DFS Alerts

Nine Straight Cuts Made Here, Including Six Top 25 Finishes

Poulter might be what we consider a Euro Tour regular, but he owns a home in Orlando and spends a lot of his time in the area. This is essentially a home away from home type of game, which makes me trust his course history. He has played here each of the last nine years and has never missed a cut. In fact, he has never finished worse than T41 and has six top 25 finishes during that stretch. He clearly likes the course and fits the mold of being a grinder. It’s going to be windy and you will have to gain strokes in all facets of your game in order to contend. He played well last week at the Honda Classic, finishing T27 while gaining strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. Most of his top finishes on the PGA Tour have come on Bermuda, which is just another reason to like him this week. He offers safety and upside at a relatively cheap price point.

Elite Form & the Heavy Betting Favorite

There are quite a few reasons to like McIlroy this week. We’ll start with the obvious — he has six straight top five finishes worldwide and hasn’t finished outside of the top 30 in his last 13 events. He’s the clear betting favorite this week at 5-to-1, yet he isn’t that much more expensive than the other golfers in the field. Last week, Tommy Fleetwood was the favorites at 11-to-1 with Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler trailing him in the betting market. This week, the next closest in the market is Fleetwood, who is listed at 14-to-1. Essentially, we are getting a much bigger favorite (Rory) at a similar price point. He’s ranked first in this field in birdie or better percentage, strokes gained off the tee, and bogey avoidance. He clearly loves Bay Hill, posting a fourth, a win, and a sixth here over the last three years. With this being a smaller field than usual, we can afford to take chances with cheaper golfers, which makes it easier to afford the studs. With the 6-of-6 percentage likely to be high, we need to chase win equity and McIlroy offers more of that than any golfer in the field.

This Course Tends to Favor the Euro Tour Regulars

It will be interesting to see how owned Hatton is this week. At the WGC-Mexico, he was going to be the chalky value play until everyone heard about the wrist surgery that caused him to miss two months of action. After back-to-back years of seeing Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas struggle for months after sustaining wrist injuries, the masses were scared off of Hatton. He ended up being low owned and despite the concerns, he gained strokes in all facets of his game and finished T6. His statistics look a lot better than you might think, as he’s ranked 20th in the field in strokes gained approach, 15th in the key proximity ranges, and 15th in bogey avoidance. He’s played here three times, making the cut every year and posting a T4 back in 2017. He likes the course, he’s coming off of a great ball striking week in Mexico, and he’s affordable across the industry. With so many enticing plays in this range, I am hoping Hatton flies under the radar.

Showdown preview round three of The Honda Classic

As expected there were plenty of big numbers to be had over the first two days of play at PGA National. With plenty of big names playing poorly over the first two days, players like Luke Donald and Brendan Steele find themselves at the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend. Steele was in a similar position earlier this year at the Sony Open but was unable to seal the deal ultimately loosing to Cameron Smith in a playoff. Former number one player in the world Luke Donald finds himself near the lead on the weekend for the first since the 2017 RBC Heritage Classic. As a past champion of this event, Donald does have positive course history to build on, but at this point in his career, it’s safe to say that we are not dealing with the same golfer. With a two-round scoring average of 144, PGA National did not yield many low rounds over the first two days of play. With hard course conditions through the weekend, the relative value of par golf really increases. There will be birdies made this weekend, but I would be surprised to see a sub 65 round. Of course, these are the best players in the world, and anything is possible, but your focus this weekend is to target players who understand how to attack this course. Players who fire at pins and miss will make big numbers, so unlike other showdown slates golfers who mix in a ton of pars with an occasional birdie will grade out as good plays. When looking at stats over the first two rounds I like taking shots on guys who have hit the ball well but just have not made any putts. In a birdie fest, this type of play will usually not work, but with par being a good score you can feel a little more comfortable with this type of play. PGA Tour rookie Matthew NeSmith is a player that fits in this type of play nicely. Over the first two rounds, NeSmith has hit 22 of 36 greens, but with almost 2 putts per GIR, he only has one birdie for the week. NeSmith has proven to be a good ball striker early in his career, and with a few more converted birdie opportunities this weekend he could end up being a great source of value.

Five Minutes to roster lock at The Honda Classic, no major news to report

No major news to report ahead of the first round of The Honda Classic. It’s the first early lock of the season, so please double check you lineups prior to the start of round one. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!

Weather update for The Honda Classic

Weather is always something you have to pay attention to at PGA National. The already hard course layout often is made much harder when the wind blows. Kevin Roth’s weather report is up in the main forum, and it appears that we could have a slight weather draw over the first two rounds of play. Thursday morning golfers will have to deal with potential sustained wind speeds of 15 mph. Golfers who tee off later on Thursday will still have some wind to deal with but as players get later in the day the winds could decrease to as little as 5mph. Both waves could have strong gusts, but for now, it looks like there is a slight predicted edge to the golfers who play later on Thursday. Friday looks to have the same weather pattern, but according to Roth the difference between the two waves will be very small or even the same. While it does not sound like you should avoid any gofers from either wave, it’s not a bad idea to stack some lineups with players in the same wave in case of a strong weather draw on Thursday.

Matthew NeSmith continues to have a successful rookie season

While he is not quite a household name yet on the PGA Tour, Matthew NeSmith is quietly proving he belongs on the best tour in golf. Currently ranked 4th in the FedEx Cup standings for rookies ( 62nd overall), NeSmith comes into this week looking to build on his first career top 10 at last week’s Puerto Rico Open. In 12 starts this season NeSmith has made 8 cuts including 5 top 25 or better finishes. With the potential wind in play this week and the overall tough nature of PGA National the need to target excellent ball strikers increases significantly. Through 20 plus starts last season on the Korn Ferry Tour ( 1 ranked in Gir) and his limited starts on the PGA Tour( 13th ranked in GIR), NeSmith looks to have the makeup of a player leans on accurate iron play. Priced-down in this field NeSmith is a young player worth taking a look at this week for both salary relief and upside in large field GPP’s.

Camilo Villegas makes a return to the PGA Tour

After missing nearly two years of professional golf with a shoulder injury, Camilo Villegas made a return to competitive golf earlier this year. Villegas played three times this season on the Korn Ferry Tour, highlighted by a 4th place finish earlier this month at The Country Club de Bogota Championship. Playing in his first PGA Tour start since the 2018 Houston Open, Villegas will look to continue his comeback at a course that he has played well in the past. This former top 10 player in the world has 4 career victories to his name including the 2010 Honda Classic. Currently projected at a very low ownership number, Villegas is a player that not many have an interest in playing for the week. The stigma of injury is something that most take a wait and see approach on, so for those who are max multi entering GPP’s and or are a bit more risk tolerance Villegas is a player worth exploring as he continues to return to the world of competitive golf.

Lucas Glover stands out as a great source of value

Last year at this point of the season Lucas Glover had already played his way near the top of the FedEx Cup standings. Glover’s 16 top 25 or better finishes earned him a spot in the tour championship for first time in ten years. Currently ranked outside the top 125 in this year’s race, Glover has struggled to play his best golf to this point in the season. Priced-down on a course that fit’s his style of golf, Glover stands out as one of the top golfers in our projection model for the week. PGA National rewards great ball strikers, and Glover has always excelled in his ability to control the golf ball. Glover has three consecutive top 25 or better finishes at this event. On a course where big numbers will be very common Glover has posted 9 of his last 12 rounds at 70 or better. Looking to build a little momentum as the tour heads East, Glover will look to build on past success at PGA National.

Jason Kokrak is no longer in the field

Jason Kokrak withdrew today from The Honda Classic and will be replaced by Chris Baker. Due to the timing of this move, we should not expect to see Baker added to the player pool.

Old Man Game Fits PGA National Nicely

Does Furyk make the core plays more often than he should? Probably, but that doesn’t mean that the numbers are lying. While I like to chase narratives and gut plays, it’s important to have a base when it comes to your decision-making. Having a model that you can trust is important and seeing as how I created my model, I obviously trust it. In this field, Furyk is ranked second in strokes gained approach, fifth in the hole yardage breakdown, and 11th in strokes gained total on Bermuda grass. He is the 14th ranked golfer in my model this week, yet he’s the 48th most expensive on DraftKings and the 41st most expensive on FanDuel. That screams value, yet his ownership projection is sitting around 10%.

The reason why he’s not on everyone’s radar this week is two-fold — he’s not a sexy play when it comes to DFS. He’s been around forever, he doesn’t hit the ball very far, and he doesn’t make a ton of birdies. At this course, experience and patience helps, you don’t need distance, and it’s more important to avoid bogeys than to make birdies. The second reason he’s getting overlooked is that he’s missed back-to-back cuts. I’m more than fine overlooking this given the fact that on each of those Fridays, he birdied his 17th hole to get inside of the cut line and then bogeyed his final hole to miss the cut on the number… in both events. That’s variance more than bad form. Look for Furyk to bounce back in a big way on a course where he posted a top 10 last year.

Putting? Who Needs Putting?

I originally had Daniel Berger as a core play, but decided to write up Benny An instead. The more research that I did about the course leads me to believe that tee to green is more important than putting. In order to win any PGA Tour event, you are going to have to putt well. However, there are certain courses where bad putters are at a big disadvantage. Generally, the tougher the course, the more I’m willing to roster a bad putter. The reasoning is fairly simple — when everyone is hitting greens and routinely giving themselves 15-20 foot birdie opportunities, it turns into a putting contest. When it’s a big advantage to save par, the bad putters see a nice boost (assuming they don’t lose strokes around the greens).

While Benny An will cause many headaches throughout the course of the season due to his numerous three-foot putts failing to find the bottom of the cup, he’s ranked first in this field in strokes gained around the green and second in bogey avoidance. That combination is huge at a course where saving par is critical. His tee to green game it elite and he’s quietly ranked third in this field in strokes gained total on Bermuda grass (and yes, this statistic includes putting). He has played here twice, posting finishes of T5 and T36. He’s currently the fourth ranked golfer in my model, yet he’s the 13th most expensive on DraftKings and the 11th most expensive on FanDuel. I still like Berger quite a bit, but will be using Benny An over him in my main lineup.

Elevated Price Point will Keep Ownership Down

There are a lot of reasons to like Fleetwood this week, but let me start with the obvious reason people are overlooking him — he’s the most expensive golfer in the field. When the salaries were first released, I thought to myself that there’s no way I would target Fleetwood. It’s not the strongest field in the world, but he’s never won on the PGA Tour and the likes of Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, and Gary Woodland are significantly cheaper. I certainly see the hesitation that most have when it comes to Fleetwood. However, I’m looking to avoid the super chalky golfers this week and the price on Fleetwood is helping to keep ownership down. When I ran my model, he was easily the top rated golfer (99.2) in the field and it wasn’t particularly close (Brooks Koepka was second at 93.2).

Fleetwood is one of the best tee-to-green golfers in the world, he’s been in elite form worldwide, and he’s first in this field in strokes gained total on Bermuda grass. He tends to play his best golf on difficult courses and PGA National certainly qualifies. He’s a good total driver of the ball, he’s very good with his long irons (very hit wedge opportunities this week), and he’s better around the greens than he gets credit for. He has only played this event one time, but finished in a tie for fourth back in 2018. He often gets labeled as a contender that can’t close the door, but he just won on the European Tour a couple months back. He checks every single box that I’m looking at this week, which can’t be said for Koepka, Fowler, and Woodland.

Charles Howell and J.J Spaun are both no longer in the field

Just shortly after DFS prices were released today news surfaced of some early player movement for The Honda Classic. Both Charles Howell and J.J. Spaun are no longer in the field this week. Brandon Hagy and Michael Gligic have gained entry into the field this week and should get added to the DFS pricing pool within the next day.

Rory McIlroy rides a hot putter to first round lead

After a less than satisfying finish at Rivera, Rory McIlroy decided to make a putter switch ahead of this week’s WGC Mexico Championship. McIlroy put his old putter back in the bag this week, and for now, it looks like he made the right choice. McIlroy gained almost 4 shots putting in round 1 and will head into Friday’s round with a two-shot lead. One of the bigger disappointments of day one was the performance of the defending champion Dustin Johnson. His round one showdown score of 12.5 was by far his lowest output on this course. Prior to yesterday’s poor performance, Johnson had averaged almost 49 showdown points per round over his last 12 starts at this course. Looking to bounce back from what looks to be an outlier performance Johnson could come in much lower in ownership than that of McIlroy in the round two slate.