DFS Alerts
This WR is "Sensitive", and Gets a CB Matchup Downgrade
Dez Bryant is set to see coverage from a murderers’ row of top flight CBs this season. This includes his matchup in Week 1, which should entail plenty of Janoris Jenkins in his life. Scott Barrett of PFF has shown us that Dez Bryant has been very “CB sensitive” in the past. That does not mean we won’t ever have the chance to play Dez, but it does mean he’ll be far from the path of least resistance in Week 1. Jenkins is the highest-rated cornerback this week based on the Rotogrinders WR vs. CB Chart for Week 1 (75.24). He ranked near the top of the league in catch rate allowed (46.4%), PPR points per snap allowed (.56), and QB Rating Allowed (46.2) in 2016. Dez does carry a height advantage over Jenkins, and perhaps he can still do Dez-like things in the end-zone. With that being said, I can imagine a more likely scenario than a historically “CB sensitive” WR exploding against the highest rated CB in our matchup tool. Let’s agree to downgrade Dez for the week, and let the chips fall where they may.
As reported by: Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus
Lock and Load this Running Back in Your Cash Game Lineups
The big debate this week is whether to play David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell at running back. Personally, I’m a proponent of team “jam em in.” In other words, I will be starting my cash game lineups with both of the stud running backs. Johnson is one of the few true workhorse running backs left in football and he may be the most talented. He is game flow independent, as the Cardinals hand him the rock when they are ahead and pepper him with targets when they are playing from behind. The Lions were ranked 29th in pass DVOA against running backs last season, so even if the Cardinals can’t get anything going on the ground, Johnson will still get his through the air. This game is being played on the fast track in Detroit, which only boosts his fantasy appeal. With such a high floor and a high ceiling, Johnson is not a player I want to fade in cash games.
This Quarterback is Healthy, Motivated, and Wants Revenge for his Teammate
The one and only knock on Russell Wilson this week is his lack of success against Dom Capers’ defenses. That doesn’t scare me off in the slightest. This game should be full of fantasy goodness and the Seahawks will need to score a lot of points to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Wilson was banged up for most of last season, which limited his mobility, but he is fully healthy this year and is coming off of a very strong preseason. Wilson has plenty of weapons to work with offensively and his ability to make plays with his legs allows you to play him naked (not pairing him with a wideout) if you so choose. This is one of the few games this season where the Seahawks won’t be able to rely on their defense and running game. Wilson’s rushing ability gives him a high floor and his touchdown upside gives him a high ceiling.
Can You Afford to Fade this Tight End?
The first guy I am plugging into my cash game lineup for Week 1 is Ertz. Not only is he my favorite value play at the tight end position, but he very well might be the best source of salary relief on the entire slate. He is quite simply just way too underpriced on DraftKings at only $3,600, and you are getting a nice discount on FanDuel as well at $5,900. With Jordan Matthews no longer in town and Alshon Jeffery likely seeing shadow coverage from Josh Norman, Ertz is set up to see a ton of targets on Sunday. Furthermore, the Redskins were absolutely dreadful against tight ends in 2016, ranking 25th against the position in DVOA. The end result was the Redskins giving up the third most DraftKings points to tight ends last year and the fifth most FanDuel points. Ertz may not come with the name recognition of a Gronk, Olsen, Kelce, or Graham, but he is right on their level this week when it comes to expected production. And did I mention how much salary he will save you? Ertz should be a necessity in your cash games this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott will play this Sunday, possibly serve six-game suspension beginning in Week 2
Arbitrator Harold Henderson upheld the suspension Tuesday evening but the NFL will let Elliott play in Week 1 against the Giants as the running back seeks a restraining order. If he’s successful, he may play the entire season. Should he fail to acquire one, he’ll miss six games beginning in Week 2. The ruling on the restraining order will be made by 5 pm Friday. Elliott will have a tough matchup in Week 1 as the Giants have one of the best lines in the league – Olivier Vernon, Jean Pierre-Paul, and Damon Harrison all received high grades from Pro Football Focus in 2016, between 85.3 and 88.1 – and Landon Collins ranked third in run defense (94.8). Fortunately for the running back, the linebackers aren’t as strong. Considering the Giants have one of the best secondaries in the game and Dallas likes to control the clock, they should keep feeding Elliott touches all night, so volume shouldn’t be an issue. Dallas is currently favored by four points at home.
As reported by: ESPN
Jaron Brown listed ahead of John Brown on Cardinals depth chart
There’s been some hype surrounding John heading into the 2017 season. Not only was he expected to start alongside Larry Fitzgerald, but there was talk of him developing into the primary receiver as Fitz enters his 14th season. Unfortunately, a quad issue has given him a bit of trouble this summer and it appears he’s going to be competing for snaps and looks with Jaron. Neither guy is particularly exciting as Carson Palmer will primarily target Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson in the passing game this Sunday. Plus, J.J. Nelson, who’s listed on the second-team with John, should get some work.
As reported by: Mike Jurecki Other tagged players: John Brown Thomas Rawls and Paul Richardson listed as starters on Seahawks depth chart
Eddy Lacy is listed with the second-team along with Chris Carson. It’ll be a tough backfield to project to start the season and to make matters more complicated, Rawls is dealing with an ankle injury that may prevent him from playing in the season opener. There’s been nothing but high praise for Carson this summer, so Rawls’ absence won’t place Lacy in a workhorse type role. On top of Carson’s presence, C.J. Prosise, who’s listed with the third-team, is expected to pick up work in the passing game It’s not a very appealing backfield to target in fantasy unless one of the four backs breaks away from the rest of the group. Out wide, Richardson is listed ahead of Tyler Lockett, who’s returning from a leg injury and missed the entire preseason. Lockett is ready for Week 1, but it’s possible he sees limited snaps, which could provide Richardson a solid volume of targets. It helps that Jermaine Kearse is now with the Jets.
As reported by: Bob Condotta Other tagged players: Paul Richardson Jeremy Kerley signs with Jets
The veteran receiver signed a one-year deal with New York Tuesday afternoon. Kerley led the league in targets out of the slot last season (102) and turned them into 60 receptions for 627 yards and three scores. He added four catches for 40 yards when lined up on the outside. He could become a safety valve for Josh McCown and could potentially pick up a decent volume of short, high-percentage targets. Unfortunately for Robby Anderson, Kerley’s addition will put a further dent into his workload. Although Kerley could jump into a relatively large role right away, he isn’t going to be a very attractive fantasy asset in a poor offensive unit.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Robbie Chosen, Jermaine Kearse Bucs-Dolphins game will not be played in Miami this week
We don’t know when or where this game will be played but we do know it won’t take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami this Sunday. Ian Rapoport reports the two options on the table are to move this matchup to a neutral site or potentially reschedule it for later this season when the two teams have a mutual bye week. The game total dropped rapidly between Monday and Tuesday – from 45.5 to 41.5 – due to the weather concerns stemming from Hurricane Irma. If the game is played this week at a neutral site, that line could move back up and the spread will likely go in Tampa Bay’s favor. Of course, no players from these teams will be available in fantasy if the game is rescheduled. The NFL is reportedly trying to reach a decision tonight, according to Adam Schefter, so we should know the status ahead of Thursday’s lock.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport An Intriguing GPP Wideout Option for Week 1
Look, the Bears are going to throw at least some passes versus Atlanta. With that high implied total Vegas is putting out there, we know it’s likely Chicago will be playing from behind. Guess what? Glennon is going to have to attempt some passes and needs someone to target, and I think White is going to be that guy. We need to remember he was the seventh overall pick in 2015, and if it wasn’t for his injury, he could have been a legit number one receiver at this point. In the weeks he actually did play last year, his targets were as follows: 7, 6, 14, 9. Those are pretty good amounts, especially with a better receiving core at the QB’s disposal back then. People are only going to see the 19 catches and not the 35 targets in that four-game span, which is a major mistake. This is a situation in which DFSers are going to be flocking over to Wright, but White’s target-per-dollar output is going to be massive in this matchup. He’s got the most untapped talent of this weak WR group, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ends up with double-digit targets and turns a lot of them into catches against this overrated ATL defense. Don’t get me wrong, I like Wright too, and there’s a decent chance that I am going to have a lot of lineups with both players in them, considering that they are so cheap that it allows me to do some great stuff in other spots. But, I honestly think that White’s ceiling and floor are higher than Wright’s, even on a pt/$ basis, and we know he’s going to come in at lower ownership. White is my favorite GPP play on the board, and there’s a reasonable chance I’m going to be using him a bit in cash too this week.
Finding Week 1 Value at Tight End
TE is sparse in the lower tier for Week 1. We can obviously expect a lot of ownership to fly over to Zach Ertz in a plus matchup. I am not telling you to fade Ertz, considering he’s a fantastic play this week. What I’m doing is giving you an option if you choose to fade him. Jermaine Gresham is a guy that started getting some love from Carson Palmer in the second half last season, securing 26 receptions for 285 yards and two TDs. In Week 1 he gets a matchup against a Lions team that is notoriously horrid against the TE spot. This could be a matchup similar to the one Gresham faced last season, when he had 10 targets against ATL, and you could get that at a highly appealing price tag. This is by no means a safe play and is more suited for GPPs. If you’re fading Ertz, I suggest you do it for a cheaper, lower-owned pivot like Gresham, who could end up with a few extra points and help you gain an edge on your competition..
Golden Tate is expected to return punts for Lions
Tate was listed as the number one punt returner on Detroit’s depth chart Tuesday, although it’s techincally unofficial. He hasn’t returned one since 2015 and he’s never taken one to this house, but he was ninth in yards per punt return in 2013 (11.5) with a long of 71 yards. Although unlikely, the possibility of a return touchdown is a slight bump to his fantasy outlook. On the offensive side of things, Tate should benefit from Anquan Boldin’s departure, as the veteran soaked up red zone work. Tate has accumulated at least 90 targets in all three seasons in Detroit. Despite a slow start to 2016, he finised as the WR17 in PPR season-long scoring. This week, he’ll have a tough matchup with the Cardinals and Tyrann Mathieu in the slot. He should still pick up plenty of high-percentage looks, which makes him better suited for full PPR sites. Currently, the Lions have an implied total of 23.25 points as home underdogs (+1.5).
As reported by: Detroit Free Press Underowned DFS Goodness at Running Back for Week 1
People seem to have a lot of worries about Jordan Howard playing on a terrible team, but where there’s crap in the soil, something beautiful can grow. The Bears get a matchup against a Falcons team that can put up points at high rate. People are expecting this game to be a blowout (which is evident by most of the bets coming in of the ATL side of the ball in Vegas), but the sharp money is coming in on the Bears covering the spread (which is evident by the reverse line movement toward the Bears). This game is going to be closer than people think, and while the Falcons are bad against both the pass and the rush, they are much worse against the rush. Howard is drawing a matchup against a Falcons team that was 28th in DVOA against the run last season, a team that gave up targets to the running back position at nearly the highest rate in the league. Howard had 50 targets last year in a not-entirely-complete season, and don’t forget Jeremy Langford was also in the mix early on. If we can expect this Week 1 game to stay close, Howard should get a large amount of work on the ground, which he can capitalize on with his 5.2 YPC last year, and if the game gets a little out of hand, you can bet on him getting a decent number of targets. In either situation, his floor and ceiling should be more than high enough to justify his price, and he should come in at low ownership due to people’s hatred of the Bears offense.
Is This Chalky Running Back Worth Investing In?
Let’s be honest here: At this price tag, he is going to be majorly chalky, but according to Charlie Day, eating chalk helps prevent heartburn. You better believe that if you are fading Christian McCaffrey, you may end up with some heartburn. If he checks in at around 40% projected ownership, I may have a different view strictly from a game theory perspective, but as of right now I’ll be rolling with him. McCaffrey is clearly a special talent and has an incredible ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (hello, full point PPR on DK). Newton has never really been a guy that throws the ball to his running back, but if you look at things situationally, it makes sense. He has the ability to break off a run at any given point and go for huge yards, but last year he got knocked harder than the door of a hearing-impaired person with no door bell. Add in that Stewart is a lackluster RB when it comes to catching the ball out of the backfield, and you have entirely different situation set up for this offense. Instead of running in a lot of situations, Cam is going to be dumping the ball off in droves. In any given situation, McCaffrey can break these off for huge gains, making him a high floor and high ceiling option for your lineups.
Tyrod Taylor (concussion) on track to play Sunday
Field Yates reports Taylor has passed the concussion protocol and is expected to start this weekend against the Jets. As 7.5-point favorites, the Bills are expected to play with a lead most of the game. They’ll likely give LeSean McCoy as much work as possible, which means Taylor won’t be a particularly appealing target in Week 1. He currently projects as our QB18 on FanDuel and DraftKings with plenty of similarly-priced or cheaper options ahead of him in our model.
As reported by: Field Yates