DFS Alerts

Malcolm Mitchell will NOT play Saturday

Not only is he dealing with a knee injury, but they have four other (healthy) receivers now that Danny Amendola has returned. New England will roll with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Michael Floyd along with Amendola. Edelman is by far the safest option, he’s averaged 12.6 targets over the last seven games. Hogan and Floyd are in play for tournaments, as both have big play ability. Floyd posted a 3/36/1 line in place of Mitchell in Week 17 while playing 73% of the offensive snaps. Amendola’s return complicates things a bit but Floyd displayed some serious blocking ability last week that could earn him the number three role today.

Antonio Brown has a tough matchup Sunday

It’s easy to look at Brown’s game log and get excited about his upcoming matchup with the Chiefs; he scored two touchdowns in the first quarter against them in their last meeting. Pittsburgh was up by 22 points after the first frame and essentially didn’t need him the rest of the way as their defense didn’t allow the Chiefs to score until the fourth. Plenty of things are different this time around; first, it’s a road game – Ben Roethlisberger threw 1.1 scores per game outside of Pittsburgh and 3.3 per home game – and second, Brown, assuming he can avoid Marcus Peters’ shadow, is going to need to go through cornerback Terrance Mitchell.

Even though Mitchell, who didn’t play against the Steelers last time, has only been active for seven games this season, he’s already made a name for himself. As SB Nation’s Seth Keysor pointed out (link below), it began when Mitchell had a game-winning pass breakup against the Raiders in Week 14. He was targeted nine times in that contest but only allowed four receptions for 24 yards. On the season, he’s only allowed 12 completions for 106 yards on 31 targets, despite playing top offenses such as Atlanta and San Diego. It’s a small sample size, he’s covered the fewest routes of any starting corner in the playoffs, but he has earned an excellent 81.5 PFF grade so far, plus he’s allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per route defended (0.21). For what it’s worth, that’s a lower rate than their best corner, Marcus Peters (83.6 grade, 0.26 pts/rt). There’s been some debate over whether Peters will follow Brown around the field, but it seems doubtful. He plays on the left side 92% of the time and the other 8% is spent in the slot. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton won’t say for sure, but said it will be a “philosophical decision” and he hasn’t used a Peters shadow in the two years they’ve worked together. Brown runs 45% of his routes on Mitchell’s side and 40% of them on Peters’. No matter which side Brown is on, he’ll be in a tough spot. Peters has faced seven of the top ten receivers (in terms of yards) this season and didn’t allow a touchdown to any of them. Williams hasn’t allowed a pass to any receiver to go for more than 26 yards, and the majority have been under 10 yards. We’re currently projecting Antonio Brown as our WR1, but you’ll have to pay up to get him. While Brown is one of the best in the game at his position, with the decent depth available at WR this week and shortage of great value options at running back, it may make sense to pay up at RB and save a little at WR.

Report: "increasing signs" C.J. Prosise (shoulder) will play Saturday, remains game-time decision

This comes from beat writer Gregg Bell, who is “sensing the rookie” will suit up tomorrow. It would be great timing as one of Atlanta’s largest defensive weaknesses is defending running backs in the passing game, which is where Prosise excels. Atlanta has allowed the most targets (8.81), most receptions (6.81), second-most receiving yards (54.38) and most receiving touchdowns (0.38) to RBs this season. Despite their DVOA ranking, they’ve actually allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards (82.5) to the position. This game is expected to be high scoring and the Seahawks may end up throwing a ton to keep up with Atlanta’s high-octane offense. The question is how Prosise will respond to contact. Seattle doesn’t hit in practice and he hasn’t played in a game since fracturing his scapula in Week 11. Frustratingly, that makes him incredibly risky in this appealing matchup; if he was healthy, he would be a great GPP option on the small slate. Should Prosise play tomorrow, Thomas Rawls would remain the lead back but Prosise will take passing down work from him. If he does well, he could get a good amount of action. If his injury bothers him, or if Seattle is cautious, he might not get enough snaps to be a viable fantasy play. As for Rawls, he already projects as our RB7 and would likely slip a spot behind Ty Montgomery if Prosise suits up. We’ll definitely know before lock as Seattle has the first game this weekend.

Per PFF, Seattle has the top two, and three of the top four run stopping CBs

While most defenses aren’t able to rely on their CBs to help out in the run game, that can not be said for the Seahawks. Richard Sherman has long been thought of as one of the league’s best cover corners – which he still is – but his play against the run doesn’t get nearly as much press. DeShawn Shead and Jeremy Lane also rank inside the top four at the CB spot in terms of run defense. When you add Kam Chancellor to the mix, a safety who can act as a hybrid linebacker at times, this defense can be very tough to run against since they don’t have any notable holes. Still, Atlanta possesses one of the top running games in the league, led by an elite offensive line and a dynamic duo of backs that can beat you in a variety of ways. Devonta Freeman is still well worth considering in tournaments given his upside with 15-20 touches, but his floor (and ceiling to an extent) is capped a bit by the Seahawks run defense. The Seahawks have actually been weaker against the pass since Earl Thomas’ injury, allowing 19 completions of at least 20 yards (tied for most in the league) in the five games since Thomas went out. Matt Ryan is well worth consideration in tournaments especially, as he’s unlikely to garner the ownership percentage of either Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady (and potentially Russell Wilson). Given the nature of the match-up, look towards a guy like Dion Lewis as opposed to Tevin Coleman if searching for a punt play at the RB spot.

Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion) officially questionable for Sunday

Rollins has not cleared the concussion protocol yet but he hasn’t been ruled out of Sunday’s game with the Dallas Cowboys either. His return would be a boost to a Green Bay secondary that’s been utilizing safety Micah Hyde as their slot corner. When Dallas uses at least three wide receivers, it’s likely Rollins (if he plays) slips into the slot and Damarious Randall will man the left cornerback position. Randall has a very poor 39.1 PFF grade this season and he’s allowed 0.51 fantasy points per route defended, which is the highest rate among all corners remaining in the playoffs. Dallas’ third receiver Terrance Williams lines up on his side for over half of his routes, which sets up a very nice matchup. In terms of the comparative advantage based on PFF grades, Williams (72.9) has the largest edge among all WR-CB matchups on the slate. When considering low-owned tournament options, it’s worth taking a look at Williams. He’s averaged 3.3 receptions and 50.0 yards over his past four games and he’s scored twice. Given his price on a site like DraftKings ($3.1K), if he can manage to hit that average line with a score – we’ll say 3/50/1 line, or 14.0 DK pts – he’ll be at 4.5X. In a game that has serious shootout potential, that type of production is within reach. Keep in mind he’s not a safe cash game option, he’s a risky tournament play. We’re projecting his DraftKings ownership at 9%.

Malcolm Mitchell (knee) officially questionable for Saturday

The general tone among beat writers this week was that Mitchell’s status was truly up in the air. Not only is he dealing with a knee injury, but they have four other (healthy) receivers now that Danny Amendola has returned. Former Patriots employee Mike Lombardi appeared on the “Bill Simmons Podcast” last night and said he believes Mitchell will be inactive tomorrow. Should that happen, New England would roll with Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Michael Floyd along with Amendola. Edelman is by far the safest option, he’s averaged 12.6 targets over the last seven games. Hogan and Floyd would be in play for tournaments, as both have big play ability. Floyd posted a 3/36/1 line in place of Mitchell in Week 17 and displayed some serious blocking skills that could earn him extra playing time. New England plays the primetime game on Saturday night, so it’s definitely possible we find out Mitchell’s status prior to lock.

Friday NFL Injury News - LeGarrette Blount removed from injury report, Jordy Nelson officially ruled out

Nelson is dealing with fractured ribs and isn’t going to be able to play the Cowboys this weekend. Aaron Rodgers’ production suffered last year without Nelson in the lineup, he averaged 239.6 yards and 1.94 touchdowns. Across the 2014 and 2016 seasons, when Nelson played every week, Rodgers threw for 273.8 yards and 2.44 scores per game. For a more detailed look at the numbers check out our Aaron Rodgers alert below.

Blount (illness) wasn’t able to practice Wednesday or Thursday but returned for team meetings today and was subsequently removed from the injury report altogether. Blount, the league-leader in rushing touchdowns (18), will be a popular option in fantasy this week. New England is favored by 16 points and has an implied total of 30.5, which sets up a perfect game script for him. Half of his touchdowns have come in games the Patriots have won by at least 15 points, plus if they get ahead early, they could feed him to burn the clock. It’s worth paying attention to Dion Lewis, though, he’s averaged 15 carries over the past three games and while he hasn’t had more than two receptions in any of those, there has been speculation that he was being saved for the playoffs. RotoWorld’s Evan Silva reported that Lewis received nine red zone touches during his last two games, four of which were inside the 10-yard line. LeGarrette Blount has scored 11 of his touchdowns from the one-yard line. In theory, if the Patriots get Lewis more involved in the passing game and continue to use him as a red zone back, he could get the first crack at scoring prior to Blount coming in for the goal line work. It’s tough to predict what the Patriots will do with their backfield, but Lewis is definitely in play for GPP’s on this four-game slate. Considering Lewis’ recent workload, Blount will have a low-floor and is pretty touchdown dependent. Still, he remains the safer bet of the two and has multi-touchdown upside given his production this season and expected game flow.

Steelers-Chiefs game moved to Sunday evening (8:20 pm ET)

The AFC Divisional round game between Pittsburgh and Kansas City has moved from an afternoon start to an evening one in order to allow city personnel more time to clear roads in the area for travel to the game. Conditions are expected to improve so the fantasy impact for this game (other than making sure you have Steelers or Chiefs players in your FLEX spot on DraftKings), other then it being played in frigid weather is minimal.

Jordy Nelson officially ruled out for this week

As expected, the Packers #1 WR has been ruled out for their game this week against the Cowboys with two broken ribs as he has not been cleared by the medical staff to resume practice. The team will re-evaluate his status on Monday if they can somehow manage to get by the Cowboys. For more on how this impacts the Packers offense read Bryan Pauqette’s excellent alert from last night here on RotoGrinders.com.

How important is Jordy Nelson to Aaron Rodgers' fantasy production?

With Nelson (ribs) unlikely to play this week, this is a very important question. Using historical data can be a little dubious as players grow, rosters change, and the overarching offensive style of play across the league has been rapidly changing throughout the past decade. That doesn’t mean it should be ignored, however, so let’s take a look at Rodgers’ splits with Nelson in the lineup since 2011, the first year Nelson exceeded 64 targets (he had 96).

During this six-year stretch, Rodgers has played 68 games with him and his statistical averages equate to 28.4 fantasy points per game. He’s played 20 without him and there are noticeable differences. He’s thrown 0.56 fewer touchdowns (2.51 vs. 1.95) and 42.3 more passing yards (283.6 vs. 242.3) while throwing a similar number of passes (34.44 vs. 35.25). There’s an issue with this sample, though. Outside of last season, which he missed entirely, Jordy only missed four games. By zooming into the past three seasons, when the receiving personnel was similar – Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams were the top three receivers – we can perhaps glean a clearer picture; how did Rodgers bookend Nelson’s 2015 absence? Not surprisingly, it’s nearly identical: in 2014 (Jordy played every game that year) and 2016, Rodgers averaged 2.44 touchdowns (2.38 in 2014, 2.5 in 2016) and 275.3 yards (273.8 in 2014, 276.75 in 2016), but in 2015, he threw 1.94 touchdowns and 239.6 yards per game, all while attempting the same number of passes (35.31 in split and 33.75 out of split). Based on the fact that his 2014 and 2016 numbers are very similar, it can easily be argued that Rodgers’ 2015 dropoff was due to Nelson’s injury. It could also be argued that this year’s team is different due to the lack of running game, they averaged 3.9 more rushing attempts per game last season as compared to this one (27.3 to 23.4), and as a result, Rodgers has thrown 38.1 times per game, whereas he threw 35.75 attempts in 2015. Still, it’s hard not to look at the difference in yards and touchdowns and not be concerned. They brought in James Jones in 2015 to replace Jordy and he ended up leading the team in yards (890) and touchdowns (8) and this year they have tight end Jared Cook. Can Cook be the playmaker Rodgers needs behind Adams and Cobb? Adams has progressed tremendously this season, is it enough? Jordy had the biggest red zone workload of any receiver this year (5.76%) and the Packers are undeniably worse off without him. Based on the information we have, Rodgers’ general touchdown expectation has to take a slight downgrade. That said, their matchup with the Cowboys has the highest total on the slate at 52.5 points, the Packers are 4.5-point dogs, and they have a limited rushing attack – Rodgers will be throwing the ball plenty. Plus, he’s white hot right now, he’s thrown exactly four touchdowns in each of the past three games and he’s thrown at least two touchdowns 14 times this year.

The question now is whether he can keep up that ridiculous pace without his primary touchdown target as Jordy accounted for 35% of the team’s receiving scores this year. More than likely, his ceiling will be lower, but with Davante Adams’ impressive leap in skill, he will assuredly be better off than 2015 Aaron Rodgers. All in all, with a capped upside, it may be worth saving the cash and going to a Matt Ryan, who has a fully healthy squad of receivers and the top-scoring team in the NFL. After all, Matty Ice racked up 516 more yards than Rodgers this season while throwing only two fewer touchdowns. Seattle isn’t the same without Earl Thomas, and even with him on the field, at home, Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on the Seahawks the last time they met. Plus, Atlanta’s implied team total of 28.25 points is well above Green Bay’s 23.75. Choosing Ryan isn’t necessarily a bet against Rodgers, because Rodgers will definitely put up points, it’s simply a wager that the quarterback with the best offense in football has a higher ceiling and less risk. One just needs to ask themselves: how important is Jordy Nelson?

C.J. Prosise (shoulder) will be a game-time decision Saturday

Prosise is considered doubtful but no official decision will be made on his status until Saturday. Fortunately, Seattle plays in the first game this weekend, so we’ll know before lock. Assuming Prosise sits, it may be worth considering Alex Collins as a contrarian GPP play. Even though Thomas Rawls had a big game last weekend against Detroit and Atlanta ranks 29th in rush DVOA, game flow may prevent Rawls from taking full advantage of his momentum and Atlanta’s weakness. This matchup has the second-highest total on the slate at 51.5 points and a five-point spread favoring the Falcons, who scored the most points in the regular season – and it wasn’t close, they scored 71 more points than the next closest team, which is a larger gap than from 2nd to 11th. Based on the expected game script presented by the Vegas lines, Seattle will likely need to throw to keep up in this game. Since Thomas Rawls is essentially a non-factor in the passing game (five receptions over past seven games), this favors the passing down back, which should be Collins if Prosise is ultimately unable to play. Atlanta has allowed the most targets (8.81), most receptions (6.81), second-most receiving yards (54.38), and most receiving touchdowns (0.38) to running backs this season. Despite their DVOA ranking, they’ve actually allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards (82.5) to the position. Last week, Pete Carroll made it clear that he wanted to use Rawls as his featured back and he followed through, but he was able to do so because they were up the whole game. This time around that may not be the case, and Collins, who’s had nine receptions over his past four games, could be a sneaky player this weekend. On a full slate it might not make a lot of sense to take the risk, but on a four-gamer, he could be a disruptive player that people aren’t expecting. To be clear, he’s a very risky choice and is strictly a GPP option; a lot would have to go in his favor, including Carroll getting him the snaps, but it’s within the realm of possibility that he picks up four or five receptions and red zone work. Based on how he’d most likely accumulate fantasy points, he’s a much better option on a full PPR site like DraftKings, where we’re projecting his ownership at 1%.

Report: "Would be shocking" if Ladarius Green (concussion) played Sunday

Green was held out of practice again on Thursday and all signs point to him sitting out this weekend. Green has a history of concussions and may not be able to return this year if the Steelers advance in the playoffs. Jesse James will get the start at tight end but he won’t be a great option in fantasy, he projects as our TE7. James rarely receives more than four targets and his quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, plays worse on the road. Roethlisberger averaged 3.3 passing touchdowns per game at home this season and just 1.1 outside of Pittsburgh, meaning James’ touchdown expectation, which was already low, needs to be downgraded. Expect Ben to primarily target Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Eli Rogers. With Kansas City ranking 7th in pass DVOA and 26th in rush DVOA, Pittsburgh may rely heavily on Bell this weekend.

Jeff Janis (quad) returned to practice Thursday, James Starks (concussion) did not

Janis is somewhat of a cult hero for a limited number of people on DFS twitter, but the reality is he’s had three total receptions since catching all four targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 against the Falcons. He filled in for an injured Randall Cobb that game but has since moved behind Geronimo Allison on the depth chart. It’s likely Janis picks up some extra snaps if Jordy Nelson (ribs) can’t play, but it’s doubtful he can produce anything useful for fantasy. He’s currently our second-lowest projected player on the slate. Starks hasn’t made any progress since suffering a concussion, he’s not expected to play this weekend. Green Bay will continue to start Ty Montgomery and use Christine Michael as a change-of-pace back and Aaron Ripkowski in short-yardage situations. Ripkowski has scored a touchdown in consecutive games and is a legitimate threat to Montgomery’s touchdown expectation. Green Bay only gave Ripkowski two carries last week, but that was enough for him to vulture a one-yard score.

Packers CB Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion) practices in pads Thursday, may have cleared the concussion protocol

Beat writer Rob Demovsky believes Rollins’ return to a padded practice could be a sign he has cleared the concussion protocol. It’s looking more possible, if not likely, that Rollins is going to suit up this weekend against the Cowboys. His return is not a fix for their secondary, they remain a defense to target through the air. According to Pro Football Focus, cornerback Damarious Randall, has the worst grade (39.1) of any cornerback playing this weekend and gives up the most fantasy points per route defended (0.51). Randall has primarily defended the left side of the field, where Terrance Williams lines up for over half of his routes, while strong safety Micah Hyde, who has the fourth-lowest PFF grade (71.2) among remaining corners, has moved into the slot. Rollins’ return will likely come at Hyde’s expense as Rollins mainly lines up in the slot and Hyde is normally a safety. Prior to his injury, Rollins earned a 69.8 grade and allowed 0.34 fantasy points per route defended. That is not a big upgrade from Hyde by those metrics, but there is the benefit that Rollins is a natural corner. The larger improvement is that Randall will likely become the nickel corner, as Rollins and Gunter should be the starters. However, if this game turns into the shootout many are expecting, Dallas could employ plenty of three-wide sets, which should place Terrance Williams with Randall quite often, making the receiver an interesting contrarian GPP option. Williams has averaged 3.3 receptions and 50.0 yards over the past four games, which is nothing great, but he’s managed to score two touchdowns in that stretch and he’s at or near the minimum salary across the industry. Dez Bryant will deal with the physical Ladarius Gunter (77.4 grade, 0.29 fantasy points per route defended) and is certainly the safer bet, but Gunter (with the help of some drops) held Odell Beckham to four receptions for 28 yards on 12 targets in the wild card round. On a short slate, some unexpected player is going to swing the outcomes of tournaments, like Cobb did last week. It may be worth taking a flier on Williams in this spot, but it’s undoubtedly a high risk/high reward proposition.

DeAndre Hopkins says his knee is "excellent"

Hopkins was limited in yesterday’s practice due to a knee injury he suffered against the Raiders last weekend, but he’s ready to roll against the Patriots on Saturday. While many have speculated that Malcolm Butler, who has the highest PFF grade (91.1) of any cornerback remaining in the playoffs, will be responsible for defending Hopkins, that hasn’t been the case in the past. In fact, beat writer Aaron Wilson reports that Butler has never lined up across from Hopkins in his career. When the two teams met earlier this season, Logan Ryan (82.5) handled him with safety help over the top while Butler was responsible for rookie Will Fuller. New England has used a similar approach with success in all three games Hopkins has played them during his four-year career. Hopkins has averaged a measly three receptions, 61.7 yards, and has never scored a touchdown in their matchups. Since their last meeting, New England has shifted their corners around a bit, putting Butler on the left side and Ryan in the slot, so it’s possible they alter their strategy. Of course, the secretive Patriots aren’t going to reveal their plans ahead of time, but considering their past success, it would make sense for them to do the same thing. Brock Osweiler was 0-for-4 when targeting Butler (Fuller still managed three receptions for 31 yards when paired with other defensive backs) and was 5-for-8 when he went after Ryan, which provided Hopkins’ 4/56/0 line. Although it may have made sense to consider Fuller as a deep GPP option if Butler were expected to guard Hopkins, that may not be the case after all. With an implied total of 14.25 points and Brock Osweiler at quarterback, it may be best to simply fade the Texans.