DFS Alerts
Mike Williams practiced Wednesday
Williams (knee) could return this weekend but he’s just a part-time player. He’d likely take some snaps from Travis Benjamin if he plays.
Sterling Shepard didn't practice Wednesday
Shepard is dealing with a hamstring issue. If he’s able to play this weekend, Cowboys CB Orlando Scandrick’s absence should help him in the slot. Shepard only picked up six targets from Geno Smith last week but he has a good shot to see the most looks on the team with Eli Manning under center – he averaged 11 targets in the two games he played with Manning as the WR1 this season. Despite missing time due to injury, he remains the team leader in red zone targets (9) and he’s just one behind Evan Engram inside the ten-yard line (5). On top of that, he’s seventh among receivers in yards per route run when lined up inside (1.9, per PFF).
This TE Will Get WR-Like Volume
Cameron Brate was going to be my initial target at the TE position, but I can’t resist Anderson and his usage. He had five catches for 79 yards and a TD on 12 targets last week. Tom Savage is awful, but he funnels a lot of his passing to the TE position, and with all the injuries at WR for the Texans, he’s also lining up at WR, which means more opportunities for him. He has a realistic opportunity at double-digit targets, so at this price you should just play him. I will have 30 to 40 percent of Anderson in my lineups this week.
Greg Olsen won't have snap count Week 14
Coach Ron Rivera said Olsen was a full participant in practice today and he won’t need to be limited this weekend when the Panthers take on the Vikings. It’s still hard to know what to expect and the Vikings are allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points to TEs this season. Even so, with few effective options in the passing game left on the team, if he’s truly ready for a full complement of snaps, he could pick up plenty of targets. It’ll be worth monitoring his progress over the course of the week.
This WR Won't Let Us Down This Week
He’s let us down several times, including last week, but now is the time to go back to Davis, especially when everyone will be paying for the plethora of stud mid-tier RBs. He hasn’t quite burst onto the scene like everyone thought he would, but this is a perfect matchup for us to go to him. Rishard Matthews should draw Patrick Peterson coverage, which will allow us to do what we have done all season in targeting WR2s and WR3s against the Cardinals. With Davis’ size and athleticism, he should make plays and is one of the better under-the-radar, cheap plays this week. We get a nice discount here, and I think everyone will be scared off of him after the duds he has been putting up. He has 100-yard, multi-TD upside and I will be sticking with him this week – he’ll be 20 to 30 percent owned in my lineups.
Jordan Reed ruled out for Week 14
Vernon Davis will remain the starting tight end. After a nice stretch in which Davis posted between 58-76 yards in seven of eight games, he’s disappeared. Over the past two weeks, he was only targeted twice. He has a tough matchup with the Chargers this weekend, whose defense has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points to TEs this season.
Other tagged players: Vernon Davis Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict, CB Adam Jones, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, and CB Darqueze Dennard aren't practicing Wednesday
Mixon suffered a concussion Monday night and wasn’t able to participate in the team’s walkthrough today. If he misses any time, Giovani Bernard would step into the featured role. He tallied 15 touches in Week 13 for 96 total yards while third-string runner Brian Hill didn’t touch the ball once or log a snap. Cincy could be dangerously thin on defense with their top three corners all dealing with injury issues and their best linebacker, Burfict, in the concussion protocol. Fortunately for them, the Bears are running the fewest passing plays in the league (27.9 per game). Burfict’s absence would help Jordan Howard. He’s earned PFF’s tenth-best run defense grade and the 12th best run-stop rate among linebackers. Howard has only averaged 13.3 touches per game over the past four weeks though and his snap share has also trended in the wrong direction while Chicago has been getting the other backs involved. Even though the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to RBs and rank 29th in adjusted line yards, it’ll be hard to trust Howard to get enough volume to exploit the matchup.
Other tagged players: Cincinnati Bengals Doug Martin and DE Robert Ayers are practicing Wednesday; CB Vernon Hargreaves isn't participating
Martin and Ayers are working through the concussion protocol while Hargreaves has missed the past three games with a hamstring injury. Even if Martin clears the protocol, he’s in danger of losing his starting job. He’s been wholly ineffective this season, failing to return more than 3.9 yards per carry in any full game this season. Peyton Barber filled in and eclipsed 100 rushing yards (102) while adding four receptions for 41 yards. He may have earned another shot to be the featured guy against the Lions this weekend. Detroit has allowed the third-most PPR points to backs over the past four weeks, so it could be a nice spot to target Barber in that scenario. It’s a backfield to watch this week. On the defensive side of things, Ayers is one of their best run-stoppers and his return would help the Bucs defense on the ground.
Other tagged players: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Peyton Barber Chris Hogan is practicing Wednesday
It’s good timing with Rob Gronkowski suspended this week. If Hogan is able to return for their game against Miami, he could pick up some of Gronk’s vacated looks in scoring position. Despite missing the past three games, Hogan remains second on the team in red zone targets (11) and he’s tied with Gronkowski with a team-high seven passes inside the ten-yard line. The Dolphins are one of the worst red zone teams in the business, allowing a touchdown on 71% of their opponents’ trips into the red zone which is the highest rate in the league. Although Hogan has only topped five receptions once, that game came when Gronkowski was sidelined – he posted an 8/11/74/1 line against the Buccaneers in that one which also marked a season-high in targets. The Dolphins are 29th in pass DVOA and the Patriots have the highest implied total on the board (29 points).
Falcons CBs Desmond Trufant and Brian Poole expected to play Week 14
Atlanta’s best CB, Trufant, cleared the concussion protocol ahead of their Thursday night showdown with the Saints. He’ll primarily see Ted Ginn as he stays on the left side. The receiver is a low-volume boom-or-bust option. Considering he has the tougher matchup than Michael Thomas and the Falcons are allowing the most receptions (6.5/g) and third-most receiving touchdowns to RBs (0.33/g), it’ll be difficult for Ginn to boom. It’s one of the best spots for Alvin Kamara, who leads RBs in yards per route run (2.65, per PFF), and has caught at least five passes for five straight weeks while scoring three receiving TDs during that stretch. Thomas continued his consistent play last weekend, hauling in five catches for 70 yards and he ended his seven-game scoring drought. He shouldn’t have much of a problem leading the team in targets again. Poole will likely see a combination of Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead in the slot. While he’s allowing a very friendly 80% catch rate and the seventh-most yards per cover snap (1.37), Coleman and Snead have been part-time players the past couple of weeks and neither has seen more than two targets during that span.
Other tagged players: Brandon Coleman, Willie Snead, Ted Ginn This Target Monster WR Gets His QB of Choice Back This Week
I loved Sterling Shepard this week even before the Giants announced that Eli Manning would return at QB and now he’s a near lock. He is one of the most under rated receivers in the NFL and is looking at up to 15 targets against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs. Shepard had 13 targets in Eli’s last start against the 49ers on his way to a 11 for 142 outing. Those numbers can be duplicated this weekend in Big D, and there is the potential for some touchdowns from the young stud. I don’t know what else to say about this except this… PLAY HIM! I will have at least 50% exposure to Shepard this week.
Chiefs CB Marcus Peters suspended for Week 14
It’s a team-imposed suspension for leaving the field Sunday after throwing a flag into the stands – Peters thought he got ejected but he hadn’t been. His absence will be an upgrade for Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper if he plays. Peters was the best corner on the team but he’s only earned PFF’s 35th-best coverage grade this season. As a unit, the Chiefs have played poorly. They’re allowing the second-most PPR points to receivers this season and rank 24th in pass DVOA. The rest of their corners have graded out as 82nd or worse with yards per route defended between 1.53-2.06. To put that in perspective those ypcs rates would be between the sixth-most and most if they all qualified. If Cooper sits, Crabtree could enjoy an increase in targets in a terrific spot.
Other tagged players: Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper This QB Will Air It Out Against This Terrible Pass Defense
I am not paying down too much at QB, and it’s always hard to recommend a player who isn’t actually all that talented. Having said that, I do love to target the Tennessee Titans and their pass defense. Gabbert has been adequate in his three starts, putting up 21, 19, and 12 fantasy points, and even the Titans have had a cupcake schedule in regards to teams that can pass the ball, they are still ranked as one of the worst in the league at defending the pass. This game has surprise shootout written all over it, and I think Larry Fitzgerald makes for a great pairing with Gabbert along with Ricky Seals-Jones at the TE position. You can run it back with Delanie Walker or one of the Titans WRs if you want to have a high-upside, low-owned stack. Gabbert is safe enough to be a play in all formats, but I prefer him in GPPs and will have 15 to 20 percent of him there.
Bengals S George Iloka's suspension overturned, will play Week 14
Iloka was charged with violently striking a defenseless receiver when he laid out Antonio Brown in the end zone last night but he’ll pay a fine instead of serving a suspension. He has the ninth-best run-stop rate among safeties this season, so his presence could help the team against Jordan Howard and the Bears RBs next weekend. Howard has only averaged 13.3 touches per game over the past four weeks and his snap share has also trended in the wrong direction while Chicago has been getting the other backs involved. As a unit, the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to RBs while ranking 29th in adjusted line yards but it’ll be hard to trust Howard to get enough volume to exploit the matchup.
This Career Backup is a Top Play This Week
I wanted to wait a week before playing the former Patriots backup QB, as he was in a bad matchup against the Bears. I wanted him to be game ready for the right time to unleash him, and this is that time. From everything we’ve heard and seen, Jimmy G. has a bright future in this league. Last week he threw for just under 300 yards in his first start of the year; only a solid Bears defense and the game flow prevented him from having a bigger game. He should have more familiarity and chemistry with his receivers this week and faces a Texans defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the QB position. I love this game as a sneaky shootout and feel comfortable pairing Garoppolo with Goodwin, Robinson or any of the other receivers in a game stack. I love running it back with Hopkins, Anderson, or Lamar Miller. I will have about 25% Garoppolo this weekend in my lineups.