DFS Alerts
A Big Red-Zone Threat With Multi-TD Potential
Last year, the Ravens were pretty darn good vs. the TE spot. This year? Not so much. Currently on the year, Baltimore is ranked dead last in terms of DVOA versus tight ends. Jesse James has been relatively quiet since his breakout spot in Week 1, but if the numbers this year (especially last week’s explosion for Marcedes Lewis) are any indicator, James could be in store for a big game. He is near min priced this week and has the potential to be a red-zone monster. The Ravens have given up four touchdowns to TEs so far this season, and with Roethlisberger’s road struggles over the last few seasons and the Ravens’ good secondary and D line potentially causing problems, the QB could rely more heavily on the TE in this matchup (particularly in the red zone). This is a low floor, high ceiling play from a PT/$ perspective and could help you take down a GPP this weekend.
Still Getting this WR at a Discount
After a weird Week 2 in which Fitz only saw six targets, he was back to just getting absolutely peppered with targets in Week 3 (15). He turned those into 13 receptions for 149 yards and a score. And don’t forget that he saw 13 targets in Week 1. At this point, I can only expect that Week 2 was some sort of anomaly. The usage in the red zone has been amazing as well. His eight targets there (three in Week 1, one in Week 2, and four in Week 3) are the most of any player in the league (Dez is second with seven). Furthermore, the matchup against the 49ers is about as good as it gets. Through the first three weeks of the season, they are ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA. Perhaps the best part about Fitz this week though is that his price is still only $6,700 on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings. Even though he smashed last week, we barely saw the price move on FanDuel (and it actually went down on DraftKings) since he played on Monday Night Football. As such, we are still getting a very nice discount on him. He is a lock-and-load for me across the industry in Week 4.
I Might Have to Throw the Ball All Game
Rivers looked awful against the Chiefs last weekend, but I’m willing to look past that tough matchup. Rivers is averaging 37.3 passing attempts per game, which is the sixth most among quarterbacks this season. The advanced stats are concerning for Rivers, and if he struggles in this great matchup, I will likely stop playing him. The Eagles secondary has been bad to start the season, as Eli Manning just threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns against them. Rivers has a lot of weapons to use in the passing game, and he might have to throw the ball even more this weekend with Melvin Gordon banged up. I really like pairing him with Allen, but I don’t mind playing him by himself this weekend.
Perfect Spot to Get Back on Track
I’m hearing a lot of people talk about Tyrod Taylor this week, and I’m hoping that’s going to lower the ownership for McCoy. He draws a great matchup this weekend. Atlanta is ranked 31st in DVOA against the run this season. They’re allowing 4.54 yards per carry, and they’ve given up an average of 73.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. The Bills like to run the football (33 run plays per game), but if they get behind in this game, McCoy will be used in the passing game. McCoy is averaging 43.7 receiving yards per game and is second in receptions among running backs this season. He’s faced some tough defenses over the last two weeks, and this is the perfect matchup for him to get back on track.
Pay Up To Be Contrarian
We are heading into Week 4 of the NFL season, and Julio Jones has yet to find the end zone. He’s fourth in receiving yards, and he’s 11th in targets after three games. He draws a great matchup against E.J. Gaines this weekend, and has one of the best matchup ratings on the board. Gaines has been targeted 6.3 times per games this season, and he’s allowing four catches per game. While these numbers don’t sound too bad, he wasn’t really challenged until last week against the Broncos. It’s just a matter of time before Julio finds the end zone, and this is the perfect spot to jump on him while everyone else isn’t playing him. Julio also has a really nice height advantage on Gaines, and could use that in the red zone.
Soft Coverage Could Lead to a Big Game
I’m always looking for cheap wide receivers with upside, and that’s exactly what we get with Matthews this weekend. He’s averaging 67 yards per game with eight targets and 4.7 receptions. He draws an excellent matchup in Week 4, and I don’t expect many people to notice it. Jonathan Joseph and Jonathan Banks are the two outside guys for the Texans, and they’re both very beatable. Marcus Mariota is no Tom Brady, but we saw the Patriots completely expose this secondary in Week 3. The Titans have had 105 passing snaps this season, and Matthews has played 101 of the 105 passing snaps. I think this game is a sneaky game this weekend, and I will be well overweight on Matthews in this spot.
Rejoice for this WR / CB Matchup
The Raiders pass defense has allowed 11 explosive plays in 2017, and Emmanuel Sanders is a potentially explosive player. They’ll be playing at home with the aid of altitude, and Amerson was already a guy who seems to be having trouble keeping up. Should he find himself lined up against Sanders, he’ll need to do much better than his 132.5 passer rating allowed on a massive 8 targets per game. Sanders has had no trouble creating separation, and I fear the worst in this scenario for Amerson. The Raiders play a lot of man of to man coverage, and I would be pretty shocked if Sanders did not find a way to exploit this matchup for a game-changing play. Upgrade your outlook for, and rejoice for Emmanuel.
As reported by: PlayerProfiler.com
Target this Fruit-Related Cornerback on Sunday
With shutdown specialist Janoris Jenkins on the other side, Eli Apple had better be ready for a ton of targets to flow his way. He has already seen 7.7 targets per game per PlayerProfiler.com, and it hasn’t gone that well for him. In 22 targets, he has allowed 15 completions for 191 yards and 2 scores (per Sports Info Solutions Inc). This bodes well for DeSean Jackson, a speedy veteran destined to avoid the shadow coverage of Jenkins with Mike Evans in the mix. Jameis Winston is not afraid to uncork deep shots, having launched 10 in just 2 games this season. This is a good sign after a season in which he was the third most frequent deep ball passer, per PlayerProfiler.com. Jackson was 11th in air yards in 2016 and should be expected to accumulate a ton again this season with Winston at the helm. Given his likely matchup with Eli Apple, it is more than fair to expect we’ll see some of those air yards in his direction on Sunday. It’s a fantastic matchup against one of the most beatable cornerbacks in the league (by the numbers).
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. Young Wide Receiver to Take Advantage of Poor Secondary This Weekend?
With the Dolphins only playing two games so far this season, it’s easy to overlook the fact that DeVante Parker’s 161 yards is good for the 11th best yards per game of all Wide Receivers this season. The young Miami Wide Receiver has at least nine targets in each of his games this season and is 8th in FanDuel points (10th in DraftKings points) per game this season. He may not get a better matchup this season than the New Orleans pass defense in London this season, and is worth a strong look if you are playing the Thursday or Sunday morning slates this weekend.
This Week's Brissett?
Deshaun Watson has a great matchup this week, against a Titans pass defense that ranks 24th in DVOA and 26th in adjusted sack rate – which will give Watson plenty of time to find the open receiver, and opportunity to add points with his legs if nothing is there. Watson looked genuinely good in Week 3, and the most encouraging thing to me was what he did outside of throwing the ball: carrying out his fakes masterfully, and doing the little things right. In an offense schemed by Bill O’Brien, a quarterback who can do the little things right can open up bigger passing lanes than quarterbacks in a different offense would have – which can elevate the chances for success.
Road Matchup With Weak Pass Defense Could Mean Big Numbers for this QB
The New Orleans pass defense is the 3rd worst in the league this season, giving up 311 passing yards per game, and that’s when they have the comfort of only traveling domestically. We’ve seen what can happen when teams have to go to London with Blake Bortles throwing 4 TDs last Sunday against Baltimore, and I can’t imagine that the New Orleans pass defense will fare better against Jay Cutler across the pond. Cutler is only the 19th most expensive QB on FanDuel and DraftKings this Sunday, despite the Dolphins having a healthy 23.25 projected point total this Sunday. Cutler has at least 220 passing yards and a touchdown in his two games this season, and those averages could be much larger after the matchup with New Orleans in London this weekend.
Is It Time For This Receiver To Break Out?
Last year, the Cowboys had the largest differential in the NFL between slot DVOA (31st) and perimeter DVOA (5th), and their ninth-place ranking in yards allowed per pass attempt this year speaks to what they are able to accomplish in this area. On paper, Cooper Kupp is the best play in the Rams’ passing attack, as — much like we saw last week with Larry Fitzgerald — the way to attack the Cowboys is from the slot. While there is some risk involved after Kupp saw only two targets last week, the best path for success through the air for the Rams will be with Kupp, which should lead to a solid workload – and a solid point-per-dollar day.
Multi-Talented Wide Receiver Could Score Big at Home This Sunday
The top Wide Receiver for the team with the 2nd-highest projected point total this week has the 4th-most FanDuel and DraftKings points this season, and he’s only the 12th-most expensive Wide Receiver on both sites. Tyreek Hill is a bargain this week at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel. Hill has the 7th-most receiving yards on the year, and although Washington Cornerback Josh Norman is a tough matchup, it is worth remembering that Hill can contribute in multiple ways. He led all Wide Receivers with 267 rushing yards last season, and scored 3 TDs on the ground as well.
Low Priced QB With High Projected Team Point Total
The Washington pass defense looked like an easy target last weekend against Oakland, but the Raiders offense laid an egg last week having to travel east for the Sunday night primetime game. This week the Redskins will have to travel to Kansas City for another AFC West matchup, and Alex Smith looks like a bargain at $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. We’ll see if the Redskins defense looks as good in Arrowhead. Smith trails only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in FanDuel points per game among Quarterbacks this season, and the Chiefs offense is tied for the second-highest projected point total this week. Is Smith the QB who passed for 368 and 4 TDs against New England in Week 1? He may not match those numbers every week but he has an excellent chance of reaching value tonight at home against Washington.
Jimmy Graham (ankle), CB Richard Sherman (Achilles), S Earl Thomas (knee), and G Luke Joeckel (knee) didn't practice Wednesday
Seattle has a long injury list to start Week 4. It’s not clear how serious these issues are yet but we’ll get more details when the Seahawks practice Thursday. Graham has been banged up for a couple of weeks but he was able to suit up in Week 3 and had his best performance of the season, hauling in seven catches for 72 yards. He’s got another solid spot this weekend against the Colts, who rank 26th in tight end DVOA and have allowed the sixth-most yards per game to the position (63.3, per FO).
