DFS Alerts
Devonta Freeman sidelined again Thursday, isn't expected to play Week 11
It’s #FreeTevinColeman week in the NFL with Freeman expected to be out with a concussion. Coleman has been nothing short of explosive with his limited touches this season. His 11.9 yards per reception is second among all running backs while his 4.8 yards per carry is sixth, he’s turned 24% of his catches into 20+ yard plays, and his five 20+ yard runs is third in the league despite picking up the 31st-most carries this season (83). He and Freeman have combined for 85.4% of the team’s carries and 16.4% of the team’s targets. With Freeman out of the way, Coleman should take on a huge workload and coach Dan Quinn has confirmed they’ll lean on him if Freeman is ultimately ruled out. Unfortunately, he’ll be getting his big opportunity against a stout Seahawks defense currently limiting RBs to the fourth-fewest PPR points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards. However, they aren’t infallible; they’ve allowed RBs to score five touchdowns over the past three games and they’re 11th in adjusted line yards (per FO). Volume is key in fantasy and Coleman, who turns a relatively high percentage of his touches into big plays, should have plenty of it. Seattle’s defense may scare some fantasy players away, which could suppress his ownership and make him an even better GPP target in Week 11.
Other tagged players: Tevin Coleman
Zay Jones is practicing Thursday; Mike Tolbert isn't participating
Jones was inactive last week due to a knee injury but he appears on track to return. The wildly inefficient receiver, who’s hauled in just 36% of his targets, will have a new quarterback this weekend; fellow rookie Nathan Peterman will get the nod against the Chargers. While Jones was a favorite target of Tyrod Taylor – he’s currently second on the team with 44 looks – it remains to be seen if Peterman will throw his way as much. Plus, Jones hasn’t played with Kelvin Benjamin yet, which could further reduce his market share. He’ll primarily match up with Chargers CB Trevor Williams this weekend. The corner is limiting receivers to 0.14 fantasy points per route defended, the fourth-best rate among cornerbacks playing in Week 11 (per PFF). It won’t get much easier for Jordan Matthews or Benjamin as the trio of Williams, Casey Hayward, and Desmond King are all among PFF’s top 16 cover corners. They’ve also been strong against tight ends, limiting the position to the second-fewest PPR points per game. Their pass defense’s weak point is defending pass-catching backs. Los Angeles has allowed the most receptions (6.56/g) and third-most yards (54.11) to RBs this year. Considering they’re 22nd in rush DVOA, 25th in adjusted line yards, and giving up the fourth-most PPR points to the position, it seems like a great spot for LeSean McCoy. On top of those favorable stats, the Bills will likely try to ride McCoy as much as possible with Peterman under center, ensuring a high volume of touches for Shady. It’s worth keeping an eye on Tolbert, who’s now missed two straight practices. He steals some of the goal line work from McCoy, so if he’s sidelined Sunday, it would provide a little boost for the starter.
Other tagged players: Mike Tolbert, LeSean McCoy Bengals CB Adam Jones isn't practicing Thursday
Jones is in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced all week. That puts him on the doubtful side of things for Cincy’s Week 11 matchup with the Broncos. William Jackson, PFF’s 29th cover corner, will start in his place. Jackson’s 0.78 yards per cover snap would be tenth if he qualified and his 0.16 fantasy points per route run is the fifth-best mark among Week 11 corners (per PFF). That sets up a challenging spot for Demaryius Thomas, who will see him the most – roughly 50% of his routes are run on Jackson’s side. Emmanuel Sanders moves around the formation much more frequently and he’s only in Jackson’s area around 33% of the time. He’ll primarily see Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick. The duo’s numbers are pedestrian and they’ve earned PFF’s 53rd and 102nd cover grades, respectively. It looks like Sanders has the better spot than Thomas as he did last week against the Patriots when he saw a team-high 11 targets and turned them into six catches for 137 yards. He still has Brock Osweiler throwing to him though, which will limit his upside. As a unit, the Bengals are 15th in pass DVOA but second in yards per attempt and top ten in completion percentage, passer rating, and passing touchdowns allowed. Osweiler is completing just 52% of his attempts this season and averaging 5.96 yards per attempt; he could be overmatched by the Bengals pass defense this week which would naturally hurt his receivers’ fantasy production. The Broncos have an implied total of 21 points this week.
Other tagged players: Brock Osweiler, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas Cowboys LT Tyron Smith isn't practicing Thursday; Dez Bryant is participating
Smith is veering towards the doubtful side of things for Week 11 after being sidelined last weekend with a groin injury. His absence was detrimental to the Cowboys offense. His replacement, Chaz Green, was a complete disaster. Despite playing 67% of the passing snaps, he allowed a week-high four sacks and was benched. Byron Bell came in for Green and promptly gave up two sacks in 14 passing snaps. They don’t seem to have an answer for this situation which is worrisome ahead of their showdown with the Eagles defensive front. The Eagles have the tenth-most sacks this season (25) and they’ve posted the fourth-most per game over the past three weeks (3.7). When under pressure this season, Dak Prescott is 27th in completion percentage (44.6%). That could cause problems for Bryant, who’s only catching 50% of his targets as it is. The receiver is nursing knee and ankle injuries but he was able to play through them in Week 10 and is fully expected to do so this weekend. Although he’s only averaging 53.1 yards per game, he brings plenty of scoring potential to the table. He’s fourth in the league with 14 RZ targets and he’s tallied nine looks inside the ten-yard line, which is good for second. That’s where his touchdown production comes from, all four of his scores are from inside the 20-yard line and three have come within ten yards of the goal line, so it’s crucial he continues to see a high volume of targets when Dallas is close to the end zone. With Ezekiel Elliott out and the Eagles boasting one of the best run defenses in the league, it’s a very good spot for Bryant to pick up opportunities where he’s most effective. So far this season, 70% of Philly’s opponents’ touchdowns have come through the air, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Given his scoring upside, he appears to be a solid GPP target on FanDuel’s main slate where we’re currently projecting just 5% ownership.
Other tagged players: Dez Bryant This Tight End Is No Joke
This is an extreme long shot play but there is some merit to it as Njoku was targeted three times in the end zone last week and now has seven red zone targets on the season. While he hasn’t caught many of those and only had one reception on six targets this past Sunday, the attention he is getting from Kizer is hard to ignore. When you’re looking for bargain plays at a very weak position, Njoku certainly has the type of upside we want and need in our lineups. I’m not sure how much I will have of him in my lineups but I think he could be due for a breakout game and am guessing I will have 10 to 15 percent of him.
This Ugly Duckling Could Be A Swan By The End Of The Day
I will be paying up at tight end this week more than any other week because the cheap options are flat out ugly! When I am going cheap, it’ll be with Kroft against the second worst team against the TE. He’s my favorite of the under $3K (on DK) players and the Broncos pass defense is very good except when it comes to covering the TE. Dalton may be forced to funnel his targets to Kroft as A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell should be blanketed on the outside. He’s by no means exciting but he had been trending in the right direction and still had six targets in a terrible game last Sunday. Since Week 3, he has seen a good bit of red zone work, hauling in three touchdowns while averaging just over five total targets a game. If you’re looking to pay down, Kroft is one of the safest options and there is upside facing this Broncos defense. I am currently planning on using him at about 15 to 20 percent in my lineups.
Low Ownership + A Sneaky-Good Workload = DFS Tourney Goodness
In Week 10, Rod Smith out-snapped Alfred Morris 38 to 22, as the Cowboys installed him more heavily into the game plan as they fell behind. The Cowboys’ Week 11 opponent, the Eagles, rank second in the NFL in points per game, and have faced the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (their 133 running back rush attempts faced through nine games – an average of 14.78 attempts per game – is almost unthinkably small). Meanwhile, the Eagles have faced the most pass attempts and the fourth-most running back targets in the NFL. This is a great, sneaky week to test the waters with Rod Smith in tourneys – knowing you’ll get low ownership, and should also get plenty of snaps with a solid shot at six to eight targets and a handful of carries.
This Low-Cost RB Is Not On The Week 11 Radar For Most
Orleans Darkwa has averaged 17 touches per game over the Giants’ last four contests, and touched the ball 16 times last week with all four backs healthy (Paul Perkins played only on special teams). Darkwa also has eight targets (and eight catches) across his last four games. While game flow is a concern, Darkwa is a great salary saver in tourneys – at low ownership – against a Chiefs team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt. The floor here is low, but ownership should be low as well, and upside is enormous.
Vance McDonald and S Mike Mitchell questionable for Week 11
McDonald and Mitchell are both dealing with ankle injuries that could cause them to miss Pittsburgh’s Thursday night showdown with the Titans. McDonald has become a little involved in the passing game in recent weeks, pulling down a pair of receptions in each of the past two games including one touchdown grab against the Colts. His absence wouldn’t change a whole lot though, it would primarily open up more snaps for Xavier Grimble. With CB Joe Haden out for several weeks, the Steelers would be even thinner if Mitchell is out. Coty Sensabaugh played poorly in place of Haden last week, allowing a 3/83/1 line on four targets. He’ll primarily battle Rishard Matthews on Thursday. The receiver was second on the team with five catches and 50 yards in Week 10 but he was out-targeted by Corey Davis 10-7 in the rookie’s first game since Week 2. Davis will have his hands full with Artie Burns, who’s 19th in cover snaps per reception (14.1, per PFF), which could encourage Marcus Mariota to send more passes in Matthews’ direction. Martavis Bryant was out with an illness yesterday but was removed from the injury report today; he’s good to go tomorrow night. He’s a distant third receiver behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, who’s now scored in three straight games. While Tennessee is 10th in WR1 DVOA, they’re 29th against WR2s and they’re funneling the fourth-most passes to the position (7.1/g, per FO). Last week, Bengals WR2 Brandon LaFell posted his best game of the season, finishing with a 6/10/95/1 line.
Other tagged players: Pittsburgh Steelers, Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster Ezekiel Elliott is withdrawing appeal, will serve full six-game suspension
This ridiculous saga has finally come to a close. Elliott has given up his battle and will remain sidelined for five more games. While he’s out, the Cowboys will likely continue to roll with Alfred Morris in the early-down role with Rod Smith coming on for passing situations. Game flow turned against Morris last week and he only ended up carrying the rock 11 times, although he picked up a solid 53 yards on those attempts. Smith ended up attracting six targets but only turned them into 15 yards on four catches. Week 11 presents a terrible spot for Morris as the Eagles are first in adjusted line yards (2.33, per FO) and they’re limiting RBs to the third-fewest touchdowns per game (0.33). They are, however, giving up the second-most receptions (6.44/g) and receiving scores (0.44/g) to the position though. Smith out-snapped Morris 38-22 last week (McFadden played one) and with the explosive Eagles – who’ve scored the second-most points this season (283) – coming to town, the game could head in a similar direction. At $3.4k on DK, Smith is an intriguing GPP option that should come with very low ownership. As Ian Rapoport reported last week, the Cowboys see Smith as their “wildcard” and they want to use him.
Other tagged players: Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, Rod Smith Philip Rivers practiced Wednesday; Chargers optimistic he can play Week 11
Rivers is in the concussion protocol after he reported symptoms Tuesday. He was able to practice with the team today in a limited fashion and coach Anthony Lynn said his reps should increase over the course of the week. Although there are no guarantees when dealing with concussions until a player has cleared the protocol, it appears Rivers will be able to play the Bills on Sunday. The aging quarterback is having a down season, his 60.1% completion rate is the lowest since he’s taken over as the Chargers starter and his 7.01 yards per attempt is the worst average he’s posted since 2012. He’s still finding the end zone quite a bit though, he’s tossed 15 TD passes and posted five multi-score games. In Week 11, he’ll have a stiff opponent if he suits up. The Bills are limited QBs to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest touchdown passes (0.78/g). Buffalo’s weak point appears to be in their run defense as highlighted by the Saints last week when they rolled over the Bills for 298 yards and six scores in the ground. Melvin Gordon will try to emulate that success this weekend. He’s been inefficient this season, delivering 3.8 yards per carry (3.2 if his 87-yard run is removed), but he’ll be in a great spot to improve those numbers. The Chargers are currently favored by 4.0-points and they’re facing a rookie QB in his first start, so game flow should be in Gordon’s favor.
Other tagged players: Melvin Gordon Lions RG T.J. Lang will play Week 11
Lang had a full practice Wednesday after missing Week 10 due to a concussion. He’s an important piece to Detroit’s offensive line, currently ranking fifth among tackles by PFF grading. As a unit, they’ve struggled though, they’re 27th in pass-blocking efficiency (per PFF) and dead last in adjusted line yards (2.92, per FO). Fortunately for them, LT Taylor Decker returned last week in place of the struggling Cam Robinson. With both Decker and Lang on the same line, they could start to show some improvement. They’ll be challenged in pass protection this weekend by a Bears unit currently in second in adjusted sack rate. They are, however, 28th in adjusted yards (4.55), potentially opening up a spot for Ameer Abdullah to pick up his production. He’s scored in consecutive weeks but he hasn’t topped 54 rushing yards since Week 4 and he’s posted 3.5 ypc this year.
Other tagged players: Matthew Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Chicago Bears Jordan Reed and LT Trent Williams aren't practicing Wednesday
Reed has missed the past two games and could be sidelined again this weekend against the Saints. It’s arguably the hardest matchup for tight ends; New Orleans has limited the position to the fewest receptions (3.22/g) and yards (34.22) per game this season. If Reed suits up, he’ll likely be limited in some fashion. Should he remain out, Vernon Davis would continue to operate as their top tight end. Even with Jamison Crowder back in the lineup last weekend, Davis came away with 11 targets and pulled down seven for 76 yards. He’s been a reliable target for Kirk Cousins, catching 71% of his passes, and could continue to pick up opportunities even in a difficult spot. It’s also worth noting the Saints have had trouble defending tight ends where it really counts, they’ve conceded the sixth-most touchdowns to TEs (0.56), signalling some low-key upside for Davis, who racked up three red zone targets last week alone.
Other tagged players: Washington Commanders, Vernon Davis Chris Hogan isn't expected to play Week 11
ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported Tuesday, Chris Hogan “won’t play Sunday, barring an unexpected change.” Hogan wasn’t at practice today as he’s rehabbing in Massachusettes while the team remained west and practiced at the Air Force Academy this afternoon. He and tight end Rob Gronkowski have established themselves as Tom Brady’s go-to pass catchers in scoring position. Despite missing a game, Hogan is still eighth in the NFL with 11 red zone targets and he’s racked up the third-most looks inside the ten-yard line (7). With Hogan down in Week 10, Gronk picked up three RZ passes while Danny Amendola, Rex Burkhead, and Dwayne Allen each picked up two – Burkhead and Allen both scored. With the receiver expected to be sidelined again this weekend, Brady could spread those opportunities in a similar fashion again. That’s promising for Gronk, especially considering the Raiders are 30th in TE DVOA and allowing the seventh-most PPR points to the position. Brandin Cooks also picked up one RZ target and he saw 11 looks overall, a season-high for the receiver. He’ll have a good shot at double-digit targets again and the Raiders are 31st in WR1 DVOA. He runs roughly 80% of his routes on the outside where he’ll see David Amerson and Dexter McDonald, who’ve allowed the most and sixth-most fantasy points per route defended, respectively (per PFF). Not surprisingly, the Patriots currently have the highest implied total on the board (29.75 points).
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks Ty Montgomery didn't practice Wednesday
Mongomery is dealing with a ribs injury that’s been lingering for weeks and forced him from Week 10’s game early. If he’s somehow able to play without limitations on Sunday, he could have a huge role with Aaron Jones sidelined. If he’s out, Jamaal Williams would need to step up and would likely take on a monster workload. The Ravens defense is giving up the third-most rushing yards (110.8/g) and ninth-most rushing scores (0.7/g) to RBs and the Packers will try to hide Hundley, potentially providing a ton of touches for their backfield.