DFS Alerts
Michael Thomas had a full practice Friday, will play Week 10
While Thomas hasn’t had any “big” games this season, he’s provided a nice floor most weeks with 5-8 catches in all but one game and 65-89 yards in six of eight. Should E.J. Gaines (hamstring, questionable) return it could make things tougher for Thomas and Ted Ginn as they wouldn’t be able to pick on Shareece Wright. Gaines has limited receivers to a 51.7% catch rate and 0.83 yards per cover snap (per PFF) which would be 16th if he qualified.
Saints DB Kenny Vaccaro ruled out for Week 10, RG Larry Warford and LT Terron Armstead questionable
Things are trending in the right direction for Jordan Matthews. In addition to Zay Jones being ruled out, opening up more targets, Saints slot corner Vaccaro is dealing with a groin injury that will keep him sidelined. While the Saints have improved tremendously against the pass, they don’t have depth in their secondary. That’s why Vaccaro made the switch from safety to corner this season. Outside CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley have been superb and since Week 4 (Vaccaro’s second game as a full-time slot corner), Vaccaro is eighth in yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.83) and seventh in cover snaps per reception (12.8). As a result of their play, New Orleans is fourth is pass DVOA and holding receivers to the 11th-fewest PPR points per game. They’ll now have a soft spot inside though which Matthews could exploit. It also helps that it’s Kelvin Benjamin’s first game in a new offense, potentially limiting what he can do and Charles Clay is coming off an injury. Plus, Tyrod Taylor has notorious home/road splits, averaging 1.5 touchdowns at the Ralph compared to 0.82 on away since last season.
Browns CB Jason McCourty removed from injury report
McCourty will return from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury and he’ll likely shadow Marvin Jones, who popped off for 107 yards and two scores in Week 9. The receiver is 14th with nine red zone targets and tenth with five inside the ten-yard line. He’s only caught one of his looks within ten yards of the goal line and two total passes in the RZ but he has a nice chance of improving those catch rates this weekend against the Browns, whose defense is allowing the highest touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line (74%). Fantasy players may be scared off Jones because of McCourty’s high marks this season – he’s earned the fifth-best rating in our CB tool. However, McCourty’s underlying numbers aren’t horribly intimidating. He’s allowed a 66% catch rate and 0.97 yards per cover snap (32nd, per PFF). His grade appears to be a bit inflated because he’s picked off three passes which has lowered his passer rating to 56.3, the fifth-best mark in the league. He hasn’t really been beaten for touchdowns though, allowing just one so far. Either way, he appears to be a better matchup for receivers than slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who’s posted the best yards per cover snap (0.34) and second-best cover snaps per receptions rates (31). He could pose a tough challenge for Golden Tate, who’s only picked up one look inside the ten this season.
Other tagged players: Marvin Jones T.Y. Hilton and CB Quincy Wilson questionable for Week 10; Kamar Aiken ruled out
Hilton has been limited in practice after suffering a groin injury this week. If he’s able to play Sunday, he’ll have a tough matchup with the Steelers, whose defense ranks fifth in pass DVOA (per FO) and has limited receivers to the second-fewest PPR points per game. He’ll mainly line up across from Joe Haden, who’s posted the fifth-best yards per cover snap since Week 2 (0.57, per PFF). When he slips into the slot, he’ll see Mike Hilton, who’s allowed the third-fewest yards when lined up inside among full-time slot CBs (96). With the added injury risk, it may be best to not chase his big game against a much weaker Texans pass defense. Aiken’s absence opens up 4.1 targets per game that will be split up among Hilton, Jack Doyle, Donte Moncrief, and Chester Rogers, who will step into the WR3 role. Doyle has been a go-to for QB Jacoby Brissett, averaging 10.0 targets per game over the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has been similarly proficient shutting down tight ends though, ranking second in DVOA while allowing the tenth-fewest PPR points to the position.
Other tagged players: Kamar Aiken, Jack Doyle, Chester Rogers Kenny Golladay questionable for Week 10, RG T.J. Lang ruled out, Ziggy Ansah doubtful
Golladay hasn’t logged a snap since Week 3 but this could be the week he finally returns. If he’s able to get on the field, he’ll man the WR3 role but will likely be limited in some capacity and lose some plays to T.J. Jones. If Golladay is ultimately ruled out, it would set up an interesting spot for T.J. Jones as Marvin Jones will likely be stuck under Jason McCourty’s shadow and Golden Tate will matchup with Briean Boddy-Calhoun in the slot, both of whom are among the top 12 cover corners by PFF grading. That would leave T.J. with Jamar Taylor, who’s allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap (1.58, per PFF) and the third-highest passer rating (123.6). If Golladay suits up, it muddles things because of his potential limitations in his first game back. Lang entered the concussion protocol earlier this week and won’t be cleared in time to play. His absence would be a huge loss as he’s PFF’s seventh-ranked guard and fourth in pass protection. While Cleveland’s pass rush hasn’t been tremendous, checking in at 23rd in adjusted sack rate (per FO), Detroit’s offensive line is 26th in pass-blocking efficiency this season with Lang starting seven of eight games. Quarterback Matt Stafford has been under pressure on 37.6% of his dropbacks, the ninth-most in the league, and he’s taken the second-most sacks (26). Lang is also 12th in run blocking. As a unit, Detroit is dead last in adjusted line yards (2.88), so Lang’s absence will make it even harder for Ameer Abdullah to find running room. Cleveland’s strong point as been its run defense his season, they’re currently second in adjusted yards (2.92), first in rush DVOA, and allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs.
Other tagged players: Detroit Lions, TJ Jones, Ameer Abdullah Ryan Griffin placed on IR
The tight end suffered his second concussion of the season last week and the team decided to shut him down for the year. With Griffin sidelined this weekend, Fiedorowicz, who was just activated off the IR this week, will immediately step into a big role against the Rams. He has a difficult spot right off the bat though. In addition to having Tom Savage under center, he’ll have to battle a Rams defense that ranked fourth in TE DVOA heading into Week 9. They successfully shut down Evan Engram for most of the game Sunday, limiting him to just four catches on ten targets, although the rookie nabbed a garbage time score to save his fantasy day. Through nine weeks, the Rams are allowing the tenth-fewest PPR points per game to TEs. On the bright side, Savage may need to rely on Fiedorowicz as a quick safety valve often as the Rams boast the sixth-best adjusted sack rate this season (per FO).
Bill O'Brien: "C.J. Fiedorowicz will play a lot" Week 10
With Ryan Griffin (concussion) expected to be sidelined this weekend, Fiedorowicz, who was just activated off the IR this week, will immediately step into a big role against the Rams. He has a difficult spot right off the bat though. In addition to having Tom Savage under center, he’ll have to battle a Rams defense that ranked fourth in TE DVOA heading into Week 9. They successfully shut down Evan Engram for most of the game Sunday, limiting him to just four catches on ten targets, although the rookie nabbed a garbage time score to save his fantasy day. Through nine weeks, the Rams are allowing the tenth-fewest PPR points per game to TEs. On the bright side, Savage may need to rely on Fiedorowicz as a quick safety valve often as the Rams boast the sixth-best adjusted sack rate this season (per FO).
Emmanuel Sanders questionable for Week 10
Sanders is still rehabbing an ankle injury but he played with it last weekend and is fully expected to do the same against the Patriots this Sunday. He’ll arguably have a better matchup than his partner, Demaryius Thomas, as CB Malcolm Butler hasn’t been performing well. He’s allowed the 17th-highest passer rating (100.6, per PFF) while giving up a 64% catch rate, 360 yards (19th-most), and four touchdowns (fifth-most). Even so, quarterback Brock Osweiler appears to prefer Demaryius Thomas, as he did over eight appearances with the team in 2015. Last week against the Eagles, he sent 12 passes Thomas’ way and five towards Sanders. The latter played a season-low 29 snaps in his first game back though, which certainly played a factor in his market share. While he may not return to a full workload this weekend, he should be on the field more than last game. As a unit, the Patriots are allowing the third-most PPR points to receivers and they’ve allowed the second-most passes to WR2s (7.4, per FO). Although he doesn’t offer much savings from Demaryius Thomas on FanDuel where he’s only $400 cheaper ($6.6k), we’re projecting much lower ownership for him at just 1% compared to Thomas at 10%. That makes him a potential GPP pivot and a contrarian path to exposure on New England’s porous pass defense.
Other tagged players: Demaryius Thomas Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, RG Brandon Scherff, LG Shawn Lauvao, LT Trent Williams, and C Spencer Long questionable for Week 10
Crowder (hamstring) is expected to play through the questionable tag while Reed (hamstring) appears more doubtful after being downgraded to a DNP Friday. It’s a tough spot for Crowder as he’ll battle Terrence Newman in the slot; the CB has limited receivers to the 12th-fewest yards per cover snap (0.95) when lined up inside and a solid 59% catch rate – which is low for slot corners. The receiver had posted his best game of the year in Week 8, hauling in nine balls for 123 yards on 13 targets, and he’ll try to pick things up where he left off. Reed hasn’t been fully healthy all season and will likely be limited if he suits up. On top of that, Minnesota has held tight ends to the eighth-fewest yards this season (45/g). If he’s ruled out, Vernon Davis would continue to operate as their top tight end. He drew nine targets last week while Reed was inactive and hauled in six for 79 yards. With Crowder expected to return, he may not see as many looks this time around. The Vikings rank seventh in adjusted sack rate, so a healthier line will be very important for the Redskins offense. Cousins has taken the most sacks in the league over the past two weeks (10), in large part due to the injuries up front. They have four starters questionable heading into Sunday.
Other tagged players: Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins, Vernon Davis, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings Colts LB John Simon ruled out for Week 10
Simon was an integral part of the Colts run defense through the first six games until he was injured early on in Week 7. Without him, they’ve actually been decent against opposing ground games though. Outside of an outlier performance from T.J. Yeldon in which he picked up 122 yards on nine carries, the Colts haven’t allowed any running back to pick up more than 57 yards. That was Lamar Miller, who combined with D’Onta Foreman for 94 yards on 21 carries last week. The game prior, they handled the collection of Bengals runners, limiting them to 58 yards on the same number of attempts. This week may be a different story though, as they’re headed to Pittsburgh to face Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers and they’ll also be without DT Henry Anderson (IR, laryngeal fracture), the 24th-ranked interior defender in run-stop rate. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks ninth in adjusted line yards (per FO) and Bell has averaged 129.7 rushing yards over his last three games. He’s scored all five of his touchdowns on the road this season which is just one shy of Ben Roethlisberger’s six. Although Roethlisberger’s road splits are well known, the Colts are permitting the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs this year while allowing the most yards per attempt (8.3). Plus, top receiver Antonio Brown will have a mismatch with CB Pierre Desir, who struggled to contain Houston’s outside receivers, primarily DeAndre Hopkins on the left side, and finished the week with the sixth-most receptions allowed (6), fifth-most yards (86), and he gave up a TD to Tom Savage. On the season, Desir has earned PFF’s 98th cover grade out of 115 qualifiers.
Other tagged players: Le'Veon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown Matt Forte ruled out for Week 10, CB Morris Claiborne and ArDarius Stewart questionable
Forte experience swelling on his surgically repaired knee and the team has decided to be cautious with their starting running back. Bilal Powell is expected to start in his place but he’ll likely be in a timeshare with Elijah McGuire, who out-snapped Powell 20-15 last week and out-touched him 14-9. Even so, Powell should take over most of the receiving work. Forte averaged 5.8 receptions per game over the past four weeks while Powell added 2.3 during the same stretch. That alone presents promising volume against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 29th in receiving RB DVOA (per FO) and gives up the third-most PPR points per game to the position while posting bottom-11 numbers in RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Powell should be able to find success on the ground when given the opportunity as the Bucs rank 17th in adjusted line yards (4.14, per FO) and have given up the fifth-most rushing TDs to the position (0.88/g). Powell is just $4.0k on DraftKings this week and will likely be a chalky option. Claiborne will likely chase the speedy DeSean Jackson around the field, who runs a 4.35 40-yard dash while Claiborne clocked a 4.5. The last time Claiborne tried to handle a guy with that type of speed was when he defended Brandin Cooks and the receiver finished with six catches for 93 yards. Outside of that game, Claiborne has been excellent – he’s posted an impressive 50% catch rate, 0.73 yards per cover snap, and he hasn’t conceded a touchdown yet. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t one to shy away from tough matchups though, he’ll likely challenge the cornerback all game by sending plenty of targets Jackson’s way and the receiver may have the wheels to beat Claiborne. Stewart will fill in for the suspended Jeremy Kerley if he’s active. He probably won’t have a huge role as Kerley’s absence vacates just 3.4 targets per game.
Other tagged players: New York Jets, Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire Marqise Lee considered questionable for Week 10, expected to play
Lee took Wednesday off and returned to a limited practice Thursdays. It’s become a routine for him as he’s dealt with a few different injuries. Currently, he has a knee issue but he’s fully expected to play the Chargers on Sunday. He’ll likely be shadowed by Casey Hayward, PFF’s sixth cover corner, who’s limited receivers to a 50% catch rate despite battling WR1s all season. Lee posted his best game of the year last week, hauling in 8-of-12 targets for 75 yards and his first touchdown. With Leonard Fournette back and the Chargers run defense ranking 29th in adjusted line yards, the Jaguars should continue to lean on their running game. On top of that rookie Dede Westbrook is expected to play in his first NFL game, potentially stealing some looks from Lee.
Jordan Reed isn't practicing Friday, LT Trent Williams returned
Reed has been limited all week and has been downgraded to a DNP today, putting his Week 10 status in doubt. He hasn’t been fully healthy all season and would likely be limited if he suits up. On top of that, Minnesota has held tight ends to the eighth-fewest yards this season (45/g). If he’s ruled out, Vernon Davis would continue to operate as their top tight end. He drew nine targets last week while Reed was inactive and hauled in six for 79 yards. With Jamison Crowder expected to return, he may not see as many looks this time around.
Other tagged players: Washington Commanders Jeremy Hill ruled out for Week 10, Tyler Boyd will play, K Randy Bullock questionable
Hill was a late scratch Sunday after suffering an ankle injury in warmups and hasn’t been able to practice all week. His absence it will allow Joe Mixon to start again and pick up a few more touches. He garnered 16 in Jacksonville last Sunday and scored, although he only managed 45 yards. On the season, he’s produced just 2.9 yards per carry and his Week 10 opponent, the Titans, have held opponents to the fourth-fewest ypc this season (3.6). On top of that, they’ve given up the fewest rushing touchdowns (3). Setting up as a pass funnel defense, the Titans rank 22nd in pass DVOA and have permitted the seventh-most scores through the air (1.9/g). That opens up a nice spot for Andy Dalton on the road. Since 2015, the QB has tossed 1.7 touchdowns per game when away, a 0.5 touchdown bump over his production at home. His go-to receiver A.J. Green will square off with A’doree’ Jackson, who’s allowed the tenth-most touchdowns this season (3). Boyd probably won’t have too much of a role with John Ross and Josh Malone also working in behind Green and Brand LaFell. Bullock was inactive last week and it appears is back injury will keep him sidelined again this weekend. If he’s out, Marshall Koehn will take over the kicking duties. Both players are available for the minimum on FanDuel but the Bengals have a low implied total (18) and have attempted the fewest field goals this season (10).
DFS Alerts
Martellus Bennett is practicing Friday, Chris Hogan and RT Marcus Cannon aren't participating
Bennett passed his physical with New England and was on the practice field Friday. Although he’s dealing with a torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum, he may try to play. He could make a relatively easy transition into the offense considering he was with the team a season ago but he probably won’t make much of an impact behind Rob Gronkowski. With Hogan not expected to play, Gronk, who’s hit double-digit targets in three games and found the end zone five times, could be in line for a volume bump against the Broncos this weekend. Brady has loved targeted Hogan in scoring position, providing him the sixth-most red zone looks in the league (11); those could shift towards Gronkowski this weekend. It’s already a solid spot for him with the Broncos allowing the third-most PPR points to TEs, so the added opportunities would be very welcome. He’s currently second among tight ends with 2.11 yards per route run (per PFF), a number that’s better than all but seven wide receivers. Despite a hefty price tag, Gronk currently projects in our top five points-per-dollar TEs on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Cannon (ankle) is PFF’s top-graded tackle in run blocking, his absence would certainly make it harder for the stable of Patriots backs to find running room against a Denver defense currently sitting in third in adjusted line yards (3.13, per FO). He hasn’t been as effective in pass protection; he’s 30th in pressures allowed and he’s given up the third-most sacks (3) at his position. Even so, his absence won’t help the Patriots slow down Von Miller off the edge. Miller currently leads his position in pass rushing productivity this season and he’s seventh in the league with 8.0 sacks.
Other tagged players: Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots