DFS Alerts
Potential Shootout Could Mean Points for this WR
Yes, I’m concerned about the coverage of outstanding Detroit cornerback Darius Slay on Michael Thomas this weekend, but the fact remains that the Detroit defense has allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game this season. They’re also coming off a game against Carolina in which Cam Newton threw TD passes to three different receivers (one of them a running back) and 175 yards to a fourth receiver (tight end Ed Dickson). Thomas is 6th among wide receivers this season with 6.3 receptions per game and ranks 10th in targets per game at 9.3. New Orleans is playing at home as a four-point favorite in the game with the highest Vegas point total on the week, so despite the cornerback match-up, you won’t want to overlook the possibility of Thomas putting up a high point total in a potential shootout.
Mike Williams expects to play Week 6
The rookie receiver is “expecting to play” this weekend. It’ll mark his NFL debut as he began the season rehabbing a back injury. Williams will return to a limited role but he could carve out a larger workload in the coming weeks as he competes with current number two receiver Tyrell Williams and the inconsistent Travis Benjamin for looks. Keenan Allen will remain the number one wideout, he currently holds a 26.3% market share of the team’s targets and he’s third in the league with 51 passes thrown his way. He has a very nice matchup with Oakland CB T.J. Carrie in the slot this weekend. When inside, Carrie has allowed the 12th-most yards per cover snap (1.26, per PFF) and a fantasy-friendly 85.7% catch rate.
Other tagged players: Keenan Allen
Don’t Overlook the Obvious
Sometimes our search for a unique lineup causes us to overlook obvious opportunities to put up points. Drew Brees and the Saints are playing at home, as favorites, in the game with the highest over/under of the week. Most QBs put up better passing numbers at home, and Brees is well-known in this regard, averaging 2.31 passing touchdowns per game at home over his career, compared to 1.68 on the road. Detroit’s passing defense has been inconsistent this season, ranking 27th in passing yards per game allowed, and 26th in yards per passing attempt. With a matchup against Drew Brees in the Superdome on tap, I wouldn’t expect those numbers to look any better after this week.
The Question: Cheap Wide Receiver Production. The Answer...
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed the 12th-most targets to wide receivers this year, the sixth-most yards, and the fifth-most touchdowns…and yet, here are some notable “alpha wide receiver” outputs against them this year: T.Y. Hilton: 4-49-0 /// Dez Bryant: 2-12-1 /// Pierre Garcon: 4-36-0 /// Alshon Jeffery: 3-31-0 /// With Patrick Peterson sticking to number one receivers (Mike Evans this week), we see a lot of targets move to other guys – which will benefit both Humphries and DeSean Jackson. While Jameis Winston still peppered Evans with a ridiculous 18 targets against the Cardinals last year (laughably completing only six of them, with Peterson giving Evans fits), the Bucs have a better supporting cast this year (with an emphasis placed on being less one-dimensional through the air), and Humphries and DeSean should rack up production. Humphries makes for a great salary-saver in cash games, with enough upside to make him viable in tourneys.
The Best Running Back Value Play?
While elbows-deep in NFL Edge work on Monday through Wednesday, I spend almost zero time paying attention to what anyone else in the industry is saying. As such, I was surprised to input my consensus value rankings at the end of Edge writing, and to see that most of my fellow rankers had put Ingram near the top of their list. In spite of the departure of Adrian Peterson, I figured most people would look to Jerick McKinnon over Ingram this week – leaving the latter overlooked – but it appears that Ingram is in the minds of the people, as he very much should be. Ingram has target counts of five, five, four, and eight on the year, and he should see at least 14 carries. This puts him into the same workload range as McKinnon, but Ingram’s scoring potential is higher than his salary-relief counterpart, as McKinnon will give way to Latavius Murray close to the goal line. This is an excellent week to pay down at running back, and Ingram is one of the top places to do so.
Who Is This Week's George Kittle?
While the easy answer is that this week’s George Kittle is the same as last week’s George Kittle (whose name was George Kittle), Austin Hooper also has an excellent tight end matchup, and with Mohamed Sanu leaving behind six or seven targets, there will be added opportunity this week as well. For all the talk about “how awful the Dolphins’ defense is,” it’s worth noting that Miami has allowed the second-fewest touchdowns and the fewest red zone targets to wide receivers on the year, while they have seen the eighth-most targets to the tight end in spite of playing one fewer game than most teams in the league. There are no volume or production guarantees here, but the upside is high and ownership should be low, making Hooper a strong tourney target.
Sneaky Good Spot
Miller is a sneaky good GPP play against the Ravens. Baltimore is one of the top defensive plays on the slate, and that usually leads to very low ownership for the skill players on the other side. Miller is $2,900 on DraftKings this weekend. He was targeted seven times in Trubisky’s debut on Monday night, and sets up as a high volume guy. Rookie quarterbacks love looking for their tight ends, and with the receiving core of the Bears, I expect Miller to be looked at a lot. Miller has run 28.6% of his routes in the slot this season, and he has a 16.4% target share. We saw the snaps go up, and the target share go up with the new quarterback. The Ravens are 32nd in DVOA against right ends this season, and they’re allowing 53.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. It’s not a core play for me, but it’s a sneaky high upside spot I like for large field GPPs.
Shadow Coverage Will Help My Upside
I just finished writing up Jackson because the number one corner would shadow, and that’s exactly what should happen for the Vikings. Xavier Rhodes will shadow in this game, and I would bet he’s going to shadow Jordy Nelson. This is going to open up targets for Adams, and he’s still really cheap on DraftKings. Rodgers has made it clear he likes Adams in the red zone, and Adams has the second most red zone receptions among wide receivers this season. He’s averaging 7.8 targets per game, and he has a 20.7% target share in this offense. With Nelson getting shadowed, I expect the target share to go up for Adams. Green Bay is throwing the ball 42 times per game, which is the fifth highest this season. Adams has a lot of upside in a good matchup, and I’m going to load up on him on DraftKings.
Calling My Shot With This Wide Receiver
Jackson is one of my favorite plays this weekend, and I really hope people just overlook him. Patrick Peterson is the best corner in the league, and I will argue that with anyone. He will likely shadow Mike Evans in this spot, and according to PFF, he’s only allowed five catches in shadow coverage this season. This opens the door for Jackson and Brate. Jackson will see a lot of Justin Bethel on the other side of the field. Bethel is being targeted 7.6 times per game this season, and he’s allowed four touchdowns and 300 yards in five games. Tampa had ten days to get ready for this game, and Jackson wasn’t listed on the injury report. He’s coming off his best game as a Buc, and he’s yet to find the end zone this season. I’m calling my shot; he’s going for 100+ yards and a touchdown this weekend.
Large Field GPP Play
One of my favorite contrarian plays this weekend is Theo. The Saints are coming off a BYE week, and I fully expect them to put up points in this game. Riddick becomes a great option when the Lions get down, and he’s out snapped Abdullah in both of the games the Lions have trailed in this season. With Marshon Lattimore playing really well, and Ken Crawley playing well on the other side, beating the Saints in the middle is going to become a theme this season. They’re allowing 77.9 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season, and they’re ranked 20th in DOVA against pass catching backs. Abdullah could certainly burn me in this spot, but at this price tag, I’m willing to take a few shots with Theo in this A+ matchup.
Rookie Breakout Game Incoming
With Rob Kelley doubtful, Perine should be in line for a nice workload this weekend against the 49ers. If Washington gets up in this game like they should, Perine could get 20+ touches in a very positive game script. Kelley left the game in week two, and was out for the Oakland game in week three. Perine played 26 snaps in week two, and had 21 attempts on the ground. In week three, he played 30 snaps, and carried the ball 19 times. Thompson is the pass catching back and could have a big game as well this weekend, but Perine is the forgotten piece on FanDuel this weekend. The 49ers have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing running back this season. At his cheap price tag, if he finds the end zone, he’s going to crush value on all sites this weekend.
This Cheap Option Has a Ton of Upside
I think it’s a great weekend to pay down at quarterback on DraftKings, and it could potentially help you fit in everything you want on FanDuel. This is the game of the weekend for me, and with everyone playing Watson (I’m playing him too) I think Hogan goes overlooked. Houston put J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on IR earlier this week. This is a team that blitz’s second most in the NFL, and will be without two of their best pass rushers. We saw the Browns run option plays in the second half against the Jets, and I think we see more designed run plays for Hogan against the Texans. He was 16 for 19 for 194 yards and two touchdowns in the second half of that Jets game, and the game script completely changed with him at quarterback. I’m hoping with Hogan at starting quarterback, we see a positive game script from the start of this game. If that happens, I expect this to be one of the highest scoring games on the weekend.
Bryant Could Tomahawk the Chiefs Pass Defense This Sunday
I am hoping people forget about Martavis because of other players in his price range and his lack of production thus far this season. Big Ben has been awful this season – a big reason why Bryant has only 15 receptions on 31 targets. I love this matchup though for him and the Steelers pass catchers as the Chiefs have allowed the most TDs to receivers of any team in football as well as the 2nd most fantasy points. His speed and athleticism should give the Kansas City corners a hard time and we all know the upside for Bryany is through the roof. At the end of this day, this is going to come down to projected ownership. I would like to be double the field unless Martavis gets to the 20% range which I am not expecting. The play is not without risk but not many players have this kind of upside, at this matchup and price.
Target the Patriots With McCown for Huge Upside at Low Cost
The Jets starting QB is starting to grow on me and may be one of my favorite QB plays by the time Sunday roles around. The Patriots have been one of the worst defenses against the pass having allowed under only 300 yards once and that was the huge 292 yard, multiple TD outing to Deshaun Watson and the Texans. The way New England moves the ball and seemingly scores at will forces their opponents to air it out more than they usually do and when McCown is forced to throw he is a above average QB. He has not been in that situation much this year and should be this Sunday. I wish there were a receiver on the Jets I liked that I could pair with McCown but I am having trouble figuring out what to do there. ASJ will be over owned and Anderson and Kearse are wilcards that we have no idea on. You can pair McCown with any of those three in large field GPP contests but I prefer pairing him with Elijah McGuire as the Patriots have been manhandled by pass catching backs and that will be the role McGuire has in this game and moving forward. Right now I have 10% McCown but could see that number jump to 25-30% by Sunday.
The Case for Keenum
For the most part this week I am going to pay up at QB as there is plenty of value at RB and WR and I do not love the cheap QBs. However, there is a case (pun intended) to be made for Keenum as he has plenty of upside in a potential game script that could force him to throw 40 plus times. This potential could make him the best QB play this week on a point per dollar basis. We know Rodgers and the Pack can score against anyone, especially indoors, and their defense is vulnerable as they rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to the QB position. I believe this defense is worse than that as they played two teams in the Bears and Seahawks whose QBs have not shown the ability to score fantasy points. The other three games the Packers were lit up by Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, and Dak Prescott and that could have been even worse if teams were not able to run the ball successfully. I don’t see the Vikings people able to establish the run with Murray and McKinnon and Keenum should excel with targets like Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph. Thus far this season, Keenum has played very well and crushed his one positive matchup against the Bucs to the tune of 31.5 fpts. If he gets rolling against the questionable secondary of Green Bay, I can see that happening again. It is not the safest play in the world but it is safer than most think and comes with plenty of upside. I love pairing him with Thielen and/or Diggs with some Rudolph or McKinnon. You can also run it back with any of the Packers receivers or Aaron Jones for a nice game stack. I am planning on playing about 20 percent Keenum in GPP contests.