DFS Alerts
Take this TE Defense to Town
Just like Spinal Tap, we like volume in DFS. The Browns have a run defense that is surprisingly efficient this season (rank 5th) despite play 3 tough divisional opponents. Maybe it’s also because they skew production towards their horrible pass defense too. One of the most noteworthy stats I see is that they allowed a league-leading 31% of targets to the TE position. That’s 11% over the league average. They have also allowed a 63% successful play rate (rank 28) and the most rec TDS per game to the TE dating back to last season (3rd this season). Austin Seferian-Jenkins led the Jets in target share Week 3 and remained involved last week in a tough, run-centric matchup. I am fully expecting this to be a very strong performance from ASJ this weekend, and I am comfortable using him in any format given the matchup and likelihood of a more pass-heavy approach from the Jets than we have seen thus far.
Vikings signing RB Stevan Ridley
He’ll add depth at the position with Dalvin Cook sidelined.
Rush Defense Inefficiency in an Unexpected Place
The Seahawks rank 30th in rush defense efficiency this season according to Sharpfootballstats.com. So what does a guy have to do to be the top priced RB on fantasy sites? Todd Gurley metrics are in every way that of the top RB in the fantasy game through 4 Weeks. Some examples: 1) Player Profiler Dominator rating ranked #1 and not close. 2) Goal line attempts per game rank #1. 3) Ranked 4th in evaded tackles. 4) Only .3 behind Le’Veon Bell in rush attempts per game. 5) Ranked 4th in RB targets per game and 1st among non-satellite backs. 6) Ranked 1st in RB receiving yards per game. I don’t really know what else to say. The numbers suggest this is a good matchup for the best fantasy RB in the NFL through four weeks. I’m not going to tell you what to do. I’m just laying out the information for you to decide for yourself.
As reported by: PlayerProfiler.com Rob Gronkowski (thigh, questionable) expected to play Thursday night
The tight end was a late addition to the injury report Wednesday. Ian Rapoport suggested Gronk “figures to be limited some” tonight but there doesn’t seem to be too much concern among beat writers. Gronkowski has a terrific spot against a banged up Tampa Bay defense that’s expected to be without two of it’s top linebackers and two safeties. Although Tampa Bay ranks fourth in TE DVOA, they’ve allowed the fifth-most passes to the position (8.4 per game, per FO) and they won’t be at full strength. While Gronk’s injury adds some risk, it appears he’ll be fine for a great matchup.
This WR is the Captain Now
Here are the slot receivers that have played the Panthers thus far: Trent Taylor / Jordan Matthews / Brandon Coleman / Hogan + Amendola. Only the Patriot duo gives us any pause whatsoever, and it should be no surprise that teams relied on guys like Pierre Garcon and Michael Thomas more so than their slot men. Things should be a lot different this week with Golden Tate in town, and Captain Munnerlyn can expect his four-week vacation to end. He has only been targeted 4 times all season per our PlayerProfiler.com stats. Munnerlyn ranked 91 in Player Profiler coverage rating in 2016. Against a zone type defense in ATL Tate saw double-digit targets in Week 2. Carolina runs over 70% of their calls in something that is not classified as man coverage and 60% classified as a zone. Tate has the short area skills to find holes in the zone, and I like his chances at heavy target volume again. We like volume in daily fantasy, and we don’t mind beatable matchups. I think that we get both with Golden Tate in Week 5.
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. A WR CB Matchup You Must Not Ignore
Devante Parker will explode. It is going to happen at some point, and that point might be this weekend while in the coverage of one of these clowns: LeShaun Sims, Adoree Jackson, or Brice McCain. As of now, I would expect either Sims or McCain to be the guy he sees the most. I am not sure it matters much who it is. Parker elevated in style over much tougher competition for a big gain in week 2, and I know he is capable of doing this for us on any given week. It doesn’t hurt that a guy like Sims has yielded 2 TD passes in just 64 pass snaps, or that Adoree Jackson has allowed 3. It also helps that they have combined to allow over 300 yards passing as a tandem, per Sports Info Solutions Inc. None of the Titan defensive backs should give us pause here, and I am officially upgrading Parker and his chance at an explosive performance.
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. This is How You Fill the Slot
Jay Cutler has not performed well in the past two weeks. Logic told us the defense of the Jets and Saints were beatable. The pass efficiency numbers to date tell us a different story, as they are rank 14th and 16th respectively in pass efficiency defense per Sharpfootballstats.com. This week, he gets a true quality passing matchup by the numbers. The Titans are 29th in overall passing efficiency and feature several beatable spots at cornerback. With the talent surrounding Cutler, this is a big test for his current viability as an NFL passer. Jarvis Landry is a slot man. Like me, he loves the slot. He has lined up wide left or right just 12% of the time per Sports Info Solutions Inc. That will pit him most frequently against Logan Ryan. Ryan is grading out quite poorly this season, with a 147 passer rating in coverage per PlayerProfiler.com. The target volume is decently high at 4.8 per game, and that should be expected to increase this week given Landry’s (essentially) league-leading 3.4 yards separation at target and massive 11 targets per game average. Ryan is also on the short list of defenders who have allowed more than 1 TD pass in coverage this season, further elevating the outlook for Landry.
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. Play this WR Indoors
The San Francisco DBs don’t stay parked on one side of the field. They also don’t truly shadow a WR. That is going to put T.Y. Hilton (who moves around the formation as much as anyone) in a position to see a variety of players in coverage. Advantage: Hilton. Rashard Robinson probably gets the most opportunity on Hilton. He’s allowed a 113.9 passer rating in coverage and 6 targets per game. He has also allowed 2 TDs per Sports Info Solutions Inc. He is far from a guy who is rating well this season, and I’ll reference his relatively low rating on both our metrics based scoring system and the game charting system of Pro Football Focus. This is a spot worth targeting. The rest of the gang isn’t much better with QBs peppering Dontae Johnson with 9 targets per game. K’Waun Williams has played well by the numbers, but I’ll trust what I see on PFF in terms of his player grade as a reason to be skeptical. When you package the entire pass defense together, we’re talking about the 26th most efficient unit in the league. We saw what TY Hilton was able to do against another inefficient unit in Cleveland. Playing at home on the fast track, we could see him do it again this week.
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. Someone Has To Catch The Ball
If you’re playing on DraftKings or FantasyDraft this weekend, I really like Agholor as a boom or bust play. With Patrick Peterson shadowing Jeffery, we could see a repeat of Week 1 for Agholor. When in shadow coverage, Peterson has only allowed three catches for 38 yards and one touchdown this season. Tyvon Branch is one of the best cover linebackers in the NFL, and Ertz has a tough matchup ahead of him this weekend. If the running game struggles to get going, I fully expect Agholor to benefit because of matchups. He’s played 127 of 181 passing snaps this season. The Eagles rank 7th in team pass plays per game.
Look For This Wide Receiver To Use His Speed
Hilton has had at least six targets in every game this season, and he’s played 90% of the snaps. He’s always been a lot better at home, and draws great matchups against Rahard Robinson and Dontae Johnson on the outside. He hasn’t gone into the slot a lot this season, but if he does here, he has a great matchup as well. Hilton has a career average of 9.53 yards per target at home, and he averages 81.5 yards per game at home. He had a really big game against Cleveland in Week 3 at home, and it was the first game Brissett looked well at quarterback. He’s underpriced on DraftKings this weekend, and this game has a lot of sneaky upside in it. If Jack Doyle misses this game, I like Hilton even more.
My Gut has a Great Feeling About This Back
The Browns had to abandon the run early in Week 4 and it resulted in Duke Johnson receiving most of the work in the backfield. Crowell is averaging 12.8 touches per game, and only 46 yards per game to start the season. This is the perfect game for the Browns to feed Crowell, and I really like him on FanDuel this weekend. With the touchdown weighing more on FanDuel, he has a better chance to exceed value over there. The Jets have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and that’s with shutting down the Dolphins run game in Week 3. I don’t have a lot of stats to back this pick up, but there was a report today that the Browns want to get the running game going against the Jets this weekend.
This Receiving Back Has A Lot of Upside
I love CMAC this weekend, and I hope people continue to fade him. I know he’s only had one big game this season, but I’m willing to look at the numbers inside the numbers with him. He has over five targets in every game, and 22 catches in four games this season. He’s yet to find the end zone, yet he’s averaging 13.4 DK points per game. He’s played 69.65% of the snaps this season, which is eight most among active running backs. The Lions have a really good secondary, and teams have beaten them in the middle of the field. The Lions are allowing an average of 59.4 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season. His price came down $1,100 on DraftKings this weekend, and I think this is an excellent spot to jump on board.
Target Hog Faces Atrocious Pass Defense
The Tampa Bay – New England match-up kicks off Week 5 on Thursday Night, and Vegas has the game projected as the highest-scoring of the week with an over/under of 55. It’s not difficult to figure out what Tampa Bay will try to do with their passing offense, with Mike Evans leading the team and sitting 5th in the league with 10.7 targets per game. This is no surprise, after Evans led the league in targets last season with 173, which he turned into 1,321 receiving yards. Evans also finished second in the league with 12 receiving touchdowns last year, and I’d expect him to use his 6’5” height to pull down a touchdown against New England this Thursday.
Third-year WR Is a Hidden Bargain Against Poor Pass Defense
The Miami offense hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, averaging a league-worst 8.3 points per game and 249 yards per game. This could result in DeVante Parker being an under-owned bargain this week, particularly on FanDuel. Parker is only the 33rd most expensive wide receiver on FanDuel this week, and the 14th most expensive on DraftKings. Meanwhile Parker is 10th in the league with 6 receptions per game, and 11th in the league with 9 targets per game. Tennessee is 28th in the league allowing 274.3 passing yards per game, giving Miami their best chance this season to get their offense on track.
It's Open Season On This Pass Defense
The Thursday Night game between New England and Tampa Bay has the highest over/under of the week at 55 points, by 2.5 points. A large part of the expected scoring is due to the New England pass defense, which has been lit up so far this season to the 324 yards per game and 9.4 yards per attempt. Third-year quarterback Jameis Winston gets the Patriots this week, and it’s worth noting that Winston’s 288 passing yards per game are more than Aaron Rodgers (286.5), Drew Brees (283.8), and Matt Ryan (277.3). Winston’s 8.0 yards per attempt are the highest of his career so far, and his 36 pass attempts per game are also a career high.