DFS Alerts

Julius Thomas does not practice

Thomas continues to battle an ankle injury that has not caused him to miss a game yet. He should be able to play this weekend against the Colts who are dead last in DVOA against TE’s. If he is unable to go, Mercedes Lewis would likely be the biggest beneficiary. We’ll keep you updated on Thomas’s status leading up to kickoff.

Jimmy Garoppolo throwing in practice

The current starting QB for the Patriots continues to progress nicely as he was seen throwing in practice today. He should be the starter for the team this week when they take on the Bills with Jacoby Brissett waiting in the helms if something happens. It’s their last week to have fun in the sun, however, as Tom Brady will return from his four game suspension next week.

DeSean Jackson not practicing for Redskins

Jackson is battling an ankle injury that caused him to miss practice last week. While considered questionable to play this week, he was still able to play last week and put up a 5 reception, 96 yard, 1 TD outing against the Giants. He has a great match up against the Browns this week but if he is unable to go it would be Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed who would benefit the most. We’ll keep an eye on Jackson’s status throughout the week and update you as more information comes in.

Charcandrick West misses practice with sprained ankle

No word on the severity of the injury but West has been a non-factor behind Spencer Ware and with Jamaal Charles inching closer to returning (he might do so this week), he’s an easy avoid this week. We’ll keep you updated, however, on any news that comes in regarding him as it’ll impact Ware’s and Charles’s potential usage.

Sammy Watkins misses practice again

Watkins continues to miss practice as he battles his foot injury. He missed last weeks game and his status for this weeks tilt against the Patriots seems uncertain to say the least. The Patriots are a tough match up regardless. We’ll keep an eye on Watkins’s status and update you if anything changes.

Dez Bryant does not practice

Dez Bryant did not practice today for the Cowboys as they continue to evaluate his injured right knee. His status for this weekend continues to remain uncertain – Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams, and Jason Witten would all receive a bump in usage if Bryant is unable to go. We’ll keep you updated throughout the week on any news regarding Bryant.

Kenneth Dixon set to return to practice

Rookie RB Kenneth Dixon looked like the Ravens best back in preseason before suffering a knee injury that has led to him missing the 3-0 Ravens first three games. He is set to return to practice this week although it’s not certain if he will be able to play this weekend when they take on the Raiders. He’s $3,300 on DraftKings and the minimum price ($4,500) on FanDuel and makes for an intriguing GPP play if they announce that he will play. His return would be a definite hit on the value of Justin Forsett and Terrance West in a plus match up (Raiders are 27th in DVOA and 28th in run DVOA).

Terrelle Pryor is still too cheap on DraftKings

Despite an impressive week where he put up 34.9 DraftKings fpts at $3,400, the price on Terrelle Pryor didn’t noticeably increase on DraftKings where he is WR43 in terms of pricing at $4,300 (it’s a different argument at FanDuel where he is WR22 at $7,000). Given that Cody Kessler is in line for another start at QB, Pryor should again receive all kinds of utilization at QB and WR in addition to RB looks out of the Wildcat. It’s also a great match up against the Redskins who are 25th in defensive DVOA. There is definitely some risk involved and he’ll come in at higher ownership than he did last week due to recency bias but the upside is hard to ignore, especially given his price. He also makes for an interesting play at FanDuel in GPP’s as people are going to be hesitant to pay $7K for him.

Houston’s prized defensive weapon, J.J. Watt, re-aggravated a back injury that was suppose to keep him out of the first two or three games. He ended up playing through it, but now may be out for many weeks, if not the season. This will be a major blow to a defense that has been pretty solid this year. The Texans host the Titans this weekend. Marcus Mariota does much better on the road than at home, his average QB rating is over 20 points higher when the Titans play away games. Without Watt, the Texans may struggle to get pressure on the mobile quarterback.

The Jags “host” the Colts at Wembley Stadium in London this weekend, here’s some historical data to look out for if you’re considering slates that include the game — keep in mind it is NOT on the main slates for most sites. In the 15 games since 2005:

Games tend to be blowouts. Average winning score: 32.1. Average losing score: 16.5.

Average halftime lead is 14.7 points. Only two teams have come back to win after trailing at the break.

There have been eight 300+ yard passers, only one game had two 300-yard passers — Brees and Rivers way back in 2008. Just one 300-yard passer in last six games (Matthew Stafford ’14)

Five QBs have had three-touchdown games, only one in last eight games (Tony Romo ’14).

There have been twelve 100+ yard receivers, and three games with at least two 100-yard receivers.

Four receivers have had multi-TD games, only one over past six games (Dez Bryant ’14).

There have been nine 100+ yard rushers, never two in one game. Six running backs have had multi-TD games, two in past six games (Denard Robinson ’14 and Lamar Miller ’14).

In the 2015 regular season (all 256 games, not just London), teams combined for an average of 3.9 field goal attempts per game. London games have averaged 2.8, with at least one kicker failing to attempt a single field goal in 9 games.

Takeaways: London games tend to be a bit sloppy, and tough to predict fantasy-wise as both teams are jetlagged. Most games have one team start hot out of the gate while the other struggles. There are more trends suggesting to fade London games than target them, especially when it comes to kickers. However, it seems like correctly picking the hot team can lead to fantasy value in the skill positions.

For the Jags/Colts game: Vegas line movements may help us in determining the team to target. Jacksonville opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but bettors aggressively bet on Indy, causing an immediate 5-point swing. Currently, the Colts are favored by 2.5 points. Andrew Luck is 17-2 vs divisional opponents and 19-20 against the rest of the league, which bodes well for his chances this weekend. Given that the Jaguars rank 29th against #1 WRs, T.Y. Hilton may be the man to roster here. It is interesting to note that old man Frank Gore has played there three times. Over his last two trips he accumulated 189 yards and 3 tds on the ground.

Seahawks don't work out or sign a QB, which bodes well for Russell Wilson's status

Seattle is still hopeful that Russell Wilson will be able to return to action this Sunday against the Jets, a match-up that bodes pretty well for the Seahawks passing game. New York remains stout on the ground, although Christine Michael is still squarely in play on sites that haven’t been quick to bump his price in the wake of Thomas Rawls’ injury. He’s still likely to see around 20 touches and shouldn’t cede goal-line work to any of the backs behind him. As for Wilson, he’ll be a potential GPP play in Week 4, but can’t be trusted for cash games at this point. He’s best paired with Doug Baldwin, who runs most of his routes out of the slot and therefore should avoid Darrelle Revis (who bounced back in Week 3). Jimmy Graham is also a viable option after Travis Kelce burned the Jets for 6-89-1 on seven targets, especially after Graham himself was very involved in the offense this past week for the first time all season. Trevone Boykin will start at QB if Wilson is unable to go, and he’d be a viable punt play given that he’s still priced at the minimum on most outlets.

Spencer Ware separating himself from Charcandrick West

His snap count has risen each week since the beginning of the season. In Week 1 the share was split evenly at 34, or 48% between he and West, in Week 2 Ware slipped ahead to 56% against 41%. Week 3 represented a sizable bump: against the Jets, Ware was on the field for 45 plays (71%) while West got in on just 14 (22%). He received 20 carries to West’s 3; on the season the split is 41 to 12. It appears the Chiefs have a clear favorite back while Jamaal Charles remains out. Although Coach Andy Reid stated Charles could play this weekend against the Steelers, it seems unlikely. It’s a great matchup for Ware if Charles does remain sidelined. Team’s attack the Steelers in a similar fashion as the Chargers, the Chiefs’ Week 1 opponent, by utilizing running backs as receivers. The Chiefs’ opponents in Week 2 and 3 have averaged 4.25 passes per game to RBs on the season, while the Steelers and Chargers allow 10.45, per Football Outsiders. Last week Darren Sproles tore apart the Steelers defense with a 6/128/1 receiving line, which was quite similar to Ware’s 7/129/0 in Week 1. With the Chief’s heading into Week 4 as 6-point underdogs, it could be a great spot to target Ware, especially on full PPR sites.

Patriots have yet to sign a QB, which bodes well for status of Garoppolo/Brissett

With the Pats not signing a QB today (at least as of this writing), it appears that at least one of Garoppolo or Brissett will be healthy enough to take the field in Week 4. Julian Edelman is still able to act as an emergency QB which does alleviate the need for a back-up, and at this point it seems slightly more likely that Garoppolo will be under center against the Bills. He’ll be a very risky DFS target with the injury concerns, as will most of the Patriots offense outside of LeGarrette Blount, who should see 20 touches yet again with the Pats coming in as small favorites (-4.5, although most books haven’t released a line for this contest yet). Rob Gronkowski is also an interesting GPP target after seeing just one target in his season debut this past Thursday – he should be much more involved against Buffalo.

Miami will continue to use a four-man RB Committee

While Arian Foster remains sidelined the Phins will rotate Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams, and Isaiah Pead at running back. There is no reason to target any of these players in fantasy, even starter, Kenyan Drake, managed just 11 touches against the Browns this past weekend. Plus, Cincinnatti hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown yet this season. It’ll be much more prosperous to roster players in the Miami passing game if you’re playing Thursday slates.

Julio Jones back to full practices this week

Coming off a disappointing 16-yard performance, Jones will be back to a full workload this week to prepare for the Carolina Panthers. He’s been dealing with a calf strain. Given his poor fantasy performance last night, the question is whether his injury had been worse last week than the Falcons lead on, or if OC Kyle Shanahan’s 2016 spread-the-ball-around game plan just isn’t great for the stud receiver. Matt Ryan has completed a pass to at least 8 receivers in each of their first three games. After a monster 32.9% team target share in 2015, in 2016 Jones has just 19.4% of the teams looks. Four Falcons have as many or more red zone targets than he does, including the #3 WR, Justin Hardy (who also has 2 touchdowns). Here’s the good news: Julio Jones is still an elite receiver, and DFS players can be very reactive week to week. His ownership will likely be supressed in this week’s contests. Their matchup against the Panthers has another high total of 50 points, which is great. However, Carolina has been effective against the pass — 5th-fewest yards and just 4 passing touchdowns allowed — and Football Outsiders ranks them 8th in defending #1 WRs this season. They do struggle with receiving running backs though, ranking 25th, which looks good for the Falcons RB tandem of Freeman and Coleman. Regardless, Jones is an elite receiver and can put up big numbers against any defense. For the above reasons, plenty of people will be scared of Jones this weekend, but if he’s truly back to full health perhaps Ryan and Shanahan will get back to focusing on their best player.