DFS Alerts
No Major Weaknesses
Hadwin was close to making my core plays article last week, but I ultimately got away from him given the fact that he just had a baby and that he hadn’t played a tournament in a couple of months. He was just fine at the Waste Management, posting a T40 finish while gaining strokes in all facets except his irons. While that’s a small concern, I’ll trust the larger sample with his approach game (37th in this field). He’s surprisingly good off the tee and is ranked in the top 20 in strokes gained putting on Poa Annua grass. He has played here twice over the last three years, posting finishes of T18 (2019) and T39 (2017). He’s a cut maker with upside, as evidenced by his four top six finishes in his last 13 events on tour. He doesn’t have a major weakness in his game and he’s clearly used to the pro-am format and three-course rotation for this event.
Game is Trending Upward and He Loves this Course
I wasn’t expecting Knox to be the most expensive core play this week, but based on the current weights in my PGA model, he’s ranked sixth for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. To put that into context, he’s the 16th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has made 11 straight cuts on tour and has posted eight straight top 37 finishes. He doesn’t have any top 10 finishes during that stretch, but he’s inching closer and closer after a T16 at the Waste Management Open. He’s added swing speed this year and he’s quietly hit some bombs (check out some of his 330+ yard drives from last week). While that won’t come in handy all that much this week, it never hurts on the par fives. He’s ranked third in this field in strokes gained approach and he’s one of the best on tour at avoiding bogeys. I understand the argument that he lacks upside, but that’s only an argument until it’s not. He’s won multiple events on tour, Poa Annua grass is his preferred putting surface, and he’s posted back-to-back top 15 finishes here. His game is trending upward and I plan to be there when he peaks.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee is no longer in the field
In what should be a very light week in terms of player movement, K.H Lee has pulled out of this week’s ATT Pro-Am. Lee has been replaced by soon to be Senior PGA Tour player Tim Herron. LineupHQ will add Herron once he is officially added by each site.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Tim Herron
Joel Dahmen is no longer in the field
Joel Dahmen has withdrawn prior to the start of today’s final round. Please remove him from any showdown builds.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Value plays dominate the leaderboard during the first round of The WMPO
Round one of The WMPO did not finish due to darkness. With only one group left on the course ( putting out on 18 green ), we can still get a good look at the splits from day one despite not a full set of data. Typically we see a stronger afternoon basis on this course, but today both waves played to almost an even split. The one thing to really stood out is that value plays dominated the leaderboard on day one. In order to roster the top six golfers in terms of showdown scoring, you would have to of left almost 7k of salary on the board. While this is on the extreme side of a single-round contest, I think it’s worth considering the idea of leaving money on the table if you like your roster. Single round prices ( first three rounds) are more in line with full round prices which factors in a golfers chance of gaining finishing points. Round two will start on time Friday with players going off one and ten in threesomes.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Five Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
Outside of Sean O’Hair’s withdrawing late on Wednesday, it’s all quiet on the new front ahead of the opening round of this year’s WMPO. ResultsDB will be up and running shortly after roster lock. Showdown players can look to gain a small edge by attacking some later tee times in each of the first two rounds. With perfect weather in play this week you will normally see cooler temps in the morning which can make the course play a little harder. Nothing that should sway you off a golfer, but it’s worth noting that historically we have seen some low scores in the afternoon as conditions warm up. Good luck this week Grinders!!!
Daniel Berger looks to build on solid start to the 2020 season
With a nagging wrist injury finally, in the rearview mirror, Daniel Berger enters this week with a bit of momentum on his side. Berger enters this week having made 3 straight cuts highlighted by 12 consecutive rounds of 70 or better. Underpriced in comparison to his recent form, Berger is a player worth taking a look at as a strong value play this week. With three top 11 or better finishes in five career starts at The WMPO Berger has a little bit of course history in his corner this week. Prior to his injury Berger was regarded as one of the better young players in the game. A solid start to this season gives us hope that Berger is on the fast track to greater things in the future.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Sean O'Hair is no longer in the field
Sean O’Hair will not play in this week’s WMPO. One would assume this late in the week that O’Hair has some kind of injury or illness keeping him out of the event. At this time we have no news to go on, and his replacement ( Robby Shelton) will not be available in DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Robby Shelton Tony Finau looks to solve the mystery of TPC Scottsdale
There are not many courses where Tony Finau has a poor course history. Week in and week out Finau is a golfer you can feel confident in playing in your DFS rosters. After posting a T22 in his first start at The WMPO Finau has missed four straight cuts at this event. At the heart of this poor play seems to be worse than normal putting. In 12 career rounds at TPC Scottsdale Finau has only managed to post 4 rounds in the positive in the strokes gained putting category. While that does not look good on paper, it would not surprise anyone to see Finau figure these greens this week. Priced up higher than his course form would indicate Finau is trending as sub 10% golfer this week. For those looking to buck the negative course history narrative, Finau represents a great place to differentiate in terms of a top-end spend this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Zack Sucher and other late additions added to the DFS pricing pool
If you have not added Zack Sucher as a twitter follower than you are missing out on a great story in terms of DFS golf. The young touring pro is one of the few golfers in the industry to really embrace the DFS industry. One week after interacting with the world of DFS twitter Sucher was able to medal at this week’s Monday qualifier and gain entry into one of the smaller events on tour. Sucher and the other late adds now have projections, and are ready to roll in builds through lineupHQ.
As reported by: Zack Sucher Twitter Get Right Spot for this Ball Striking Phenom
I know Benny An is coming off of two bad outings in a row, but he feels grossly mis-priced across the industry. Early ownership projections have him around 16%, but I expect him to be around 20% when lineups lock. We can forgive him for the bad outing in the birdie fest at The Amex and his T68 at the Farmers Insurance Open is a bit misleading. He gained 3.4 strokes on approach, but lost over seven strokes putting. Sure, he’s a bad putter, but he’s not that bad of a putter. He now returns to an event where he’s had a lot of success over the years. He’s played here three times, posting finishes of T6, T23, and T20. His off the tee numbers have been trending in the wrong direction, but hopefully the familiar sight lines of TPC Scottsdale will help him get back on track. We know he’s lights out with his irons and very few will notice that he’s actually first in this field in strokes gained around the green. The same golfers tend to play well at this event year in and year out, so I’m willing to eat a little more chalk than usual.
The X-Man isn't Phased by the Party Crowd in Phoenix
I typically like to take more of a balanced approach in my main lineup and then use more of a stars and scrubs approach in MME. With so many great plays in the $7,000 range on DraftKings and the $8,000 range on FanDuel, I like the idea of starting my main lineup with two studs. It’s tough to do with the likes of Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, but you can easily make it work with Matsuyama and Schauffele. Xander was fairly popular last week at Torrey Pines, but ended up missing the cut on the number after missing some short putts to finish out his round on Friday. I’m not overly concerned because he had bad course history there to begin with and had four straight top 10 finishes before last week. Look for him to get back on the horse this week in Phoenix. He’s one of the best total drivers in this field and he’s ranked inside the top 15 in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, and bogey avoidance. He’s also very good on and around the greens. He’s played here each of the last two years and has posted finishes of T17 and T10, so he clearly likes the course and isn’t phased by the party atmosphere.
Nobody Loves TPC Scottsdale as Much as Matsuyama
We start with Mr. Course History himself. Matsuyama has played here a total of six times, posting finishes of fourth, second, first, first, WD, and T15. The year he withdrew he injured his wrist and was unable to compete in the second round despite getting off to a nice start on Thursday. I usually only look at course history from the last five years and Hideki has the highest course history index of any golfer in the field. He’s solid off the tee, he’s one of the best on tour with his irons, he’s quietly gained strokes around the green in 18 of his last 22 events, and he’s first in this field in bogey avoidance. The only weakness has been his putter, but he’s actually gained strokes putting in three of his last four trips to TPC Scottsdale. I certainly have no issue building lineups around Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, or Webb Simpson, but Matsuyama is my favorite point-per-dollar play of the bunch. It’s been two and a half years since he last won on tour and he’s inching closer and closer with four top 10 finishes in his last nine events.
Steve Stricker is no longer in the field
Steve Stricker is no longer in the WMPO field. He withdrew on Tuesday and will be replaced by Xinjun Zhang. Monday qualifiers and Zhang should get added to the player pool today.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Xin-Jun Zhang Ryan Palmer scorches the North Course on Friday
Looking to build on back to back strong showings at Torrey Pines, Ryan Palmer sits atop the leaderboard after posting a 62 on Friday. For whatever reason, it’s always hard to follow up a really low round with another, so Palmer could have his hands full on Saturday. As expected the North Course played much easier than the South Course again on Friday. Over the first two days, the North Course played almost 3 shots easier than the South which equated to an average of 9 more DK showdown points per round for golfers who played the North Course over the first two days. With 80 players making the cut, pairings will be in threesomes both Saturday and Sunday with golfers starting on both the first and tenth tee. Both Saturday and Sunday’s rounds will take place on the South Course. Players will find the course setup this weekend very similar to the first two days, which means that based upon data from the last 10 years we will see around 20 golfers shoot under 70 on Saturday. Historically scoring averages on the weekend are just a bit lower than what we see for the first two rounds, but this has much to do with smaller field numbers and golfers who are playing in better form. Weather should be sunny and little to no wind over the weekend. If you are taking notes from this year’s event it’s worth looking into how widely known the course biases are for showdown slates. For those w players that like to leverage small ownership edges golfers of all prices and skill levels were very under-owned for the round played on the South Course.
As reported by: ResultsDB