DFS Alerts
Cowboys CB Orlando Scandrick isn't expected to play Week 14
Scandrick suffered two transverse process fractures in his back last Thursday and he could potentially miss more than one game. His absence should help Sterling Shepard in the slot. Shepard only picked up six targets from Geno Smith last week but he has a good shot to see the most looks on the team with Eli Manning under center – he averaged 11 targets in the two games he played with Manning as the WR1 this season. Despite missing time due to injury, he remains the team leader in red zone targets (9) and he’s just one behind Evan Engram inside the ten-yard line (5). On top of that, he’s seventh among receivers in yards per route run when lined up inside (1.9, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Sterling Shepard
Adrian Peterson isn't practicing Wednesday
Peterson is dealing with a neck injury that kept him sidelined this past weekend. If he’s able to return, he’ll face a Titans defense that just placed one of their best run-stuffers, DaQuan Jones on the IR. Jones has posted the 12th-best run-stop rate among interior defenders this year, so his absence will hurt the Titans ability to stop Peterson if he plays. Even with Jones starting every game, the Titans are 21st in adjusted line yards. If Peterson can’t go, Kerwynn Williams would likely handle the early-down work with D.J. Foster working in during passing situations.
Greg Olsen is practicing Wednesday
Olsen is expected to return following a one-game absence due to his foot injury. After re-aggravating it in Week 12, the team wanted to be cautious with him. They could continue limiting his snaps this weekend, which would make him a very risky fantasy play against a Vikings defense allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points to TEs. Perhaps the coaching staff will tip their hand this week in regards to how they plan to utilize Olsen.
Allen Hurns and CB Jalen Ramsey won't practice Wednesday
Both players are dealing with ankle injuries. It’s likely a maintenance day for Ramsey, we’ll find out tomorrow. Hurns has been sidelined for the past three games and is in danger of missing a fourth. In his absence, Dede Westbrook has taken over the number two receiver role. Across the past three weeks, he’s out-targeted Marqise Lee 25-21 and picked up ten more receiving yards (154-144). That was in part due to Lee’s matchup with Patrick Peterson in Arizona (1/2/13/0) but Westbrook is officially a full-time player; he saw the field for 54-of-66 snaps last week. Over the past four weeks, the injury-riddled Seahawks defense has been funneling fantasy points to wide receivers; they’ve allowed the second-most receptions (14.0/g) and fifth-most receiving yards to the position (176.8/g) while holding RBs to the fourth-fewest rushing yards (58.5) and ranking 17th in receiving yards to TEs (45.3/g). Westbrook and Lee will mostly see Shaquill Griffin and Byron Maxwell, PFF’s 59th and 60th (if qualified) cover corners. Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of this season (against a much weaker Colts secondary) in which he completed 74% of his passes for 309 yards and two scores. He’ll look to ride that momentum this weekend. Fortunately, he’s at home where he’s averaging 22 fantasy points per game this season, 7 more than his road average. Across six games in Jacksonville this season, he’s thrown the ball 37.3 times per game compared to 26.5 on the road and that’s allowed him to thrown an extra touchdown per game – 1.7 to 0.7 – and nearly 100 more yards – 258.2 to 167.3. The game has the second-lowest total on the board at 39.5 points which could keep ownership down and make the Jaguars passing attack an intriguing GPP target this weekend.
Other tagged players: Jacksonville Jaguars, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, Blake Bortles Tyrod Taylor and Travaris Cadet won't practice Wednesday; Kelvin Benjamin, CB Tre'Davious White, and Mike Tolbert will participate
Taylor is considered day-to-day with a patellar tendon contusion. If he misses any time, it would put rookie Nathan Peterman under center again. Fortunately for the Bills, they’ll be taking on one of the worst secondaries in the league when they host the Colts on Sunday. They’re giving up the most yards per attempt (8.3) while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs and ranking 13th in total interceptions (10). They were without their best corner, Rashaan Melvin (hand), in Week 13 and Blake Bortles tore them up, completing 74% of his passes for 309 yards and two scores. Melvin isn’t expected back this week and fellow starting CB Pierre Desir (shoulder) was placed on the IR. That could leave them with Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore on the outside, who would rank 90th and 106th in PFF coverage grades if they qualified. On top of that, the Colts are 31st in adjusted sack rate and generally struggle to apply pressure on QBs. It’s going to be incredibly hard to trust Peterman and his pass-catchers if he starts but this matchup is worlds apart from his debut against the Chargers. Cadet is in the concussion protocol. He handled seven touches on Sunday. Mike Tolbert missed the past few games but he’s back at practice this week. If both players end up out this weekend, it would open up a monster workload for LeSean McCoy. Benjamin missed the past two games. Jordan Matthews move to the IR and Benjamin’s return to practice indicates he’s on track to play this weekend. His outlook will change depending on who’s playing QB but he’s in a great spot for receivers. On the defensive side of things, White is also in the concussion protocol after taking a late hit from Rob Gronkowski. He’s had a fantastic rookie season, currently ranking fifth in PFF coverage grades and 13th in cover snaps per reception (14.5) while boasting a 51% catch rate. He’d primarily see Chester Rogers if he suits up, so his absence would be an upgrade for the receiver. Outside of one explosive game against the Steelers – when a huge chunk of his 6/6/104/1 line came on a 61-yard TD – he’s been relatively quiet, failing to top 35 yards or score.
The Top Mid-Tier RB in a “Perceived” Tough Matchup
From an initial first glance, the Browns are a tough matchup for a running back. They rank second in DVOA against the run, but digging deeper we see they are a dream matchup for a receiving back. They rank 31st in DVOA vs. the RB position in the pass game and they give up the second-highest target share to opposing RBs in the entire league (around a quarter of opposing team pass attempts are to running backs). Williams has been doing it all over the last two weeks, scoring over 50 combined DK points while being the focal point of the GB offense. This week, expect him to surpass the five targets he’s been averaging over the last three weeks. His floor is essentially matchup proof; if the Packers are ahead late in the game, Williams will be receiving the ball on the ground, and if they are ahead he will be getting a lot of action in the passing game. Ownership will likely fall heavier on other RBs in the $5.5-6K range, but Williams is the option with the highest floor/ceiling combo.
Colts LB John Simon placed on IR
Simon was one of the better run defenders on the Colts. His absence will be a boost for LeSean McCoy this weekend. As a unit, the Colts have given up the sixth-most PPR points to RBs and rank 20th in adjusted line yards. They’ll also be without their best corner, Rashaan Melvin, and Pierre Desir, who had been starting opposite Melvin. Indianapolis appears to be vulnerable to both rushing and passing attacks. If Tyrod Taylor misses time, the Bills will likely choose to focus on their ground game though, which should provide Shady plenty of volume in a great spot. It’s also worth noting his backups, Mike Tolbert (hamstring) and Travaris Cadet (concussion), are both dealing with injuries and are in danger of missing Week 14, potentially adding more to McCoy’s workload. Tolbert is expected to resume practicing tomorrow after missing the past three games. A line hasn’t been set for this contest as Taylor’s status remains up in the air.
Rob Gronkowski's appeal denied, will serve one-game suspension Week 14
Gronk concussed Bills CB Tre’Davious White on a late hit Sunday and now he’ll miss New England’s next game against the Dolphins. Dwayne Allen hasn’t done much all season and didn’t even log a target in the lone game Gronkowski missed this year. It’s possible Chris Hogan (shoulder) returns this weekend. If he doesn’t, Brandin Cooks could be looking at a monster target share against a Miami defense currently ranked 29th in WR1 DVOA.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks Broncos DE Derek Wolfe placed on IR
Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury and was told by doctors to rest it for the remainder of the season. He was a solid run defender this year, posting the 29th-best run-stop rate among interior defenders. While Denver boasted one of the best run defenses in the beginning of the year, they’ve faltered in recent weeks, allowing the fifth-most PPR points to RBs over the past four, and they’ll be worse off without Wolfe. Next up, they get the Jets and their three-man committee. Bilal Powell out-touched Matt Forte 20-18 last weekend while Elijah McGuire handled five carries. The Jets ran a whopping 85 plays though and it’s doubtful they’ll be able to hit that number again, which would limit the RB touches. Since Forte returned to the lineup, none of the backs have played more than 45% of the offensive snaps. It’ll be hard to trust any of them to get enough volume in Week 14.
Bruce Ellington and C.J. Fiedorowicz placed on IR
Ellington left Week 13 early with a hamstring injury and it’s apparently severe enough to end his season. With Fiedorowicz and Braxton Miller also forced from Houston’s last game with concussions and Will Fuller still sidelined, TE Stephen Anderson saw 12 targets and turned them into five catches for 79 yards and a score. The Texans are running out of people to throw the ball to and depending on what happens with Miller and Fuller, Anderson could be in line for another heavy workload against the 49ers this weekend. With all of their injury troubles at safety, San Francisco has struggled to defend the position recently, allowing the fifth-most PPR points to TEs over the past four weeks. Of course, DeAndre Hopkins will continue to pick up a massive workload no matter what – he saw 14 targets last game – and the 49ers are 27th in WR1 DVOA.
Other tagged players: C.J. Fiedorowicz, Stephen Anderson Mark Ingram didn't practice Tuesday
Beat writer Mike Triplett notes Ingram was present for the portion of practice open to the media and his DNP could simply be a precaution as he nurses a toe injury on a short week. Of course, if he ends up sitting this one out, it would provide Alvin Kamara more snaps and touches. On paper, it’s one of the best spots for Kamara as the Falcons are allowing the most receptions (6.5/g) and third-most receiving TDs to RBs (0.33/g). The rookie sensation leads RBs in yards per route run by a wide margin (2.65, per PFF) and he’s third overall, trailing only Julio Jones Antonio Brown. He’s now caught 5+ passes for five straight weeks while scoring three receiving TDs during that stretch. Kamara has also been strong on the ground, averaging 7.0 yards per carry and 4.2 yards after contact, but he’s only picked up double-digit carries in three games. If Ingram misses time, it’ll be his first crack at a workhorse role. Fortunately for him, the Falcons are 21st in adjusted line yards (per FO).
Other tagged players: Alvin Kamara Now’s the Time to Climb Aboard the Hype Train
I faded Gordon a lot more than I had initially planned last week. Realizing that it was a tough matchup and that he would actually garner a whole lot of ownership, Dede Westbrook seemed to be a much better play at the price. This week, I’m not going to be surprised if Gordon is the top scoring player on the entire slate. Against coverage from one of the best CBs in the entire league, Gordon received 11 targets last week. Had these targets been thrown accurately, he would have ended up with a huge day. This week Gordon has a matchup against a very poor Green Bay secondary that ranks near the bottom of the league in DVOA to both WR1s and WR2s, while also ranking 22nd in pass DVOA overall. This is an absolute smash spot for Gordon, as he is nearly guaranteed double-digit targets, and it doesn’t hurt that both Gordon and QB DeShone Kizer are playing for their futures. The Vegas implied team total for Cleveland is only 18.5 in this matchup, but don’t be surprised if the Browns go way over that number and that Gordon is the main reason why. I understand that he may come in at high ownership, but he may be the most talented WR in the league, and you are getting him at the same price as Marqise Lee in one of the best matchups a wideout can get.
Bears DL Mitch Unrein and LG Kyle Long placed on IR
Unrein left Week 13 with a knee injury. He’s posted the ninth-best run-stop rate this season among interior defenders, so his absence next week will be a boost for Joe Mixon if he plays. The rookie runner was concussed last night in the second quarter. He impressed two weeks ago against a tough Browns run defense, picking up 114 yards and a TD on the ground. Although he’s posted the second-worst elusive rating (22.5, per PFF), he was seventh in Week 12 (59.4). He also added three catches for 51 yards. On the season, his yards per route run would be fifth-among RBs if he qualified (1.83). The Bears are 14th in receiving RB DVOA but have held the position to the fifth-fewest receiving yards this season (34.3/g). Chicago also lost Long to a shoulder injury. Chicago’s backup guards have performed poorly this season, so Long’s absence is a downgrade for their pass-protection and ground game. The Bengals defensive line is 18th is adjusted sack rate and 30th in adjusted line yards.
Jordan Matthews and DE Shaq Lawson placed on IR
Matthews has been dealing with a knee injury the past few games and the Bills decided to put him on the injured reserve, ending his season. He hasn’t picked up more than three targets in any of the past three games, so his absence won’t change a whole lot in terms of market share. Lawson was carted off with an ankle injury in Week 13. He’s PFF’s 31st-ranked edge defender against the rush and ranks 18th at his position in run-stop rate. His absence will help Frank Gore this week.
Narrative Street?
The Giants are a dumpster fire right now, but they might come out and make a statement after their head coach got the axe after last week’s loss. Eli Manning is going to be back under center, and you know he is seething after everything that has gone down this year. The Cowboys have not been the same defensive unit this year, and even with Sean Lee likely back, I don’t envision them as a shut down defense. Manning is dirt cheap, and you can certainly pair him with a pass catcher in a risk/reward GPP stack.
