DFS Alerts
Torrey Smith (shoulder) expected to play Sunday
Smith will return to action today after missing last week’s game. He isn’t a viable option in fantasy as he’s averaged 3.0 targets over his past three games. Both Quinton Patton and Jeremy Kerley should see more targets against the Dolphins today. Neither player is worth much more than a tournament flier.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport
Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett, and Julian Edelman are all expected to play Sunday
Hogan (back) was the only truly questionable player of the trio. He’s only exceeded five targets once this season, so he isn’t a great fantasy option, even against the Jets’ poor secondary. Martellus Bennett’s fantasy value takes a hit with Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. Edelman is coming off a big game against the 49ers; he caught 8-of-17 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. His target share was so high because the Patriots were without Hogan and Gronk. That number should come back down to earth, but it should still hover around 10. He will have to deal with Marcus Williams’ shadow coverage today though. Williams has a solid 74.6 PFF grade this season. Still, Edelman is in play for tournaments as the Patriots are expected to go pass-heavy today.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman Travis Benjamin (knee) will play Sunday
Benjamin got in a full week of practice after missing the Chargers’ last game. He’s got a tough matchup today against the Texans, who allow just 207 passing yards per game, the third lowest mark in the league. Tyrell Williams has supplanted Benjamin as the Chargers’ number one wideout in recent weeks. He should see more targets than Travis today. Even so, Benjamin has big play potential that keeps him worth consideration in tournaments, it just isn’t a great spot to roll the dice today.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Tyrell Williams T.J. Yeldon is a "longshot" to play Sunday
This leaves Chris Ivory as Jacksonville’s workhorse back against the Bills, who rank 19th in rush DVOA. In the two games he’s had more than 13 touches this season, he’ exceeded 100 total yards. That includes last week, when he had 114 total yards on 17 rushes and six receptions. Ivory should have a floor of around 16 touches today, and could easily get up around 25. The Jaguars are 9-point underdogs, but considering he had six catches last week, Ivory should remain a part of the game plan if they get down early. He’s a sneaky tournament option.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Chris Ivory Mark Ingram (concussion) will play Sunday
Ingram had been practicing all week after suffering a concussion against the Panthers last Thursday. He’s not in a great spot today. Los Angeles’ defensive line ranks first in adjusted line yards per carry (3.11), according to Football Outsiders. The other issue is that he finds himself in a time share with Tim Hightower. Even though the Saints are 7.5-point favorites, it will be hard to trust Ingram to produce a great game in this situation. If you’re looking to get exposure on the Saints offense in the Superdome, consider Michael Thomas. The rookie receiver will line up across from E.J. Gaines on more than 50% of his routes. Gaines has a 38.2 PFF grade, the fourth lowest among all cornerbacks.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Rob Gronkowski (chest) and Tom Brady (knee) both expected to play Sunday
Gronk made progress over the past couple of days and was able to get cleared by team doctors. Brady has “swelling and soreness” in his knee, according to Adam Schefter, but he’ll play through it. Both players have an excellent matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. New England will likely come out throwing and stay pass-heavy most of the day as the Jets have been solid at stopping the run, they rank 2nd in rush DVOA.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Tom Brady Larry Fitzgerald looks to capitalize on Atlanta's struggle to defend the slot
There should be plenty of scoring in the Cardinals-Falcons game tomorrow, the game total is currently set at 51 points. Arizona will be 5.5-point underdogs, which presents positive game flow for their passing offense. Fortunately, Atlanta has allowed 40.7 PPR points to receivers per game, according to Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett, which is the third highest rate in the league. They struggle to defend the slot in particular, allowing 17.8 PPR points to the position, just 0.2 points shy of the league-leading Dallas Cowboys. This trend is at least partially due to Desmond Trufant’s success covering outside wide outs. Arizona’s number one receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, happens to be their slot receiver. He should be a target monster in this matchup as he has been all year; he averages 10.6 passes per game, which is the third most in the league. In a fast-paced game where the Cardinals will need to score a lot to stay competitive, Palmer will surely want to exploit his opponent’s biggest weakness and rely on the consistent veteran receiver. Fitzgerald hasn’t had a single game below 10.9 DraftKings points this season, and he’s exceeded 26 DK points three times. He’s in a great spot in Week 12 and is a strong play in all formats.
As reported by: Scott Barrett Thomas Rawls ready to eat against Tampa Bay
Seattle’s plan to ease Rawls back into the lineup is out the window now that C.J. Prosise (scapula) is out for several weeks. Rawls is going to be a workhorse for Seattle against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Fortunately for Rawls, the Bucs rank 20th in rush DVOA and their defensive line ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards per carry. Game flow should be in his favor as the Seahawks are favored by 6.0 points. Even if it ends up closer, or going the other way, Rawls should produce fantasy points. As RotoWorld’s Evan Silva points out, Rawls is just one target shy of his total from last season (11), and he’s only played in three games. Prosise was the passing down back, but Rawls will assume those duties going forward. His backup, Alex Collins, will not be a threat to his target share. Based on his skill, expected volume, and opponent, Rawls is a strong option in all formats this weekend.
Packers CB Damarious Randall questionable for Monday
Randall (groin) hasn’t played since Week 6, but he’s on track to make his return on Monday night against the Eagles. Green Bay could use him, their depleted defense has allowed at least 30 points for four straight games. Philadelphia has averaged 222 passing yards per game, the eight fewest in the league. The Eagles receivers have struggled this season, and Nelson Agholor may be inactive due to mental struggles. It could be a bounce-back spot for the Packers defense.
As reported by: Rob Demovsky Michael Thomas has a great matchup Sunday
New Orleans host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, who rank 12th in pass DVOA. While the Rams’ secondary as been good as a unit, they have a major weakness: E.J. Gaines, their right cornerback. Gaines has a 38.2 PFF grade, the fourth lowest of all cornerbacks. He’s allowed 0.39 fantasy points per route defended, which is the sixth highest rate in the league. Quarterbacks have taken notice, targeting him on 22% of the routes he defends, which is only 2% lower than league-leader Perrish Cox. Saints receiver Michael Thomas will see Gaines the most on Sunday, he lines up on his side on over half of his snaps. Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks will pair up with Trumaine Johnson (79 PFF grade) and Willie Snead will be guarded by Lamarcus Joyner (81.6) in the slot. Thomas clearly has the best individual matchup of the trio. It also helps that Los Angeles’ defensive line is one of the best at stopping the run, but struggle to apply pressure on the quarterback. Football Outsiders ranks the Rams 1st in adjusted line yards per carry (3.11), but 27th in adjusted sack rate (5.0%). There’s a good chance New Orleans will struggle to get anything going on the ground and need to rely on their passing game. Drew Brees should have time in the pocket and he’ll likely pick on E.J. Gaines all day. Thomas could lead the team in targets and should be able to be effective with those opportunities.
Sammy Watkins officially activated from IR
Watkins (foot) will be limited this weekend as he hasn’t played since Week 2. He’s a player worth watching though. The Bills are very thin at receiver and he could become a solid fantasy option in the coming weeks. As for Week 12, Buffalo will start Marquise Goodwin and either Brandon Tate or Justin Hunter at receiver, and they’re hopeful that Percy Harvin (illness) will have an increased role. None of them are great fantasy options. Look for Buffalo to give LeSean McCoy as much work as he can handle. Jacksonville ranks 13th in pass DVOA and 23rd against the rush. He’s a bit banged up too, but his backup Mike Gillislee is out. Buffalo enters the game as 7.5-point favorites, so game flow should also help Shady. We’re projecting him as our RB5 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
As reported by: Mike Garafolo Other tagged players: LeSean McCoy Ryan Mathews ruled out for Monday's game versus GB
The Eagles have ruled out Ryan Mathews for Monday’s versus Green Bay. The Packers run defense started the year strong but has shown signs of weakness of late. Some will assume that Mathews absence benefits Darren Sproles. There should be some additional work for Sproles but Wendell Smallwood should step in to fill Mathews role. Smallwood is interesting in the primetime slate in a matchup where he should see 15-20 touches. Over the past four weeks, the Packers have been pounded for combined rushing lines of 17-81-1 (Falcons), 21-70-2 (Colts), 26-154-1 (Titans), and 26-147-3 (Redskins) by enemy backs.
As reported by: Zach Berman Other tagged players: Wendell Smallwood, Darren Sproles
Tom Brady expected to play Sunday, Gronkowski a game time decision
Brady (knee) returned to a limited practice yesterday. ESPN’s Dianna Russini reports that Brady is expected to play tomorrow. She also reported that Gronk has made “a lot of progress the last 24-48 hours.” Apparently the team’s doctors are optimistic he can play, but he’s a true game time decision. Unfortunately, the game doesn’t start until 4:25 pm, so we may not know Gronkowksi’s status before lock. If he plays, he’ll have a nice matchup with an exploitable Jets’ pass defense. If he doesn’t, Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman should pick up some extra targets. Even though the Patriots are favored by 7.5 points, game flow may not be a huge issue for their passing offense. New York ranks 30th in pass DVOA and 2nd in rush DVOA. New England will probably need to pass quite a bit to move the football and score points. Brady projects as our QB4 on FanDuel and QB1 on DraftKings this week, in terms of raw points.
As reported by: Dianna Russini Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski Jarvis Landry will play through questionable tag Sunday
Landry wore a non-contact jersey all week in practice to protect his injured shoulder. The team fully expects to play tomorrow though and Landry said he’s close to 100 percent. Miami hosts San Francisco on Sunday, which is a nice matchup for the Dolphins offensive players. The 49ers have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (23) and the third-most rushing touchdowns (13). Miami will primarily attack the 49ers on the ground with Jay Ajayi, and will likely find success. Since Ajayi became the feature back, Landry’s target numbers have dropped from 11 passes per game through the first four weeks to 6.2 over the past six. Fortunately for Landry, the 49ers have struggled against slot receivers the past two weeks. Julian Edelman caught eight passes for 77 yards and a touchdown this past weekend and Larry Fitzgerald hauled in 12 balls for 132 yards the week prior. While Landry hasn’t been a target monster recently, it’s a very good matchup to change that trend. He has tournament appeal this weekend, especially on full PPR sites. We’re currently projecting him as the 5th points-per-dollar wide receiver on DraftKings.
As reported by: Palm Beach Post Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett OUT for Sunday
Jameis Winston and Mike Evans will see a little boost with Thomas out. The Seahawks are 6-point favorites, which means Winston will probably need to throw quite a bit. Evans will be shadowed by Richard Sherman, but we’re still projecting him as our second receiver on FanDuel, in terms of raw points, and fourth on DraftKings. For what it’s worth, Winston has been saying all week that he isn’t afraid to go after Sherman, adding that his connection with Mike Evans can overcome any cornerback. Evans should still see a high volume of targets, it’s just a question of whether he can be effective with his opportunities or not. It will certainly help that Thomas won’t be there to help Sherman over the top.
As reported by: Bob Condotta Other tagged players: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans