DFS Alerts
Ten minutes to WGC Mexico roster lock, no major news to report
All is quiet in terms of news prior to the start of The WGC Mexico Championship. Weather looks perfect for the week and with a limited field and condensed tee times, there is almost no need to worry about tee time wave splits. ResultsDB will be up and running after lock, and will also have a few contests for The Puerto Rico Open. Good luck this week grinders.
Dustin Johnson in search of his 7th WGC title
With his current count of six WGC wins, Dustin Johnson is only an unthinkable thirteen wins away from passing Tiger Woods for the overall lead career WGC wins. To have six PGA tour wins alone is an impressive task, so Johnson’s six wins in WGC events only points to how dominant of a player he can be on one of golf’s biggest stages. With three of those wins coming at this event, two at this course, Johnson has a proven track record of high performance at this event. Johnson is 12 for 12 in rounds under par at Club de Golf Chapultepec with 7 of those rounds at an impressive 66 or better. Johnson was close to winning last week at Rivera ( another course he plays well) and should have plenty of momentum to build on as he prepares to defend his win from last year.
As reported by: PGA Expert Survey Tyrrell Hatton set to make his 2020 debut
When Tyrrell Hatton tee’s it up on Thursday it will be his first competitive round in almost three months. Hatton has been sidelined due to a wrist injury/surgery and will make his return this week. Injuries are always a scary thing and whenever you see a golfer with a wrist injury it makes it harder to put a ton of blind faith that they will return at 100%. Our projected ownership numbers on Hatton reflect this lack of trust. With just a few hours before lock Hatton is one of the top projected ownership movers of the week. For those who like to go against such a move, Hatton does play well at this course. In his 3 starts at Club de Golf Chapultepec Hatton has 3 top 20 or better finishes gaining almost 25 shots tee to green.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Hideki Matsuyama in good form ahead of WGC Mexico Championship
Hideki Matsuyama was able to overcome a poor start at last week’s Genisis Open to post his third top-five or better finish this season. A birdie on the last hole secured a spot to play on the weekend, and with rounds of 64 and 69 Matsuyama showed just how deadly he can be when his game is at full force. At this point in his career, Matsuyama is regarded as one of the better T2G players in the game, and if he can build on his fantastic play over the weekend at Rivera, then all signs point towards a win sooner than later. Looking to become the fourth player to have 3 career WGC titles, Matsuyama is not cheap this week but certainly has both the record and form worthy of a top-end spend.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Byeong-Hun An stands out as a great source of value
Currently ranked in the 27th spot in this year’s FedEx Cup race, Byeong-Hun An will look to take advantage of the benefits that come with playing in a WGC event. In addition to a guaranteed paycheck, An will also receive valuable FedEx cup points for just showing up and playing four rounds. Still searching for his first win on Tour, An is a player that has plenty of experience when it comes to playing in the bigger events on tour. With 10 career starts in WGC stroke-play events, An understands the importance of this week and would like nothing more than to have the type of performance that would take his career to the next level. Priced-down in this very strong field An is a player that stands out in our projection model for the week. With one of his five top 15 or better finishes coming at this year’s WGC-HSBC An has shown both the ability to play well in a big event and the upside to crush his price for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Scottie Scheffler set to make his WGC debut
Making a WGC event in your first full year as a rookie on the PGA Tour is not an easy task. Currently ranked just outside the top 50 in the world and looking to build on what has been a successful start to the season Scottie Scheffler will make his WGC debut this week. Priced-down in this very strong field, Scheffler stands out as a great source of value for the first WGC event of the 2020 calendar year. Prior to missing two out of the last three cuts, Scheffler started out the 2020 season off on a hot streak by posting six top 20 or better finishes in his first eight starts. With more than enough upside to payoff his low price for the week, Scheffler’s value rises due to the fact that this is a non-cut event.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Paul Casey trending as a popular play for the second week in a row
For the second straight week, Paul Casey is projected to be one of the highest owned players. For last week’s Genisis Open the price was just too low for a player of Casey’s talent level. This week the ownership will bunch towards Casey due to his strong course history. In three starts at Club de Golf Chapultepec Casey is a combined 26 under par with three top 16 or better finishes. Coming off what was an ok week in terms of price-performance at Rivera, Casey did not scare away the DFS crowd ahead of this week’s WGC event.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Course fit, low ownership, and experience playing at altitude
I don’t like to lean strictly on narratives in PGA DFS, but they don’t hurt when they support someone that was already a strong play to begin with. Fitzpatrick has a lot of experience playing at altitude, as he has one of the best track records at the Nordea Masters. It’s the closest tournament in elevation to this week’s WGC-Mexico. He’s also played here three times, posting three straight top 30s. While he does most of his damage on the European Tour, he is playing more on this side of the pond this season. He’s a player to keep an eye on over the next few months, as his irons and short game are extremely underrated. It’s early in the week, but it looks like he’ll be low owned, which is important. The two or three events he’s been the chalk, he’s been a huge disappointment. At a track that didn’t really suit his skill set, Fitz posted a T30 at Riviera thanks to gaining nearly five strokes on approach. I love the floor, I love the ownership, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention on Sunday.
No-cut and strong-field specialist
Schauffele was the biggest ownership surprise at the Genesis Invitational. Most sites had him projected for under 20% (including RotoGrinders), yet he was the most popular golfer in many contests (especially at high stakes). After nearly missing the cut, he managed to put together a nice weekend and finished in a tie for 23rd. We should be encouraged by this performance, as he gained over six strokes tee to green. I expect him to be popular again this week, but he’s the type of chalk that I’m willing to eat. I would much rather take my chances with a fade in the $6,000-$7,000 range. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game, which bodes well on a course that will test all aspects of golf. He’s finished in the top 20 here in both of his appearances and has earned the reputation of being a strong-field and no-cut specialist. He’s won the Tour Championship and the Tournament of Champions, which are both small-field, no-cut events. He’s not only one of my favorite plays for DFS, but X is also one of my favorite bets of the week.
A win is coming and I plan to be there when it happens
I believe Hideki has been featured in the core plays each of the last four events that he has played. I keep saying a win is imminent and I keep mentioning that I will be on him when it happens. He nearly missed the cut last week at the Genesis Invitational. He had to birdie his final hole to make the cut on the number. He proceeded to post the lowest score on the weekend (nine-under par) and he vaulted up to a tie for fifth place. He gained over 12 strokes tee to green, which is all I need to see heading into this week. His off the tee game is improving, his irons have been heating up, and his around the green game is the best in the field over the last 36 rounds. His preferred putting surface is poa and he tends to string together solid finishes. In case you haven’t noticed, he has top 16 finishes in nine of his last 11 events on tour. If he keeps knocking at the door, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through with another win. My hope is that the sticker shock ($10,000 on DraftKings) will help keep ownership at a reasonable level.
Justin Thomas looks to bounce back from a poor opening round at The Genesis Invitational
Even though there were a few low rounds on Thursday, Riviera Country Club held it’s own by days end with a first-round scoring average of 71.41. Justin Thomas found himself on the wrong side of the scoring spectrum as he struggled to find form en route to an opening round of 74. If you are looking for a player to bounce back in round one then one would have to expect Thomas to have an improvement off Thursday’s performance. From a glass half full perspective Thomas did manage three birdies in the five greens he hit on Thursday. Assuming a player of his caliber figures out a few things heading into Friday Thomas has the firepower to take it low on any course at any time. Playing from the outside of the cut line on Friday, Thomas will have to hit it better today if he has hopes of making it through to the weekend.
Ten Minutes to roster lock at The Genesis Invitational and there is no major news to report
With ten minutes until rosters lock there is no major news to report this morning. Good luck this week grinders, ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after rosters lock.
Tiger Woods looks to break record at the course where it all started
With the total wins on tour record firmly in his grasp, Tiger Woods will tee up at Rivera this week looking to make history at the course where he played his first PGA Tour event. Woods missed the cut here as an amateur in 1992 at Rivera shooting scores of 72 and 75. Rivera is one of the few courses that has eluded Woods in terms of PGA Tour victories. There is a strong sense that California born golfer struggles with this course and low ownership numbers reflect the overall lack of interest Woods this week. Twice a runner up at Rivera, Woods went many seasons in his prime skipping this event. Now the host for The Genisis Open, Woods enters this week healthy and should always be regarded as a threat to win. Always a flair for the narrative Woods would love nothing more than to win number 83 at the course where he first played on the tour.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Jason Day flying under the radar
Throughout the week the theme of this being a strong field is something that continues to gain steam. This type of narrative continues to have a strong effect on how ownership numbers trend prior to roster lock. Even with last week’s strong performance, Jason Day is one of those players who is going largely unnoticed by the masses. Lots of other great players in the same price range have made it easy for most in the DFS world to cross out Day from roster consideration. Day’s poor track record at this event has also added to the appeal of making him a fade this week. Despite those factors, Day has the game to play well at Rivera. The combination of length and one of the highest ball flights on tour makes Day a player who can perform well at a track like Rivera. Looking to put two strong weeks together Day makes for a great low owned GPP addition for those who don’t mind a little gamble.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Phil Mickelson to have a new caddie on the bag this week
Via his twitter page today, Tim Mickelson announced that he will not be on his brother’s bag this week as he takes some time off to rest his body. Andrew Getson ( Phil’s swing coach) will take over the duties as Phil looks to continue a push to make it to this year’s U.S. Open via a top 50 spot in the world. Coming off a somewhat disappointing third-place finish at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Mickelson finds himself currently in the 53rd position in the OWGR. This former two time Genisis Open Champion comes into the week in good form and will look to build on a very solid course history at Rivera. While the switch of a caddie is a bit newsworthy, the real impact should be very little this week as Mickelson knows this course very well.
As reported by: Tim Mickelson Twitter