DFS Alerts
Eagles coach Doug Pederson says team will continue to increase Jay Ajayi's workload
This comes a day after offensive coordinator Frank Reich told reporters he’s confident Ajayi can handle all the plays they’d want to run this weekend. The Eagles backfield situation is one of the bigger question marks heading into Week 11 but things are certainly trending in the right direction for Ajayi. He’ll face a Dallas squad this weekend that will be without their best linebacker and run-stopper, Sean Lee. Even with Lee starting seven games this season, the Cowboys are 30th in rush DVOA and 24th in adjusted line yards (per FO). While they’ve held RBs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game (83.6), they’ve defended the third-fewest attempts (19.9/g). With Philadelphia heading to town, it could be a different story. Not only are the Eagles favored in this one (-3), but they’re averaging the second-most rushing attempts per game (31.4). It’s starting to sound like Ajayi will have the featured role in a terrific spot, it’ll be worth following this story as we head towards Sunday.
Blaine Gabbert expected to start for Cardinals Week 11
Drew Stanton is dealing with a knee injury which will reportedly keep him sidelined on Sunday when the Cardinals visit the Texans. It’s one of the best matchups a quarterback can have; the Texans have allowed the most yards per attempt (8.3), the third-most passing touchdowns (19), and the fifth-best passer rating. Not surprisingly, they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, it would’ve been tough to trust Drew Stanton to perform well in this great spot and the team believes Gabbert is worse than Stanton. Over the course of his career, Gabbert has completed 56.9% of his passes and posted 6.0 yards per attempt. It seems likely he’ll try to lean on Larry Fitzgerald like Stanton did. Over his two starts, he’s sent 31% of his targets in Fitzgerald’s direction and it’s helped him tremendously. While the quarterback has been inefficient overall, completing just 48.4% of his passes while averaging 5.93 yards per attempt, he has a 65% completion rate and averages 7.96 yards per attempt when passing to his Fitz over the past two games. If Gabbert follows a similar pattern, Fitzgerald should find success against Texans slot corner Kareem Jackson, who’s earned PFF’s 109th cover grade out of 116 qualifiers.
Other tagged players: Drew Stanton, Larry Fitzgerald Nathan Peterman will start at QB for Bills Week 11
Peterman will replace Tyrod Taylor when the Bills take on the Chargers this Sunday. The rookie will have a challenging spot for his first start. The Chargers, led by a trio of strong corners – all of whom are among PFF’s top 16 cover CBs – are sixth in pass DVOA (per FO), eighth in yards per attempt (6.6), and limiting QBs to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. On top of boasting a strong secondary, they have developed one of the best pass-rushes in football. LA has racked up the second-most sacks (29) and find themselves ranked third in adjusted sack rate. Fortunately for Peterman, Buffalo’s offensive line has held strong this season, allowing the sixth-fewest total pressures so far. While that should help him in some capacity, he’ll still need to release the ball in a timely fashion which is typically a struggle for rookie quarterbacks. Peterman’s presence will likely be a downgrade for the receivers at the beginning but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the Bills to see if the QB can develop some chemistry with his pass-catchers. The Chargers D/ST will likely be a popular option this week.
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The Top High-Priced RB You Should Pay Up For
McCoy has been disappointing to say the least over the last two games, but this game should make him right again. Whereas the three most expensive running backs are going against top 10 run defenses, McCoy gets a plus matchup against the Chargers. The Chargers D, on the year, ranks 22nd in DVOA, 24th in DVOA vs. pass-catching RBs, and 26% of their opponents’ targets are going to the RB. Plus, with the Bills pass offense having a few more weapons with Clay and Benjamin in the offense now, it should take a little pressure off of McCoy. Considering the spread is four (the Chargers have a propensity for keeping games close), we can expect McCoy to get a large workload both on the ground, along with a lot of dump-offs because of that great San Diego pass rush. Keep in mind that, even with McCoy getting one of the largest workloads in the league, he has only found the end zone in two games this season. He’s going to get his soon. If you’re paying up at RB, McCoy is the way to go this week.
Target this Tight End in Week 11
With Travis Kelce facing a Giants defense that is worst in the league vs. the TE position, I don’t expect a whole lot of people to be on Gronk this week. BIG MISTAKE. Gronkowski is getting targeted in his offense at a higher rate than Kelce is (Kelce has only four more targets, in one more game), and the Raiders rank 28th is DVOA vs. tight ends and are realistically close to as good of a matchup as the Giants. In addition, the Pats are only 7.5-point favorites, opposed to the Chiefs, who are favored by 10.5, and Belichick is the kind of coach that will keep forcing the ball down the throat of the opposing team no matter the score. Overall, with Gronk you get the more talented TE in a better game script and a similar matchup, but he will likely come in at lower ownership. Expect Gronk to be the highest scoring tight end and quite possibly even the top scoring receiver on the slate.
Good Matchup, Affordable Price, and Opportunity
Everything is coming together for the mighty Marqise Lee to be a popular play this week. That seems strange on the surface, but the matchup is fantastic against an awful Cleveland pass defense, and it sounds like Allen Hurns is going to be forced to sit out this week. When you combine those two factors with the fact that Lee’s price is still affordable, you have all the makings of a solid play. Lee saw 11 targets and caught a touchdown pass last week, and he should be able to keep it rolling here.
Oops, We Did it Again
Fitzmagic did not pan out in his revenge game against the Jets last week, but I’ll gladly go back to the well in GPP formats this week. The price tag remains very reasonable, and he gets to take on a Dolphins team that simply has packed it in for the year and has no semblance of a defense at this point. Miami will also be playing on a short week here. Thanks to recency bias, you will see Fitzpatrick carry about a tenth of the ownership that he did a week ago, and that’s music to my ears in this matchup. Fire away in tournament formats, especially since he will have the dangerous Mike Evans back in the mix.
Nothing in the Way
Although the Redskins may not want to give Chris Thompson more touches, they simply have no choice at this point. They are in desperate need of wins, and now Rob Kelley is out with an injury. That leaves Thompson and the struggling Samaje Perine in the Washington backfield. New Orleans has had issues with pass catching running backs this year, and Thompson should be in for a fine all-around game here.
Injury-Based Opportunity
It sounds like Devonta Freeman is not going to be able to return from his concussion this week, so we finally won’t have to worry about the maddening snap count split in the backfield with the Falcons. Coleman will be able to handle his largest snap count of the season against a Seahawks defense that is more vulnerable on the ground. Even though Seattle’s rush defense has been better in recent weeks, the opportunity at the affordable price tag is too much to ignore for a player of Coleman’s caliber.
Miles Ahead of the Field at Tight End
The narrative is certainly out there right now that you want to target tight ends against the Giants. They have allowed a touchdown to the tight end position for about 300 straight weeks now, including allowing a big game to the mighty Garrett Celek last week. In all seriousness, they have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in EVERY GAME this year. Good luck with slowing down Travis Kelce.
Vance McDonald and Martavis Bryant didn't practice Tuesday, S Mike Mitchell limited
McDonald and Mitchell are both dealing with ankle injuries that could cause them to miss Pittsburgh’s Thursday night showdown with the Titans. McDonald has become a little involved in the passing game in recent weeks, pulling down a pair of receptions in each of the past two games including one touchdown grab against the Colts. His absence wouldn’t change a whole lot though, it would primarily open up more snaps for Xavier Grimble. With CB Joe Haden out for several weeks, the Steelers would be a little thin if Mitchell is out. Coty Sensabaugh played poorly in place of Haden last week, allowing a 3/83/1 line on four targets. He’ll primarily battle Rishard Matthews on Thursday. The receiver was second on the team with five catches and 50 yards in Week 10 but he was out-targeted by Corey Davis 10-7 in the rookie’s first game since Week 2. Davis will have his hands full with Artie Burns, who’s 19th in cover snaps per reception (14.1, per PFF), which could encourage Marcus Mariota to send more passes in Matthews’ direction. Bryant was out with an illness today, so he should be good to go this week. He’s a distant third receiver behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, who’s now scored in three straight games. While Tennessee is 10th in WR1 DVOA, they’re 29th against WR2s and they’re funneling the fourth-most passes to the position (7.1/g, per FO). Last week, Bengals WR2 Brandon LaFell posted his best game of the season, finishing with a 6/10/95/1 line.
Other tagged players: Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers Rob Kelley placed on IR
Kelley was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain and an MCL sprain. The team has decided to put him on the IR and sign Byron Marshall. Samaje Perine will take over the early-down role going forward and coach Jay Gruden said he’ll begin to “get more and more carries” in the coming weeks. Chris Thomspon will still mix in for some rushing attempts while continuing to handle the bulk of the passing downs. Thompson attracted seven targets last game and his Week 11 matchup with the Saints isn’t a bad for his skill set. In addition to the Saints ranking 28th in rush DVOA, they’ve given up the second-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to the position. On top of that, Thompson will have a friendly $5.4k price tag on DraftKings this week, possibly the cheapest he’ll be the rest of the season. Given the spot and his ability to generate huge plays, Thompson is shaping up to be a solid tournament target in Week 11.
Other tagged players: Chris Thompson C.J. Prosise placed on IR
Prosise has been battling an ankle injury nearly the entire season and wasn’t able to finish either game he’s played in since originally going down in Week 3. Seattle will roll with Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy on early downs and utilize J.D. McKissic in the passing game, as they have been. Lacy was inactive last week he could remain sidelined against the Falcons on Monday night. If he’s out, it would leave Rawls with a pretty significant workload but he’s averaging an abysmal 2.6 yards per carry this season and hasn’t picked up more than 39 rushing yards in any game. Atlanta has an exploitable rush defense currently ranked 21st in adjusted line yards but they’ve given up the third-fewest rushing scores. They’re particularly vulnerable to pass-catching backs; in addition to allowing the fourth-most receiving TDs to RBs, they’ve permitted the second-most receptions to the position. Rawls hauled in two receptions in each of the past two games but as mentioned, he’ll likely lose a good chunk of that work to McKissic, limiting his upside.
Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls, JD McKissic, Eddie Lacy Curtis Samuel will be shut down for season
Samuel suffered a serious ankle injury Monday night and it’ll cost him the rest of his rookie season. He was trending in the right direction prior to the injury, picking up five and seven targets in his first two games since the Kelvin Benjamin trade. Now that Samuel is done, there will be more opportunities for Russell Shepard and Kaelin Clay. Tight end Greg Olsen is expected to return following Carolina’s Week 11 bye; he’ll be in line for as much work as he can handle coming off foot surgery.
Other tagged players: Russell Shepard, Kaelin Clay, Greg Olsen Eagles believe Jay Ajayi is ready for bigger workload
Offensive coordinator Frank Reich told reporters Tuesday he’s confident Ajayi can handle all the plays they’d want to run this weekend. The Eagles backfield situation is one of the bigger question marks heading into Week 11. They’re set to face a Dallas squad that will be without their best linebacker and run-stopper, Sean Lee. Even with Lee starting seven games this season, the Cowboys are 30th in rush DVOA and 24th in adjusted line yards (per FO). While they’ve held RBs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game (83.6), they’ve defended the third-fewest attempts (19.9/g). With Philadelphia heading to town, it could be a different story. Not only are they favored in this one (-3), but they’re averaging the second-most rushing attempts per game (31.4). It’ll be worth keeping an eye on Ajayi as the week progresses; if the Eagles plan to give him the featured role, he’ll be in a terrific spot.