DFS Alerts

Rams RB Todd Gurley (Quad) is Out Sunday Vs. San Francisco

Gurley was trending toward not playing since Thursday, and now he has been officially ruled out. Malcolm Brown likely draws the start, while rookie Darrell Henderson and John Kelly should see some snaps in the backfield as well.

Brown is priced close to the minimum across the industry, making him a cash game lock and probably the highest-owned tournament player of the main slate (unless David Johnson ends up getting ruled out for the Cardinals, which would make Chase Edmonds a lock-and-load play at running back as well). Brown’s cheap price tag provides incredible salary relief that will probably increase the ownership of expensive studs such as Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, and Travis Kelce.

The matchup isn’t great – the 49ers rank 5th in DVOA against the run – but the volume Brown is projected to see is too good to fade. The Rams are also home favorites with a 26.75 implied total in an important divisional game that could end up deciding the winner of the NFC West. Although the Rams traded up to select Henderson in the third round in the 2019 NFL draft, he has only seen the field for one carry so far this season. Remember, the Rams matched an offer sheet to retain Brown this offseason, which shows they trust him to carry the load.

Packers WR Davante Adams Ruled Out for Monday Night

As expected, Adams (toe) will not play on Monday Night Football vs. the Lions. Adams’ 25% target share will be disbursed among the rest of the Green bay pass catchers, making them more appealing tournament plays.

Jets QB Luke Falk Waived

In a surprising move, the Jets have waived backup QB Luke Falk. He may be added back to the Jets practice squad, but the team also could make an attempt to get another backup signal caller.

Originally the Jets’ QB3 before Darnold and Trevor Siemian went down, Falk was forced into significant action in three games. He attempted 73 passes, did not score a touchdown, turned the ball over five times, and managed to accrue less than 12 total FPs in those games.

Redskins are Placing TE Jordan Reed on Injured Reserve

Reed had a great training camp, but the often-injured tight end will have yet another season cut short. It is fair to wonder if the talented pass catcher will ever play another NFL down in his career. Jeremy Sprinkle will get the start this week against Miami, but veteran Vernon Davis should take the first-string role back when he returns from his injury.

Packers WR Davante Adams (Toe) not Practicing this Morning

Adams appears increasingly unlikely to suit up against Detroit on Monday Night Football. Last week without the star wide receiver, Aaron Jones actually led the team in target share (24%) on the way to his slate-breaking four-touchdown performance. Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw 43% of the air yards share for the Packers, despite seeing just half the targets Jones saw.

Because both teams will look to establish balanced offensive attacks, MVS and Allison are not great cash plays on full slates although they are relatively cheap. Detroit is relatively average in DVOA vs. the pass and FPs allowed to WRs, so they are tournament viable in contests ranging from the full slate to single-game GPPs.

Eagles Promote Boston Scott to 53-Man Roster

Scott will be on the roster now with Corey Clement headed to IR.

Steelers CB Steven Nelson Downgraded to Out for Sunday Night’s Game Vs. the Chargers

With Nelson out, Artie Burns may draw the start against the Chargers.

Great Week 6 GPP Pivot At The Chalky Value RB Position

Kenyan Drake is not someone most people love to play, but he’s someone I love to play, even in some very bad spots that he has found himself in this year. Well, this week, he has easily his best matchup of the year… and now we find out that Kalen Ballage has popped up on the injury report after a Friday injury. Drake has been mindlessly (thanks to coaching) splitting work with the likes of Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton. While Walton appeared to have possibly passed Ballage on the depth chart in their last game after he received 25% of the snaps compared to Ballage, I would still expect an increase in work for Drake who is clearly the better player, and the more trusted passing down back in this offense. While it is never sexy to use someone from the generationally bad Dolphins, a matchup against the Redskins is about as good as it gets. Not only will they have their best chance to produce points, this is by far the most likely game in which they could potentially keep the score close enough to keep the run game involved. If Ballage does in fact get ruled out, he is vacating 14% of the team’s opportunities, 27% of the rushing share, and 7% of the team’s targets. While it is possible Walton takes some of these, Drake should be first on the the priority list in all facets of the game for the Dolphins.

Expect Positive Regression From This Young QB

It’s kind of crazy that we, well maybe just me, are talking about positive regression from a QB who is currently 10th in fantasy points amongst QBs and is 1 of 3 QBs to have 15+ fantasy points in every game so far this season, but I am. Murray is 3rd in drop backs, 6th in true completion , 3rd in rush attempts amongst QBs, and 4th in RZ pass attempts so far this season. All of these positive stats, yet just 4 passing TD so far this season. With the frequency in which the Cardinals are reaching the red zone, Kyler Murray is in for some major positive regression in the passing TD category. The only issue with Kyler is his lack of air yards and average depth of target. However, there is even hope of positive regression here as well, as Kyler is completing 50 of his 5.6 deep attempts per game. Murray is a good play on DK but on FD he is easily my #1 QB thanks to pricing – on DK he is the 4th-most expensive QB while on FD he is the 11th.

Ageless Wonder WR in Amazing Spot This Week

Larry Fitzgerald enters Week 6 after disappointing in Week 5 against the Bengals, however he gets another great matchup here that we can take advantage of at a low price point. Christian Kirk might be returning for this one, and while that doesn’t help Fitz, I don’t think it hurts him very much. Larry Fitz and the Cardinals have been one of the most inefficient teams in the red zone so far this year, so inefficient that I think its about time for some positive regression in this one. So far this season, Kyler Murray has the lowest TD rate of any QB that has started 3+ games, despite averaging nearly 6 RZ pass attempts per game and being third in drop backs. In turn, Fitz is a direct beneficiary of this expected positive regression thanks to his team-high 7 red zone targets. With the Falcons allowing TDs from the red zone at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL, expect Fitz and the rest of this Cardinals offense to bounce back in a big way.

Fair-Priced RB Fantasy Gold Mine

Devonta Freeman has been overlooked much of the season due to his extremely poor first few week, however, he has turned it around over the last two weeks and is trending in a positive direction going into a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Although the Falcons have struggled to play well as a team, they are near 3 point favorites on the road and being implied 27 points according to Vegas. Freeman’s overall production has not been great mostly due to his lack of TDs, just one this season, but considering he is receiving over 63% of the team’s carries and nearly 12% of team targets (in an offense with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu), is fairly impressive. All of these numbers are even more exciting when you consider his price and ownership. Freeman is one of my favorite ways to get tournament exposure to this high total, fast-paced game.

Potentially Overlooked WR In Projected High Scoring Game

Cooper Kupp has been one of, if not the most consistent fantasy WR through the first 5 games of the season. In a game where the Rams will be missing starting RB Todd Gurley and possibly Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp is in a position to further capitalize on a great role in this Rams offense. Kupp leads the Rams in target share at 27% and while his air yards are third on the team, his yards after the catch makes up for that as he is currently the #2 ranked WR in that category. The 49ers have been a stiff defense so far this year, but when you factor in the “tough” matchup as well as being priced around guys like Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kupp’s ownership come in far too low, despite being on the team with the 3rd-highest total on the slate and in a game with a 50+ point total.

Underpriced Workhorse RB

Le’Veon Bell enters Week 6 coming off a couple down performances, with no real help from 3rd-string QB play. This week, Bell gets his starting QB back, which should, in turn, make this offense more efficient. While I don’t expect this offense to become an elite one overnight thanks to the return of Darnold, the usage that Bell is receiving should go along way in paying off this cheap price tag. Bell is playing 96% of the snaps, and receiving a league-high 50.49% of the team’s opportunities. Make no mistake, this team runs through Bell whether they are ahead or trailing, so game script does not matter much here. This point is evident by his 26.67% target share. Bell is a cash game lock, and as of Thursday our ownership projections have him under 25% of both sites, I am okay with that ownership in GPPs as well.

Too Much Volume to Ignore

Kupp, in four out of his first five games, has had 20+ DK points to go with double-digit targets. Whether Cooks plays or not, Kupp is still a great play with plenty of upside. He should be much lower owned than all of the offensive weapons with his price being higher on both DK and FanDuel.

Great Matchup For This Receiver

I have been rostering receivers against the Eagles all year, as their defense is very good against the run but has struggled to stop the pass. Adam Thielen had a great game last week and Cousins should again be able to have success in this matchup facing off with one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Vikings should come out throwing as they try to build more confidence in Cousins, and Thielen looks like his preferred target.