DFS Alerts
Second-Year QB Looks to Avenge Playoff Loss
Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys come into Week 5 with the second-highest implied point total at 27.25, with only the New England Patriots carrying a higher implied total. Prescott has been impressive his sophomore season, with only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers having thrown more touchdowns than Prescott’s 8 TD passes. He has been consistent as well, scoring at least 17 DraftKings points in each of his four starts. Green Bay’s pass defense seems like a difficult match-up with only 754 passing yards allowed (fifth-best in the league), but they actually rank 17th in yards-per-attempt allowed, at 7.3 Y/A. Prescott and the Cowboys are looking to avenge last year’s 34-31 playoff loss to Green Bay, a game that Prescott performed well in despite the loss, with 302 passing yards and 3 TDs.
He Would be the Top TE on the Main Slate
I know this isn’t on the main slate but I have to mention this play. Rudolph has been quiet thus far in 2017 due to blocking much more but I think the Vikings are done with that as they tried to get him the ball plenty in the 4th quarter against the Lions last week. It didn’t work out well then, but it will. He’s a top five TE and the lack of production won’t last, even with Keenum at QB. There aren’t any numbers to back it up but he’d be my number one TE on the main slate because he is so much better than what he’s shown, is too cheap, and has massive upside with the Vikings needing to get him the ball more. The Bears have also been hurt by the TE position (18th in the NFL). I’ll have 75 to 100 percent exposure to Rudolph on any slate he is available.
This Chargers TE is Ready For His 2017 Break Out
Ready for a breakout game in 2017 from Mr. Henry? Well… wait no more as I think it’s coming this weekend against the Giants. Henry has had to bide his time as the Chargers fed the ball to Antonio Gates to get him the TE TD record and that was followed by some tough defenses making his 2017 thus far very unimpressive. This will change on Sunday as TEs have been tearing up the Giants (currently worst in the league against the position) as they defend other receivers very well thanks to the likes of Jenkins and Cromartie. We know the Chargers love to air it out and Henry should be the biggest beneficiary this week. He will have no ownership and as he showed us last year has as much upside as any TE below the big four – maybe even as high as that bunch. The kid is really good and Rivers loves to use his TEs. Like I said, the matchup doesn’t get any better and I am currently planning to play Henry at a 30 to 50 percent clip as I’m not crazy about the other options at the position this week. Like I said, this is HH’s spot!
These Two Dolphins Will be Doing Flips
I know I’m only supposed to name one player in these insights but I can’t name just one of these receivers from the Dolphins without naming the other. We want to target receivers against the Titans as they love to force opponent’s to pass by stacking the box – something which makes little sense since they have become the worst pass defense in the NFL while doing so. They have allowed 8 TDs to QB’s over the past two weeks and despite the Fins offensive woes, this is too good a spot to pass on. The obvious thing to do is play Landry on DraftKings and all other PPR sites and play Parker on FanDuel due to his low price tag there as well as his TD upside. If you want to use both with Cutler in a GPP, I can see it paying off but it’s probably a little thin, even for me. The truth is I love both these guys but likely only one of them will have a big game with the other putting up a nice, but not great, game. I will be splitting the two like I mentioned and will be checking Chris Gimino’s ownership before making my final decision. As of right now though I think one of these two will be in about half of my lineups.
Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry This Cowboy is the TOP Play of the Week and His Name is not Zeke
I am glad Dez has been fairly quiet thus far in 2017 – at least in relation to this week that is as it cost me quite a bit last week when he hauled in only 5 of his 13 targets. I’m hoping this slow start will keep people off of him but expect that by the ened of the week people will be on him – I just plan on being on him more than the field. If they have 25%, I’ll have 50%. The matchup, targets, price, and game script all carry far too much upside (with a high floor) to NOT play Dez this week. Coupled with the questionable Packer secondary and a laughably low price for a player who leads the league in redzone targets and you have the TOP overall play of the week. You can pair him with Dak and Zeke and run it back with a Packer WR if you want to as this is the game to stack this week. I am planning on doubling the field with my Dez exposure but may just go 50% in all formats.
The Dak Attack Will be in Full Force This Sunday
This game will be the fantasy Game of the Week and I am expecting ownership to lean to Rodgers on the other side of the game and Zeke being chalky – all of this means less ownership for Dak. He is still one of the best point per dollar plays at QB, even despite his elevated price, and with a likely shoot out he has massive upside. Green Bay is questionable at the back end of their defense and I believe they are much worse than their numbers indicate. Prescott is a safe play with a high floor making him viable for cash games as well. My projections have him at 25 DK fpts with upside for 35 fpts. I love the Dak to Dez combo in GPP’s this week and will have a ton of exposure in all formats to that pairing. He is by no means a must play but with Zeke catching balls out of the backfield and Dez getting a ton of targets, I think you can stack the three in GPP’s and come back with Jordy or Cobb from the other side. I am planning to play 20% Dak in GPP’s.
Doug Baldwin (groin), Jimmy Graham (ankle), C.J. Prosise (ankle), CB Richard Sherman (groin), CB Jeremy Lane (groin), and S Earl Thomas (knee) didn't practice Wednesday
LG Luke Joeckel (knee) and DE Cliff Avril (neck) didn’t participate either. Avril has already been ruled out for Week 5 and there’s no timetable for his return. It’s a long injury list for the Seahawks, we’ll have to see if these guys can practice tomorrow before getting worried. Lane appears to be the most questionable of the group; he was forced from Week 4’s game early with a groin strain. Coach Pete Carroll said he expects Prosise to suit up. Baldwin and Graham have been banged up but continue to play despite missing practices. Sherman hasn’t missed a game in his NFL career and it doesn’t seem like that streak will snap this week.
Other tagged players: Jimmy Graham, C.J. Prosise
Saints LB Alex Anzalone placed on IR
Anzalone was having a decent season, ranking 35th among 83 linebackers, per PFF grading. His absence should open up more snaps for Craig Robertson at WLB, who’s earned a poor 46.1 run-defense grade (58th). That’ll be an upgrade for Ameer Abdullah in Week 6 when the Saints host the Lions after their bye.
Other tagged players: Ameer Abdullah Marquise Goodwin (concussion) limited in Wednesday's practice
Goodwin is currently in the concussion protocol after suffering his fourth one since August 2016. His participation today indicates he still has a shot to suit up this weekend against the Colts. If he can suit up, he’ll get some run against Vontae Davis, who didn’t look very good in his return to the field. The CB allowed five receptions for 101 yards after being targeted six times (per PFF).
Cowboys LB Sean Lee (hamstring) didn't practice Wednesday
Lee was inactive this past weekend and Todd Gurley tore the Dallas defense up for 215 yards and a touchdown. If Lee misses more time, it’ll be a boost for the Packers backfield. It’s not yet clear which running backs will suit up for Green Bay though, as Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams are banged up. Williams was able to get in a full practice Wednesday, which puts him on track to play and potentially split duties with Aaron Jones. If Montgomery plays, he’ll be the lead dog, but his broken ribs could prevent him from receiving a full workload.
Other tagged players: Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones Marcus Mariota (hamstring) limited in practice Wednesday
The fact that he was out there at all is a positive sign for the Titans quarterback. He’s expected to be a game-time decision this weekend but if he keeps practicing, there’s a chance we could find out his status sooner. If Mariota ends up being ruled out, Matt Cassel will start. He’s an inaccurate passer with a career completion percentage of 58.8%. That was on display last Sunday when he went 4-for-10 with two picks. Although the Titans have a favorable matchup with a fantasy-friendly secondary, it’s going to be a little hard to trust the pass-catchers to produce with Cassel throwing the ball. At least he has a terrific offensive line protecting him that ranks second in pass-blocking efficiency (per PFF) and the Dolphins defensive line currently ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (per FO). If Mariota can suit up, he’ll have a great outlook and so will his pass-catchers – Miami has allowed the third-highest passer rating (112.4) and sixth-most passing yards per game (272).
Buccaneers LB Kwon Alexander ruled out for Thursday night, LB Lavonte David, S T.J. Ward, and S Keith Tandy all doubtful
Tampa Bay is expected to be thin at linebacker and safety tomorrow night when they take on the Patriots. It’s bad timing heading into a matchup with New England’s high-powered passing attack that comes complete with pass-catching backs and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Tampa Bay’s strong defensive line play has set up a pass-funnel defense. Through three games, their DL ranks fifth in adjusted line yards per carry (3.09, per FO) and the Bucs check in at third in rush DVOA. On the other end of the spectrum, they’re 27th in pass defense and have given up the second-most passing yards per game (316). They’ve allowed WR1s the second-most yards per game (114.2) and Brandin Cooks will square off with Vernon Hargreaves the most, who’s allowed the third-most yards per cover snap (2.0, per PFF). With two of their starting linebackers on the shelf, the Bucs have ranked 30th in receiving RB DVOA, setting up a nice spot for James White. The back has accounted for the second-most targets on the team (26) and he’s been very efficient, hauling in 22 of those looks. In a shootout last week with the Panthers, White out-snapped Mike Gillislee by a mile 43 to 18 and could easily do so again in a favorable spot that features the highest total of the week (55.5) and a reasonably close spread for a Patriots game (5.5 in favor of New England).
Other tagged players: Tom Brady, James White, Brandin Cooks, Mike Gillislee Rex Burkhead and CB Eric Rowe ruled out for Thursday night, Rob Gronkowski questionable
It’ll be Burkhead’s third missed game in a row. The Patriots also listed CB Stephon Gilmore, LB Dont’a Hightower, WR Matt Slater, and RT Marcus Cannon as questionable. Gronkowski is dealing with a new thigh injury, which he may have sustained in today’s practice, but he’s still expected to play tomorrow night. Rowe has played very poorly this season, earning the worst PFF grade among all 111 corners (34.1). His absence could potentially be an upgrade in the slot as Jonathan Jones has picked up a 63.4 score (57th) but Jones has still allowed a 103.6 passer rating. He’s right up there with Malcolm Butler (109.2) and Gilmore (101.8) as the whole cornerback group continues to struggle. Safety Patrick Chung has lined up a ton at linebacker (85 snaps) and slot corner (53) and he’s been bad in coverage, allowing a 15/217/1 line on 22 targets. New England has used safety Devin McCourty at LB (40 snaps) and slot CB (42) as well, but he primarily sticks to safety alignment (78). He’s also been a disaster, allowing three touchdowns through four games along with 193 yards. As a unit, they’ve allowed the highest-passer rating (116.5) and the most passing yards (324 per game). Every opposing quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards and at least two touchdowns. In the past, the Patriots have been able to limit their opponents’ top weapons but this season they’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to WR1s (106.9, per FO). It’s a shaping up to be a great spot for Jameis Winston and Mike Evans.
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots, Matt Slater Bargain-Priced WR Has Produced the Last Three Weeks
Jaron Brown looked like a one-week wonder when he had four catches for 73 yards on 11 targets filling in for John Brown in Week 2, and again a fluke producer in Week 3 when he caught a touchdown along with 27 yards on six targets in week 3. But Week 4 looked like a breakout for the Cardinals wide receiver, with Brown putting up 105 yards and eight catches on 12 targets, even with teammates John Brown and J.J. Nelson available and playing in the game. With Arizona facing a Philadelphia defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this season, Jaron Brown is looking like a bargain priced at $4,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Veteran QB Racking Up The Passing Yards This Season
Through four weeks of the NFL season, the league leader in passing yards is no surprise – Tom Brady. The player in second place, however, is a surprise, with Carson Palmer totaling 1,282 passing yards through four games, with at least 325 in each of the last three. The loss of David Johnson has left the Cardinals passing more than they did last year (and probably more than they would like), with Palmer averaging 45.8 attempts per game this year, compared to less than 40 attempts per game last season. Arizona’s Week 5 opponent has been generous through the air so far this year, with the Eagles’ 1,140 passing yards allowed second only to New England this season. At only $7,200 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings, Palmer is shaping up as a tournament bargain this weekend.