DFS Alerts
Jordan Matthews (chest) expected to play Sunday
The top Buffalo receiver has been dealing with a chip fracture in his sternum over the past few weeks. He’s remained optimistic he could return for the opener and coach Sean McDermott confirmed Matthews is expected to start in Week 1 against the Jets. Matthews played 66% of his snaps in the slot last season with the Eagles. If the Bills use him in a similar way, he’d have a pretty solid individual matchup with slot corner Buster Skrine, who’s earned a poor grade of 52.2 or below in each of the past six seasons. However, volume will likely be an issue. The Bills are big favorites and they’re going to lean on their running game from the start. Coach Sean McDermott said he was prepared to play LeSean McCoy “every snap” in a Wednesday morning press conference. Although that’s a bit of an exaggeration, it’s clear he’ll push McCoy’s workload to the max and if they get out to an early lead, they’ll avoid passing the ball.
As reported by: Joe Buscaglia Other tagged players: LeSean McCoy
Bucs-Dolphins game rescheduled for Week 11
Due to Hurricane Irma’s expected impact on South Florida, the NFL has decided to postpone this matchup to Week 11 when both teams have a bye week.
As reported by: NFL.com You Need this WR on FanDuel to Play the Stud RBs
Since I want to jam in Bell and DJ at running back in my cash game lineup on FanDuel, I am definitely going to need to pay down for at least two of my wide receivers. And my favorite guy to do that with is Fitz at only $6,400. Fitz and the rest of the Cardinals get a matchup with a Lions defense that ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass last year. In addition, Fitz is likely to see a lot of Lions cornerback Quandre Diggs in the slot, who is the 94th-ranked cornerback according to Pro Football Focus. When DJ isn’t getting the ball in the red zone, Carson Palmer seems to hone in on finding Fitz. In 2016, Fitz saw seven more targets (20) inside the 20 yard line than the next closest Cardinal. The same can be said for inside the 10 yard line (Fitz saw 12 targets; DJ was next with 5). With a team total right at 25, it is likely we see a Cardinal or two find the end zone that isn’t named David Johnson. In my eyes, Larry Fitzgerald is as good a bet as anybody, which is much more important on a site like FanDuel that is only half-point PPR.
Week 1: Pay Up to be Contrarian?
Because there is so much value at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback this weekend, I’m looking to pay up for a stud tight end. On top of that, I expect Zach Ertz to be extremely popular, which should lower the ownership on the most expensive options. When healthy, Reed is one of the best tight ends in football, and he’s looked really good in the preseason. Washington threw the ball 630 times in 2016, the eighth most among NFL teams, and Reed had 14 targets in the red zone, which was 22.2% of the target share for the team. I hope people take the wait-and-see approach with the Redskins, but I’m jumping all over this pass-happy offense.
My Favorite Cheap Running Back in Cash Games
There is obviously a bit of concern with Hyde and, subsequently, the 49ers offense overall this year. With the skill position players they have, it is sure to be difficult for them to move the ball and ultimately generate scoring opportunities. They will definitely be put to the test in Week 1 going up against a Carolina defense ranked 10th in DVOA last year. That being said, it is not all bad news for Hyde. For starters, we are getting him at a very attackable $4,600 price tag on DraftKings. After all sorts of mumbo jumbo was coming out of San Francisco in the offseason regarding Hyde’s role, he now easily sits atop the depth chart with Joe Williams being placed on the IR and Tim Hightower and Kapri Bibbs being released. His only competition for touches is two guys (Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert) who have a total of one NFL carry. Hyde will also get the vaunted “Kyle Shanahan bump” that is so often discussed in our little DFS bubble. Running backs have flourished in Shanahan’s system over the years, so I see no reason why the same won’t happen this year for Hyde. This is especially the case considering the San Francisco coaches have been quick to praise his improvement as a pass-catcher. It is rare that we get a three-down back at this cheap of a price tag. Accordingly, he makes for another core piece of my cash game roster construction due to the volume he should see and the salary relief he offers.
An Under-The-Radar Running Back to Target
This Green Bay/Seattle game has one of the highest totals on the slate, yet no one is talking about Ty Montgomery. With Richard Sherman locking down one side of the field, the Packers will need to attack in the slot and with short passes. I’m really only interested in Montgomery on full-point PPR sites, where he’s a great DFS option. He averaged 6.7 yards per touch and had a 9.1% breakaway run rate in 2016, which was the second-highest mark in the NFL. He also led the league in yards after contact per touch at 2.8. We saw Montgomery get double-digit receptions in two games last season, and we know how high his ceiling is in general. I’m expecting him to be under 5% owned in this tough matchup, but in Week 1, I’m always willing to take a shot on a player against an elite defense.
Consider this Low-Owned QB in a Favorable Game Environment
Quarterback is the one position where I just don’t care about ownership, but that doesn’t mean I’m not looking for an edge. I always like to target games I expect to stay close and competitive, and this weekend, I expect this Washington/Philadelphia matchup to be one of the closest games on the slate. The Washington pass defense was ranked 24th in DVOA in 2016, and they really struggled down the stretch. Over the last five games of the season, Washington allowed over 300 yards passing four times, and in three of those games they surrendered multiple passing touchdowns. With the addition of Alshon Jeffery, I like this Philadelphia passing game a lot more this season. I think a lot of people will look to Zach Ertz this weekend, yet I don’t expect a lot of people to consider Wentz.
An Interesting Pivot at Tight End for Week 1
Remember what I said about the CHI receiving core earlier? Well, Zach Miller is probably the most experienced guy on the squad right now, and in general, a bad or inexperienced QB is a TE’s best friend. One of the spots where Mike Glennon may end up favoring is Miller, and at such cheap price tags across the industry, he has a chance to shatter value. Last year, Miller recorded four touchdowns in only 10 games and also had a couple of double-digit target counts. The addition of Dion Sims will hurt his value a little bit, but with people flocking to Zach Ertz, Miller could be a nice pivot, based on the high implied Vegas total of the game, as well as the fact this ATL team is not great against the TE position. You have all the upside you can hope for at this price. I’m going to be using Miller a lot this week, and because of the prices of both Kendall Wright and Kevin White, you could easily envision a scenario in which all three meet their value.
Looking for a Super Cheap Wide Receiver with Upside?
We all know the Jets roster is gross this year. Like, “eating a salad for dinner” gross. McCown may be old enough to get social security, but let’s not forget that his jaw was chiseled out by the Gods and, more importantly, that he did put up some decent numbers in games for CLE when healthy. The Jets’ receiving core is something that could even make Bill Belichick laugh, but Robby Anderson flashed upside in the chances he got last year. In the second half of the season, he had 40+ yard receptions on four separate occasions, and he logged double-digit target counts twice. Since there isn’t much in terms of WR supply this week for the Jets, we can expect a large portion of targets to go toward Anderson, and if a few of those are deep bombs, we may see him being the top pt/$ WR this week. I understand where the Jets offensive ineptitude could cause some fear, but where there’s fear, there’s a chance for profit (see the gun crisis Danny Devito created in It’s Always Sunny).
Can We Really Play Him in Cash Games in this Matchup?
As you will see in the coming weeks, I am generally a guy who likes to pay down at quarterback on DraftKings. However, only a $7,000 price tag for Rodgers on DraftKings has me locking him into my cash game lineup despite a matchup against the Seahawks. While the Seattle defense ranked fifth in DVOA last year, they were only 13th against the pass. That is obviously still respectable, but it is not something I will go out of my way to avoid for one of the best quarterbacks in the league getting a steep discount. Rodgers had the most passing touchdowns in the league in 2016 (40), and it should come as no surprise considering how much they rely on him in the red zone. When inside the 20 yard line, he threw a remarkable 105 passes (second to only Drew Brees’ 107 attempts). The end result? Only 31 touchdowns with no interceptions. Not too shabby I’d say. And the script doesn’t change much on the rest of the field either. Green Bay attempted a pass on almost 65% of its plays in 2016, which was the second highest percentage in the league. Remember folks, this team has a converted wide receiver as its number one running back! There will be much discussion this week about paying up at quarterback on DraftKings, and not to mention, taking a quarterback in cash games against a Seattle defense. To those people I have one number to give them: 27. That is the number of points Vegas expects the Packers to score this week, which just so happens to be the third highest on the main slate. Where do you think those points are going to come from?
This Guy is My Priority Spend in Week 1 Cash Games
We have the same decision in Week 1 as we did for many of the weeks in 2016: do we play Bell and DJ in the same lineup? While it is certainly viable (and strangely enough, more so on FanDuel for me than DraftKings, which was the opposite last year), it is not exactly a necessity either. If you are choosing between the two for your cash games, I have a slight lean towards Bell over DJ. While $9,800 (DraftKings) and $9,300 (FanDuel) may seem like steep price tags to pay at first glance, it is easy to forget that Bell closed out the regular season last year all the way up to $10,400 (DraftKings) and $10,000 (FanDuel). So these price tags for Bell in Week 1 look mighty appealing to me. Bell checks off all of the boxes we are looking for when paying up at running back. For starters, he is going to see an insane amount of touches. Per JM’s NFL Edge, Bell played an absurd 93% of the snaps in which he was healthy last year. That resulted in him averaging approximately 24 touches per game. We also know by now that Bell is heavily involved in the passing game, which is the next thing I am looking for out of my expensive running backs. In 2016, he averaged 7+ targets. The last thing I want to ensure is that he will be getting the lion’s share of the goal line work. Considering he basically never leaves the field, it is safe to say we should not be too worried about that. And while Cleveland arguably made some strides in the offseason in regards to their roster, this is largely still the same team that ranked 27th in DVOA versus the run in 2016 and 29th versus the pass. All of this makes Bell my priority spend in cash games in Week 1.
Big Upside And Salary Relief At The QB Position
Due to the high-scoring nature of the 2016 Atlanta Falcons’ offense, their defense faced the most pass attempts in the NFL (and allowed the fifth most passing yards and passing touchdowns), all while finishing 26th in offensive plays per game and 22nd in pass play percentage. This year, Steve Sarkisian plans to both speed up the pace and increase passing volume, which spells trouble for a middling Chicago Bears pass defense (17th in DVOA against the pass in 2016). While we will see high ownership this week on Kendall Wright and likely Kevin White as well, very few people are paying attention to the man who will need to have a good game in order for those two to succeed. While not a big talent, Glennon can make all the throws when he has a clean pocket, and he is taking on a Falcons squad that ranked 16th in sacks in 2016, and he should be able to stand tall behind the fifth highest-rated offensive line in football (Pro Football Focus). I expect Glennon to top 250 yards with a pair of touchdowns as his floor, and it won’t surprise me if we see 300+ and three scores this week, making him a great way to save salary at the quarterback position.
A Lot Of Targets Are Missing On This Offense
The Bears are missing an absolutely absurd 252 targets from last year’s squad, and while they are fundamentally a run-heavy offense, they are taking on a Falcons squad that scores a lot of points, and that consequently saw the most pass attempts in the NFL last year (along with the fifth most passing yards and touchdowns). This was in spite of the Falcons ranking 26th in plays per game and 22nd in pass play percentage! This year under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, the Falcons plan to both speed up the pace and pass more often. This should mean points for the Falcons’ offense against a lackluster Bears defense, and should mean plenty of pass attempts for the Bears, and targets to spare for Wright. Wright is far cheaper than he should be as a near-lock for eight to ten targets.
An Efficient WR gets a Strong CB Matchup
Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are likely to see coverage snaps against Doug Baldwin this weekend, which is a concern if you are a Packers fan. Randall allowed a 114.7 QB rating on passes into his coverage last season and sports the 10th lowest CB rating in the RotoGrinders WR vs. CB matchup chart this week. Rollins was even worse with a 121.6 rating allowed (6th worst CB rating on this slate). Baldwin was efficient in 2016, delivering 2.03 PPR fantasy points per target and a 19.8 PlayerProfiler.com production premium (14th best on this slate). Baldwin creates tremendous separation at target and should have no problem getting open no matter who covers him. Given that the WR/CB matchup is favorable, we should be viewing Doug Baldwin as a top quality asset in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders WR vs. CB Matchup Chart
This WR/CB Matchup has Lid Lifting Potential in Week 1
Martavis Bryant should see a mix of primary coverage that includes Jason McCourty and Briean Boddy-Calhoun. I have a few reasons to be optimistic about Bryant if it is McCourty who has his assignment most often: 1) As a Titan in 2016, McCourty was targeted more often on a per game basis than anyone else on this slate (according to PlayerProfiler.com CB stats, located in the RotoGrinders Premium WR vs. CB chart for Week 1). 2) While Gregg Williams defensive schemes are very complex, they are also aggressive. If the Steelers offensive line holds up well and Ben exhibits his usual escape ability when the pressure comes, I expect coverage to be severely taxed by either Bell underneath on the check down or Bryant over the top. Low rated S Derrick Kindred (per Pro Football Focus) and rookie Jabrill Peppers are currently slated to start at safety. One false step by a poor/inexperienced safety could leave McCourty one on one with Martavis and his 95th percentile Height Adjusted Speed Score. Bryant has a 6 inch height advantage on McCourty as well. All of this spells an uptick in the potential for Bryant to reach his ceiling via the deep ball, and makes him a compelling option in GPPs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders WR vs. CB Matchup Chart