the other side of the ball, Brian Dozier has the benefit of leading off, which may lead to an extra at-bat, further raising his floor at 2B. Dozier has an extraordinary wRC+ versus lefties of 189, striking out only 16% of the time. Look to Dozier as a high potential play today versus Rodon.