DFS Alerts
Will Fuller officially ruled out for Week 11
Fuller is dealing with cracked ribs. Although it’s nothing too serious, Fuller will be sidelined for at least one game. Bruce Ellington will serve as the WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins while Fuller is down. He managed to pick up eight targets and caught Tom Savage’s lone touchdown last Sunday. Hopkins piled up 14 looks and will likely maintain his target monster status. With Savage under center, he’ll continue to have some efficiency problems though – he’s only caught 43% of his passes the past two games – and he won’t have as many scoring opportunities. On top of that, he’ll be shadowed by Patrick Peterson this weekend, whose limited receivers to the fewest fantasy points per route defended (0.1, per PFF). C.J. Fiedorowicz could also benefit from Fuller’s absence. He saw six looks in his first game since Week 1 but he only caught two for ten yards. The Cardinals will be without Tyvon Branch, PFF’s 5th-ranked safety, opening up a better matchup for the tight end than it looks on paper. Even with Branch this year, Arizona is 13th in TE DVOA and allowing the 11th-most PPR points to the position.
Other tagged players: DeAndre Hopkins, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Bruce Ellington
He's On Sale! Buy Now!
Allen is not a cheap play, but he has massive upside, is way too cheap, and will be overlooked because of the players around him and recency bias. His targets have dipped a bit, but I don’t think that will happen in this game. Two of his last three games have been brutal matchups against the Broncos and Jaguars and the third was against a Pats defense that has been much improved of late. While the Bills are a decent enough defensive team, this is still an upgrade from those matchups. Look for Allen to get 10+ targets and have a big game. We know he has a massive ceiling and are used to paying up to $8K for him on DraftKings. I suggest taking the discount while it’s still available — I’ll have about 25% Keenan this weekend.
Giants RT Justin Pugh ruled out for Week 11
Pugh left Week 10 early with a back injury. Bobby Hart, PFF’s 67th-ranked tackle, will continue to fill in while Pugh is sidelined. It’s a slight downgrade for the Giants offense but Pugh has also scored poorly this season. Running back Orleans Darkwa has taken over the Giants backfield and logged 16 touches against the 49ers last Sunday. He’s now averaging 5.1 yards per carry heading into a Week 11 showdown against a Chiefs run defense currently 31st in adjusted line yards (4.71, per FO). The Chiefs pass rush is 22nd in adjusted sack rate but they could still find success against a Giants offensive front that’s been charged with the sixth-most sacks this season (17, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Orleans Darkwa, Kansas City Chiefs Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker removed from injury report, will play Week 11
Mariota was dealing with non-throwing shoulder and ankle injuries heading into a Thursday night matchup with the Steelers but he’ll be able to play. It’s a difficult spot considering the Steelers are fifth in pass DVOA and holding QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points this season. However, with injuries to CB Joe Haden and S Mike Mitchell, the matchup will be a bit easier than it looks on paper. The Titans are 7.0-point road dogs, which could force Mariota to the air often. He attempted a season-high 44 attempts in Week 10 and finished with 256 yards and a score. On the season, he’s 18th with 7.19 yards per attempt and 29th in touchdown passes (7). He’s added three scores on the ground though and picked up at least 24 rushing yards in five games. He was expected to be more involved as a runner this past weekend and he followed through with 51 rushing yards. Delanie Walker suffered a wrist injury Sunday but still led the team with six receptions and 63 yards. He’ll also be out there against the Steelers, whose defense continues to shut down tight ends. They lead the league in TE DVOA and limited Jack Doyle to a 2/9/0 line on five looks last week. The Steelers are now third in PPR points allowed to the position.
Other tagged players: Delanie Walker His NFL Debut Should Be A Good One
Because there aren’t many players I am excited to pay up for, I am looking for a well-balanced lineup this week. Having said that, when I am looking to save, Dede is my guy. I know this will be his first NFL game, but the kid is talented and should see a great deal of work with Allen Hurns out. He faces a vulnerable Browns pass defense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw double-digit targets. His upside is immense, as he can run off huge plays from wherever he lines up on the field because of his game-breaking speed. I’m guessing he will have a fair bit of ownership, so check Chris Gimino’s ownership projections before pulling the trigger too heavily in GPPs. As of right now, he is my favorite value receiver on the board, and it’s not close. I am currently planning on rostering 20 to 25 percent Westbrook.
Making The Case For This QB
While I will primarily be paying up at QB this week, it’s hard to ignore Keenum after what he did last week. While the Rams are a very good defense, the potential game flow in this one makes Keenum and his receivers excellent DFS options. The Rams have one of the best offenses in the NFL and score very quickly, and while the Vikings defense is tough, I have no reason to see this week being any different for the Rams. Minnesota will have trouble running the ball, which will force Case to air it out again to guys like Thielen, Rudolph and Diggs. This game could shootout, making for a great game stack, and Keenum may be overlooked given that the Rams are fourth in points allowed to the QB position. I am currently planning on playing around 20% of Keenum this weekend.
Target This QB Against An Elite Run Defense
While I am going for a balanced approach in most of my lineups this week, I think Bortles has significant upside if you want to pay down at QB. No matter what we think of Bortles as a real life QB, he has been solid and consistent this season, especially when you factor in his price (which has not changed much the entire season). He gets a matchup against a Browns defense that has excelled against the run but is awful outside of that unit, especially in their secondary. They are 24th in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and while Allen Hurns being out is somewhat of a concern, the Jags do get Dede Westbrook for the first time all season. What I love most about this matchup is Jacksonville want to run the ball, but I think the Browns will limit hat and force Blake to throw more, which in turn increases his upside. The game has one of the lowest totals on the boardm but I think there is some great value in this matchup. I am currently planning on playing Bortles at 10 to 15 percent this weekend.
Chris Hogan isn't practicing Wednesday
It’s a bad start to the week for Hogan, who wasn’t able to play last weekend due to a shoulder injury. If he’s able to play, he’ll have a terrific outlook. As a unit, Oakland is dead last in pass DVOA, and Hogan would primarily match up with CB David Amerson, who’s allowing the most fantasy points per route defended among CBs playing in Week 11 (0.52, per PFF). He and tight end Rob Gronkowski have established themselves as Tom Brady’s go-to pass catchers in scoring position. Despite missing a game, Hogan is eighth in the NFL with 11 red zone targets and he’s racked up the third-most looks inside the ten-yard line (7). With Hogan down in Week 10, Gronk picked up three RZ passes while Danny Amendola, Rex Burkhead, and Dwayne Allen each picked up two – Burkhead and Allen both scored. If the receiver remains sidelined this weekend, Brady would likely spread those opportunities in a similar fashion again. That’s promising for Gronk, especially considering the Raiders are 30th in TE DVOA and allowing the seventh-most PPR points to the position. Brandin Cooks also picked up a RZ target and he saw 11 overall, a season-high for the receiver. He would have a good shot at double-digit targets again if Hogan sits and the Raiders are 31st in WR1 DVOA. Not surprisingly, the Patriots currently have the highest implied total on the board (29.75 points).
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Tom Brady, Dwayne Allen, Rex Burkhead Drew Stanton is practicing again Wednesday
Beat writer Josh Weinfuss reports he was sporting a brace around his injured knee and moving with a noticeable limp. Blaine Gabbert is expected to start for the Cardinals against the Texans this weekend. It’s one of the best matchups a quarterback can have; the Texans have allowed the most yards per attempt (8.3), the third-most passing touchdowns (19), and the fifth-highest passer rating. Not surprisingly, they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, it would’ve been tough to trust Stanton to perform well in this great spot and the team believes Gabbert is worse than Stanton. Over the course of his career, Gabbert has completed 56.9% of his passes and posted 6.0 yards per attempt. It seems likely he’ll try to lean on Larry Fitzgerald like Stanton did. Over his two starts, Stanton sent 31% of his targets in Fitzgerald’s direction and it’s helped him tremendously. While the quarterback has been inefficient overall, completing just 48.4% of his passes while averaging 5.93 yards per attempt, he has a 65% completion rate and averages 7.96 yards per attempt when passing to his Fitz over the past two games. If Gabbert follows a similar pattern, Fitzgerald should find success against Texans slot corner Kareem Jackson, who’s earned PFF’s 109th cover grade out of 116 qualifiers.
Other tagged players: Blaine Gabbert, Larry Fitzgerald This Week 11 Game Script Calls For Passing, So Pick Me
One of the big surprises of the year has been the Saints pass defense, but the team’s run defense is still lacking. With Rob Kelley out for season, Thompson should get a little extra work in the Redskins offense against a Saints run D that ranks 25th in DVOA, with Washington a 7.5-point underdog in this game. If the last seven games are any indication of how this game will go, the Saints will be leading early and will probably not let it go, leaving the Redskins to be passing early and often. Thompson has been one of the top pass-catching RBs this season, so he could be in for a heavy workload this game. He has the second-most targets of any RB on the slate and has produced more with each reception than any other RB in the league. At his price of $5,400 on DraftKings, he has a chance to be one of the highest scoring PT/$ running backs on the slate.
A WR That’s Still Way Too Underpriced
Allen was priced at only $5,400 on DraftKings last week against the toughest pass D in the league, but they only raised his price $500 for this week. This guy is still one of the top WRs in the league, yet people don’t seem to realize it. Yes, he hasn’t been great the last three weeks, but that’s entirely to do with the matchups he’s faced. He’s gone against the two toughest pass defenses, as well as the Patriots, who tend to shut down the opposing team’s top receiver. Prior to that, Allen did not receive less than nine targets in any game this season, and even though he only has one TD on the year, he still has nine red-zone targets to his name. He’s in line to start piling up the touchdowns more often, and he should be the main target in this Week 11 matchup. The Bills are a top 15 pass D in terms of DVOA, but with as good of a route runner as Allen is, there shouldn’t be any chance at him being shut down this weekend.
Zach Ertz is practicing Wednesday
Erz took a game off ahead of Philly’s bye week to nurse a hamstring injury. Although he said it’s too soon to know if he’ll be able to play this weekend against the Cowboys, he likely will. He’s been a touchdown machine over his past four games, finding the end zone five times in that stretch. His receptions and yards have been a bit sporadic though and he’s only seen five or six targets over the last three outings. He’ll have a nice spot this weekend; the Cowboys are 38th in TE DVOA heading and they allowed Austin Hooper to reel in all six of his targets for a 6/49/1 line this past Sunday.
Brett Hundley will be a full participant in Wednesday's practice; Packers "hopeful" Ty Montgomery will be able to play Sunday
Hundley is dealing with a hamstring issue but it appears he’ll be all set for Green Bay’s Week 11 game against the Ravens. The quarterback played well in Chicago last weekend, completing 72% of his passes for 212 yards and a score. After a poor showing in his first two games in place of the injured Aaron Rodgers, Hundley has come around a bit. In his last two starts, he’s connected on 70% of his passes while averaging 228.5 yards per game and 7.3 yards per attempt. While he has only thrown two touchdowns this year, his fantasy production his boosted by his ability as a runner – he’s added two scores with his feet. He’ll have a challenging matchup with the Ravens this weekend, whose defense has held QBs to the second-lowest passer rating (69.8), completion percentage (56.7%), and fantasy points per game (12.47). Their defense may prove too much for the inexperienced quarterback and his lack of scoring production will remain a drag on the Packers receivers. Davante Adams continues to be his favorite weapon; he’s led the team in targets in all four games Hundley has played significant snaps and he’s caught both of Hundley’s touchdown balls this season. Jordy Nelson derives most of his fantasy value from his connection with Aaron Rodgers. After scoring six touchdowns over five full games with Rodgers this season, he’s been completely shut down. He hasn’t found the end zone once since the injury and he’s been held under 35 yards in all three of Hundley’s starts. Montgomery is questionable with a ribs injury. Coach Mike McCarthy said he’s unsure what the running back will be able to do in practice today if anything at all. If he’s able to play without limitations on Sunday, he could have a huge role with Aaron Jones sidelined. If he’s out, Jamaal Williams would likely take on a monster workload. The Ravens defense is giving up the third-most rushing yards (110.8/g) and ninth-most rushing scores (0.7/g) to RBs and the Packers will try to hide Hundley – it’s not a bad spot for the runners.
Other tagged players: Ty Montgomery, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams Case Keenum will remain starting QB for Vikings Week 11
Following Keenum’s four-touchdown performance in Week 10, the team has decided to keep him under center when they host the Rams this Sunday. The Rams have established themselves as the second-best pass defense in DVOA and they’ve limited quarterbacks to the third-lowest passer rating and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game. Adam Thielen is coming off a monster game against the Redskins in which he posted an 8/12/166/1 line. It was the fourth consecutive outing he attracted double-digit targets. He’ll have a difficult matchup with Nickell Robey-Coleman this weekend though. The slot CB is limiting receivers to the 12th-fewest fantasy points per route defended among all Week 11 corners (0.19) and he’s posted top seven yards per cover snap (0.51) and cover snap per reception (11.5) rates among all full-time slot corners this season (per PFF). Stefon Diggs will have a more favorable outlook against Trumaine Johnson, PFF’s 85th cover corner. While Johnson hasn’t been charged with a touchdown yet this season, he’s allowing the seventh-most yards per cover snap (1.59). Diggs would have the seventh-best yards per route run rate (2.26) if he qualified and he’s been very efficient on deep passes, catching 60% of his targets 20+ yards downfield, which is tied with Thielen for the best rate in the league. Plus, 31.9% of his total targets have been deep balls whereas 18.1% of Thielen’s looks are at least 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. While Wade Phillips’ defense presents a daunting challenge, Diggs may be able to get loose for some big plays.
Other tagged players: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs Zay Jones will practice Wednesday
Jones was inactive last week due to a knee injury but he appears on track to return. The wildly inefficient receiver, who’s hauled in just 36% of his targets, will have a new quarterback this weekend; fellow rookie Nathan Peterman will get the nod against the Chargers. While Jones was a favorite target of Tyrod Taylor – he’s currently second on the team with 44 looks – it remains to be seen if Peterman will throw his way as much. Plus, Jones hasn’t played with Kelvin Benjamin yet, which could further reduce his market share. He’ll primarily match up with Chargers CB Trevor Williams this weekend. The corner is limiting receivers to 0.14 fantasy points per route defended, the fourth-best rate among cornerbacks playing in Week 11 (per PFF). It won’t get much easier for Jordan Matthews or Benjamin as the trio of Williams, Casey Hayward, and Desmond King are all among PFF’s top 16 cover corners. They’ve also been strong against tight ends, limiting the position to the second-fewest PPR points per game. Their pass defense’s weak point is defending pass-catching backs. Los Angeles has allowed the most receptions (6.56/g) and third-most yards (54.11) to RBs this year. Considering they’re 22nd in rush DVOA, 25th in adjusted line yards, and giving up the fourth-most PPR points to the position, it seems like a great spot for LeSean McCoy. On top of those favorable stats, the Bills will likely try to ride McCoy as much as possible with Peterman under center, ensuring a high volume of touches for Shady.
Other tagged players: LeSean McCoy, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews