DFS Alerts
C.J. Prosise doubtful to play for Seattle this week
Sources have told the media that Prosise is unlikely to play this week – the hope is that he’ll be available the following week should the team beat Atlanta. It’s Thomas Rawls show for now coming off a big game against a vulnerable Falcons run defense. He’s a good pivot off the chalk options of Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott.
As reported by: Adam Caplan on Twitter Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls
Chiefs DST has scored at least ten points in ten of last 12 games
New England’s DST is going to get a lot of attention this week since they’re hosting Brock Osweiler and the Texans, who have an implied team total of 14.5 points. The low total immediately jumps out as it’s a full touchdown lower than the next team, Pittsburgh. However, should Houston meet expectations, it would earn New England’s defense just one point. They’ll need sacks, turnovers, and maybe a touchdown to be the top defense of the week. While they’ve done well in the first two categories, averaging 2.3 sacks and 1.4 turnovers over their past 12 games, they haven’t scored a single touchdown during that stretch (or any all season, for that matter). Even though defensive touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, some DST’s have displayed an innate ability to score, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, who have scored six over their past 12 games (and eight overall). Of course, Tyreek Hill has helped in this matter, he’s scored three return touchdowns. Even without those included, though, Kansas City’s DST leads the league in non-return touchdowns. They’ll host Pittsburgh this weekend and their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, had horrendous home/away splits this year. Ben averaged roughly half the fantasy points on the road (16.3) than at home (31.2). He also averaged 1.0 interceptions per road game and, most notably, threw roughly one third fewer touchdowns when away (1.1 vs. 3.3). Surprisingly, Brock Osweiler threw fewer interceptions on the road (0.5) than in Houston (1.71). When comparing the two defensive options, there are other factors to consider, like the battle in the trenches. This favors New England, slightly. Their defensive line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate and Houston’s offensive line ranks 12th. Kansas City’s DL was 27th and Pittsburgh’s OL was 4th. Another thing to consider is New England’s defense ranks 23rd in pass DVOA and 4th in rush DVOA. Lamar Miller and the Texans’ rushing attack is better than their passing offense, which means the Patriots’ strengths and weaknesses align well with their opponent. Kansas City ranks 7th in pass DVOA, a great sign they can take advantage of Roethlisberger’s poor road splits, but they’re 26th in rush DVOA. That means Pittsburgh could simply go run-heavy with Le’Veon Bell and could find a lot of success. This could limit the Cheifs’ DST’s ability to force sacks, turnovers, and in turn, touchdowns. Still, they’ve demonstrated an incredible consistency over the past few months – they had multiple sacks and/or turnovers in 11 of last 12 while averaging 1.9 per game in both categories – and Tyreek Hill is always a threat to take one to the house. We’re projecting New England’s ownership at 25% on DraftKings and Kansas City’s at 15% but KC has a slight edge in our points-per-dollar projection (2.81 vs. 2.68) as they cost $600 less. While either defense will be a solid option, it could be advantageous to take the cheaper one at a lower ownership, especially in tournaments as they’ll definitely have a higher touchdown expectation.
Other tagged players: New England Patriots, Ben Roethlisberger, Brock Osweiler
Malcolm Mitchell limited in Wednesday's practice
Mitchell is still dealing with a knee injury that held him out of their season finale. He should be considered questionable for New England’s divisional matchup with Houston. Fellow receiver Danny Amendola practiced in full today and he’s all set to return from a four-game absence. If Mitchell can play, he could lose a bit of work to Amendola. Michael Floyd played well in place of Mitchell in Week 17 and he could’ve earned some snaps and targets too. Overall, New England would have five healthy receivers, all of whom are expected to see the field, plus tight end Martellus Bennett and the running backs. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game and Houston is much stronger defending the pass than the rush. Game flow is also a concern as the Patriots are favored by 16 points. Mitchell projects as the WR2 on the team behind Julian Edelman and narrowly ahead of Chris Hogan; he’s only a tournament play this weekend, should he suit up.
As reported by: Mike Reiss DeAndre Hopkins limited in Wednesday's practice
He appeared on the injury report with a knee injury, which must have happened during their wild card game last week. He’s fully expected to play this weekend though. Hopkins will have a tough matchup with Malcolm Butler, who has the highest PFF grade among all cornerbacks in the playoffs (91.1). Over the past four weeks he’s averaged 10.75 targets and even had 17 in Week 15. Last week against the Raiders, he posted a 5/67/1 line on nine looks. It’s certainly possible game flow helps him this week with the Texans currently set as 16-point underdogs, but it will still be a tough spot and he’ll still have Brock Osweiler throwing to him. He currently projects as our WR7.
As reported by: Houston Chronicle Update: Quinten Rollins returned to practice Wednesday
Rollins is still in the concussion protocol but he was able to get some on-field work in at practice today. This doesn’t mean he’ll be able to play Sunday, although it’s undoubtedly a positive sign. His presence would provide a nice boost to the banged up Packers secondary and be a downgrade for Dallas’ passing game.
As reported by: ESPN Ladarius Green (concussion) held out of practice Wednesday
Things are not looking good for Green. After returning to practice for a couple of days last week, he was held out on Friday and seems to have stalled in the protocol process. He wasn’t able to return to practice today and it appears that he’s on the doubtful side for Sunday. If he misses, Jesse James would draw another start. Although he was in play last week due to the limited selection at the position, there are plenty of better tight ends available in the divisional round. Ben Roethlisberger will continue to prioritize Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Eli Rogers in the passing game.
As reported by: Ed Bouchette Spencer Ware will practice Wednesday
Ware injured his ribs in Week 16 and was subsequently held out of their Week 17 finale. Coach Andy Reid emphasized that Ware could have come back in the game in Week 16, but the Chiefs wanted to be cautious with their starting running back. Based on that information, it seems like Ware should be able to return to his full workload. Ware hasn’t topped 100 total yards in his past eight games; he averaged 73.9 over that stretch and scored two total touchdowns. On the season, he’s scored just five times. While he’s averaged 2.4 receptions per game this year, Charcandrick West performed really well as a receiver last week, posting a 5/58/2 receiving line. It’s possible West could pick up some extra passing down work from Ware this week. Even if he loses a some of those snaps, he’ll remain the featured back against a Pittsburgh rushing defense that was very strong in the second half of the season. Out of the six running backs who had at least 12 carries against them over the past eight games, only one averaged more than 2.7 yards per carry. That was Isaiah Crowell, who rushed for 152 yards on 19 attempts. The rest of the list, which includes LeSean McCoy (12 carries for 27 yards) and Jay Ajayi (16 carries for 33 yards), were all held to 57 total rushing yards or less. Of course, there isn’t a ton of depth at the position in fantasy, but it’s a really tough spot to target. Even though Ware is a safe bet for 15-20 touches, it may be worth paying up this week.
As reported by: BJ Kissel Other tagged players: Charcandrick West Jordy Nelson and Quinten Rollins will work with rehab group Wednesday
In other words, they won’t be practicing. Nelson is going to be with the group until at least Friday and given the severity of his rib injury, it seems unlikely he’ll be able to play Sunday. Even if he’s physically capable of doing so, taking another major hit could cause serious complications. Mike McCarthy said he’ll have to practice Saturday in order to play this weekend, so we’ll hopefully know his status prior to lock. Cornerback Quinten Rollins is still dealing with a neck injury and concussion. Beat writer Rob Demovsky reported Rollins “has taken the next step,” which is a positive sign. He should be considered questionable for their matchup with the Cowboys. His absence would be a nice boost to Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, and the rest of the passing game. On the season, the banged up Packers pass defense has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
As reported by: Green Bay Packers Other tagged players: Dak Prescott Alex Smith averaged 21.54 fantasy points as a home favorite this season
Smith is not normally a popular quarterback in fantasy football. After all, he hasn’t thrown three touchdowns in a game since Week 1 of the 2015 season and only tossed two touchdowns in four of his 15 games this year. However, on a small slate it’s worth considering all possible options in an effort to differentiate lineups, especially in tournaments. After opening as a pick’em, the Steelers-Chiefs game, which will be played in Kansas City, currently has a 1.5-point spread favoring Smith’s side. His 21.54 fpts per game across a seven game sample is 5.63 points higher than his 15.91 average over the eight games outside the split. The typically conservative Smith seems to be a little more aggressive at home; although he attempts a nearly identical number of passes (32.29 in split vs. 32.88 out of split), his yards per attempt increases by 0.7 and he throws nearly double the interceptions (0.71 vs. 0.38). As a result of this style of play, he also throws more touchdowns (1.14 vs. 0.88) and more passing yards (251 vs. 219.5). Smith demonstrated an enhanced ability to run the football at home, which actually provided the largest boost to his fantasy production. On an extra 0.7 carries per game, he more than doubled his yardage (12.71 vs. 5.62) and, most notably, rushed for 0.57 touchdowns, whereas he scored 0.12 times per game out of the split. He’s currently on a bit of a streak, he rushed for a touchdown in each of the last three weeks to end the regular season. Of course, they were without their starting running back, Spencer Ware, for Week 17 and a portion of Week 16’s game. Given that quarterback rushing touchdowns are tough to predict and inconsistent, it’s important to point out that should we take away the value of the increase in rushing scores, which equates to 2.7 fantasy points, Smith would still average 18.84 fantasy points per game when favored at home. Based on his pricing and our current projections for the other quarterbacks available, that number would make him the best points-per-dollar quarterback on both DraftKings (3.49 pt/$) and FanDuel (2.77). His matchup this week won’t be the easiest, Pittsburgh ranks 12th in pass DVOA and they allowed the eight-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, which means he’s certainly a risky play. Still, by rostering Smith one would free up extra salary space and, from a game theory perspective, be able to diversify their lineup – not only would they have a low-owned quarterback, but they could afford a different (and better) assortment of skill players that others could not. Smith is definitely an interesting tournament option this weekend.
As reported by: Bryan Pauquette Austin Hooper "trending in right direction for Saturday"
Hooper is dealing with a sprained MCL but he’s reportedly doing well in practice and should be able to play this weekend. He has a tough matchup with the Seahawks, who allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. The rookie only averaged 1.9 targets per game, so he isn’t a great option to begin with. As of now, we’re projecting him as our TE11 on the four-game slate this weekend.
As reported by: Adam Caplan Pete Carroll: C.J. Prosise will practice Tuesday, needs to "be going full speed this week" to play Saturday
Should Prosise (shoulder) make his return this weekend, he could take over most of the passing down work. Thomas Rawls, who had an excellent game against Detroit in the wild card round would retain his featured role, meaning he should lead the backfield in carries. Prosise could potentially be in play on DraftKings as Atlanta allowed the most receptions per game to running backs this season (6.81), the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.38), and second-most receiving yards (54.38). When it came to defending running backs on the ground, they were much better; they allowed RBs to gain 82.5 rushing yards per game, which is the 11th-fewest in the league and just 12 yards above Arizona’s league-leading 70.0 ypg. Given the matchup, Prosise’s situation is definitely worth monitoring. Luckily Seattle plays the first game this weekend, so we’ll know his status prior to lock.
As reported by: Curtis Crabtree Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne expected to play Sunday
Claiborne was playing well prior to injuring his groin in Week 8, earning an 82.8 grade from Pro Football Focus through the first seven weeks. His return is bad news for either Jordy Nelson or Geronimo Allison, depending on whether Nelson (ribs) can get on the field. Claiborne rarely moves from the left corner position (95% of his snaps), which is the same side Nelson lines up on for roughly half of his routes. Presumably, Allison would see a similar number should he replace Nelson in three-wide sets. Randall Cobb will also have a difficult matchup with Orlando Scandrick, who was one of the best slot corners in the game this season. This means, relatively speaking, Davante Adams could have the easiest individual matchup as he’s expected to see RCB Brandon Carr quite a bit, although Carr graded as an above-average cornerback this year. As a team, Dallas was efficient defending receivers throughout the year. Despite allowing the sixth-most targets to wide receivers per game (22.75), opposing receivers combined for the 11th-fewest FanDuel points (28.59 FD points; 36.06 DraftKings points, which was 15th-fewest by DK scoring). They did, however, allow the most fantasy points to the tight end position (14.29 FD points; 18.23 DK points). Opposing tight ends averaged 7.5 receptions, 75.4 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns, good for most, second-most, and seventh-most, respectively. Jared Cook has had at least eight targets in three of his last four games and should be heavily involved again in this favorable matchup, especially if Nelson is ruled out. With such a great spot, Cook projects as our TE3 this weekend in terms of raw points and he’s our top points-per-dollar play at the position on DraftKings by a good margin.
As reported by: Brandon George Other tagged players: Jared Cook, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison Ladarius Green still in concussion protocol
The Steelers TE continues to struggle recovering from a concussion as he is still in the league protocol. He did practice two days last week but was unable to get onto the field on Sunday. He has a chance to play this week but right now that is uncertain. It’d be a tough match up against the Chiefs regardless as they are routinely one of the top teams in the league at covering the TE, but he does have significant upside if he does play. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and update it if anything changes.
As reported by: Ed Bouchette on Twitter Dak Prescott averaged 27.75 fantasy points per game when favored by at least 4.0 points at home
Prescott was at his best in that scenario, which occurred six times this season. With Week 17 excluded, he averaged 20.56 fantasy points outside of that split. Most notably, in the split, he had a 72.1% completion percentage, threw 1.67 touchdowns per game (0.17 interceptions), and ran for 0.67 scores. As it turns out, the Cowboys currently find themselves as 4.5-point favorites in Dallas this weekend. Their opponent, Green Bay, happens to be one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most fpts (18.52) to quarterbacks per game this season, the fifth-most touchdowns (1.88), and the most passing yards (287.76). Back in Week 6, Dak threw for 247 yards and three scores on them. Another great sign: Vegas is expecting a shootout, the game total is currently set at 52 points, beating out the Seattle-Atlanta game by 0.5 points for the highest on the board. It’s actually just the second time all season the typically slow-paced Cowboys are playing a game at home with an over/under above 46.5 points. That is to say there is a notable increase in expected scoring than there was for five of the six games in the split mentioned earlier, in which he averaged 27.75 fpts. With so many great quarterbacks on the slate this weekend, Dak could sneak by with less ownership than he warrants, but it’s a great situation to target.
As reported by: Bryan Pauquette Update: Jordy Nelson suffered two fractured ribs Sunday
This comes from Ian Rapoport, who added it “will take an incredible effort to play.” It’s definitely not looking good for Nelson and we probably won’t know more until at least Friday. If he’s ultimately unable to go, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb would be the primary wide receivers with Geronimo Allison serving as the third option. Jared Cook, who has received at least eight targets in three of their last four games and posted a 5/48/0 line Sunday night, would continue to have good usage.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport