DFS Alerts
Despite the Immense Volume, this Quarterback is Getting Overlooked
The Cardinals haven’t had a semblance of a running game without David Johnson. While I love seeing comeback stories, it doesn’t appear that Adrian Peterson has much left in the tank. The Cardinals have the highest pass play percentage in the NFL and that’s a trend that I expect to continue this week. They are playing at home against the Buccaneers, who are ranked dead last in adjusted sack rate this season. With time and with weapons, Palmer has plenty of upside at a very affordable price point across the industry.
A New Look on Life has Done Wonders for this Tight End
Austin Seferian-Jenkins made a big change in his life last year. He sought help for some personal issues and ended up losing 30 pounds in preparation for this season. He is more mentally and physically prepared for football than he arguably ever has been in his career. He is off to a great start in his first three games with the Jets, catching 15 of his 18 targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. This week’s game against the Patriots sets up perfectly for ASJ, as they will likely be playing from behind and be forced to air it out.
With All of the Value at Running Back, We Can Afford to Pay Up at Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown is coming off of a terrific game against the Jaguars, who arguably have the best secondary in all of football. Brown caught ten of his 19 targets for 157 yards. He also had a long touchdown that was called back because of a hold. Ben Roethlisberger’s road splits have been well documented over the years, but this sets up as a game where the Steelers will need to air it out again. They are sizable underdogs against the Chiefs and seeing as how Marcus Peters only lines up on one side of the field, Brown should be able to avoid his coverage for most of the game.
This Running Back May Have Established Himself as the Workhorse
We’ve been down this path before and the results haven’t been great. Jerick McKinnon in a freak athlete that has always had a ton of potential, he’s just never had a good offensive line or an ability to string together good starts. The hope is that it’s a little different this time around. The Vikings’ offensive line is better than in previous years and we know McKinnon is always a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. Last week against the Bears, he out-snapped Latavius Murray 47 to 22 and he parlayed 22 touches into 146 yards and a touchdown.
This Quarterback Smashes at Home and Smashes off Bye Weeks
Targeting Drew Brees in the Superdome has long been a favorite fantasy football tradition of mine. His splits at home are considerably better than they are on the road and he’s one of the best in football when given extra time to prepare. He has the home splits and the bye week splits in his favor. In fact, in his last six home games following a bye, Brees has averaged 360 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The Lions have improved their pass defense this season, but I’m still expecting a shootout from two high-scoring offenses.
Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs aren't practicing again Thursday; Diggs expects to play Sunday
Bradford isn’t expected to play this weekend. Diggs hasn’t practiced yet this week due to a groin injury but he told the media he expects to suit up Sunday. If Packers CB Kevin King is out, defensive coordinator Dom Capers may have no choice but to push Randall to the outside even though he wants him in the slot. That’s great for Diggs as the corner has permitted a 116.8 passer rating (67th among corners) and 1.55 yards per cover snap (59th, per PFF). There will be risk involved given Diggs’ injury but he’ll naturally come with a huge ceiling in this spot, even with Case Keenum throwing to him. Not only is Diggs fourth in yards per route run (2.56), he’s leading the league with eight receptions and a 61.5% catch rate on deep passes (20+ yards downfield). Keenum filled in for Bradford again on Monday and completed 81.0% of his 21 pass attempts while leading the Vikings to a 20-17 victory. He’s been very up and down over his four games this season as he appears to be a very matchup-sensitive passer but he’ll have a nice spot against the Packers, whose defense is allowing a 66.2% completion rate and a 94.5 passer rating.
Other tagged players: Stefon Diggs, Case Keenum
Wide Receiver Looks to Continue Touchdown Production
Will Fuller provides an interesting dilemma this week – his four receiving TDs (through only two games) place him tied for third in the league, and he has the highest average FanDuel points per game among all Wide Receivers. He has managed all of this on only nine targets on the season, however, which screams that the rest of his statistical output is a major outlier. With conflicting statistical information, it’s important to take a look at salary, match-up, and historical context. Fuller is $6,000 on FanDuel, which ranks 34th among all Wide Receivers, and $5,200 on DraftKings, which ranks 33rd. His match-up this weekend is at home against the Cleveland Browns, who rank 31st in pass defense DVOA this year. Last season, Fuller averaged over 6.5 targets per game, so while his touchdown production will certainly regress downwards, he could actually see more targets per game than he has so far this season. With his price and match-up, Fuller could be an excellent play in tournaments this weekend.
DeVante Parker isn't practicing Thursday
Parker is taking it day-by-day as he deals with an ankle injury. If he can’t return for tomorrow’s session, he’ll have a tough time getting cleared to play Sunday. If he’s able to play, he’s expected to have a favorable game flow with the Dolphins currently +11.5 dogs and he should be able to avoid Desmond Trufant’s coverage most of the game. Instead, he’ll primarily match up with Robert Alford, PFF’s 83rd cover corner. If he can’t suit up, his absence would open up targets for Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. Slot receiver Landry will have the best matchup whether Parker plays or not. When in the slot, Falcons nickel corner Brian Poole is allowing a 75% catch rate and 1.5 yards per cover snap (fifth-most, per PFF). Landry has been a ball hog this year, cornering off a 30% market share of the team’s targets and posting three games with double-digit looks. He’s struggled in the yards department though as his 5.7 average depth of target ranks 107th among 117 qualifying receivers.
Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry Terrance West, DT Brandon Williams, and CB Jimmy Smith aren't practicing Thursday; Breshad Perriman is participating
West is expected to miss some time after he re-aggravated a calf injury this past weekend. He’s essentially the third running back behind Javorius Allen and Alex Collins but his absence should provide a slight snap boost for the other two. Allen has now played 62.6% of the snaps and he’s out-carried Collins 66 to 37. However, Collins has been a much more effective back on the ground; his 7.1 ypc has him leading the team with 261 rushing yards to Allen’s 232. Collins hasn’t even been targeted once in the passing game though and Allen is second on the team with 24 looks. Volume should be on Allen’s side again when they take on the Bears in Week 6. He’ll continue to have more appeal in full PPR formats as he’s averaged 5.0 receptions per game over the past four weeks. Williams has been inactive for the past few weeks and still isn’t ready to return, which is a boost for Jordan Howard this weekend. Smith missed practice last week with an Achilles injury and still played on Sunday. He could be following a similar pattern this week. Perriman wasn’t at practice yesterday but his return today signals he’s on track to suit up Sunday. He’s been very inefficient this season, catching just 4-of-15 targets and he hasn’t topped four looks in any game this season – he won’t be a viable fantasy option in Week 6.
Other tagged players: Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens Travis Kelce and Albert Wilson will return to practice Thursday
Kelce was held out of practice yesterday as he works his way through the concussion protocol. He’s advanced to the next stage and will join his team for a limited session this afternoon. Albert Wilson will also be out there. He’s expected to fill the WR2 role vacated by Chris Conley following his season-ending Achilles injury. It may be a tough week to target either player in fantasy as they take on a tough Steelers secondary. They’re third in pass DVOA (per FO) and they’ve produced some of the best numbers in several passing stats this year: fewest yards allowed per game (140), fewest yards per attempt (5.4), second-fewest touchdowns (3), fourth-lowest passer rating (68.5). That said, here’s who they’ve played: Browns (30th in offense DVOA), Case Keenum-led Vikings (5th), Bears (28th), Ravens (24th), and Jaguars (18th). Quarterback Alex Smith has been on fire this year and he’s led the Chiefs to the number one spot in offense DVOA. He’ll look to break that trend at home this weekend and it seems that Vegas believes they can put points on the board, the Chiefs have the sixth-highest implied total of the week (25.25).
Other tagged players: Albert Wilson, Alex Smith Mohamed Sanu won't practice again Thursday, Julio Jones and LB Vic Beasley will participate
Jones is expected to play this weekend and Beasley is trending in that direction as well while Sanu is likely out. The Falcons host the Dolphins on Sunday as monster -11.5 favorites with an implied total of 29.25 points. Although game flow may not work in Jones’ favor, he could do plenty of damage early against Dolphins CB Xavien Howard. Prior to playing a Titans team with Matt Cassel under center, Howard had the fifth-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.8). As a unit, Miami ranks 29th in both pass and WR1 DVOA (per FO). Plus, if Sanu misses the game, Jones’ market share should increase. In that scenario, Taylor Gabriel would be elevated to the WR2 role and should receive a larger workload as well.
Other tagged players: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons Rookie Sensation to be a Popular Choice
Deshaun Watson will be a popular choice this weekend, currently projected by RotoGrinders to be the highest-owned Quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There are some good reasons why. He is second in the league with 12 passing touchdowns, and when you add in his two rushing scores he leads the league in total touchdowns. Houston is playing at home this weekend with the third-highest projected point total on the week, against a Cleveland passing defense that is 29th in passing touchdowns allowed and is currently allowing the highest QB-rating against in the league. Despite all of this going for him, Watson is only the 6th-most expensive QB on DraftKings at $6,700 and the 8th-most expensive QB on FanDuel at $7,900. Watson is looking like an excellent way to start a cash team on both sites this weekend.
Jack Doyle will return to practice Thursday; Chester Rogers expected to play Week 6
The tight end was inactive this past weekend due to a concussion. He’ll return to a full practice today though and has a good shot to clear the protocol in time for Monday night’s showdown with the Titans. Despite missing a game, Doyle is second on the team with 17 receptions. He’s demonstrated chemistry with quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as highlighted by his game against the Browns in which he caught all eight of his targets for 79 yards. He figures to be the QB’s second option in the passing game behind T.Y. Hilton against the Titans, whose defense ranks 21st in TE DVOA. Although they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to the position, they haven’t had a strong TE schedule. The only two times they were challenged, they gave up a 5/56/0 line to Jared Cook and a 7/72/0 to Jimmy Graham. Given Doyle’s place on the targets totem pole, he should receive a solid workload in what appears to be a favorable spot. Chester Rogers hasn’t played all year but he’s expected to suit up this weekend. He won’t be a viable fantasy option given his place on the depth chart.
Other tagged players: Chester Rogers Sterling Shepard, Paul Perkins, and several other notable Giants aren't practicing again Thursday;
Also out for the Giants today: DE Olivier Vernon, C Weston Richburg, LB Jonathan Casillas, and S Landon Collins. On top of that, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been suspended indefinitely. It’s the second missed practice in a row for all these guys, which is bad news for an 0-5 Giants team that’s already lost three of their top four receivers for the season. If those defensive players can’t get back on the practice field tomorrow, New York could be depleted on that side of the ball as well. Not surprisingly, the spread keeps widening for their Sunday night game against the Broncos, the Giants are now +12 road dogs with an implied total of 13.5 points.
Other tagged players: Paul Perkins, New York Giants Bilal Powell and Muhammad Wilkerson aren't practicing again Thursday; Matt Forte will participate
Powell wasn’t able to practice Wednesday either as he tends to a calf strain. ESPN’s Rich Cimini believes it will “be tough for him to play” Sunday. With Forte returning to practice, he should resume his starting role against the Patriots Sunday. New England’s defense has struggled so far, ranking 27th in both rush and receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the most PPR points to RBs this season. Although that seems like a terrific spot, Forte could be somewhat limited given his injury is turf toe. It would help him volume-wise if Powell sits but he’ll still cede touches to Elijah McGuire. In the three games he’s played with both Powell and Forte active this year, he’s only touched the ball between eight and 11 times. Forte also happens to be a very inconsistent scorer. He’s only found the end zone in one of his last nine games (although he managed three touchdowns in that outing). It’s been all or nothing with him, he only scored in four matchups last season and three of them were multi-score games. Given the upside and the matchup, he’s worth consideration in tournaments if Powell is out and we get positive news regarding his health as the week progresses, but he won’t be a strong cash option due to injury and volume concerns.
Other tagged players: New York Jets, Matt Forte