DFS Alerts
Charles Howell flying under the radar this week
The book on Charles Howell is that you want to play him early and often during the season as he tends to play his best golf early and fade late. Entering this week a rested Howell is somewhat going overlooked as a solid source of value for the week. As a past winner of this event, Howell has a great track record at Rivera including five straight made cuts. Priced-down in this strong field, Howell represents a great way to grab both stability and upside for the week. In addition to his win, Howell has 4 top 15 or better finishes at this event and has gained almost 14 shots tee to green in his last five starts at The Genisis Open. With current low projected ownership, Howell makes for a great pivot off other popular value-priced golfers.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Sergio Garcia set to make his 2020 PGA Debut
Typically at this point in the season, we start to see players who split time between the European Tour and The PGA Tour spend more time in the states. With both WGC events and Major Championships starting to itch closer and closer on the schedule, the strength of field for events like this week’s Genisis Open really starts to sand out with the addition of players like Sergio Garcia. Playing in his first event of the 2020 season, Garcia stands out as one of the better value-priced golfers on the slate. Historically a great ball striker, Rivera is the type of course that Garcia has played well in the past ( 3 career top six or better finishes). Garica is never really a popular option for DFS and even with a low price, you can expect to gain some ownership leverage as well as potential upside by rostering this former major champion this week. With a handful of strong finishes on the European Tour over the last few months, Garica comes into this week in good form.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Safety with Win Equity
Casey is in the exact same boat as Rose — while the form isn’t elite, the price is just too cheap to ignore. Casey was inside the top 10 for most of last week’s event, but had a brutal final round to drop down to T60 on the leaderboard. It was his worst round (relative to the field) that we have on record in the ShotLink data. I’m willing to overlook one bad round, especially since we saw a bunch of golfers do the same thing at Pebble Beach. Casey is a great total driver of the ball, he is one of the best on tour with his irons, and he is ranked inside the top 30 in bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage. He nearly won here back in 2015 where he lost in a playoff to James Hahn. He’s never finished outside of the top 50 here, which makes him one of the safest plays on the board. He could be $1,000 more expensive across the industry and I’d still give him consideration.
Putting our Differences Aside
I’m not the biggest fan of Rose when it comes to DFS. He seems like a great person on and off the course, but I’ve always held a grudge after he cost me the Fantasy Golf World Championship two years ago. All he needed to do was make the cut after not missing a cut in more than a calendar year. I’m not bitter, you are bitter. Kidding aside, I can’t overlook this price point. I know he missed the cut his last time out at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he was the defending champion and was coming off of a layoff. Do you know the last time he missed back-to-back cuts on the PGA Tour? Back in 2015 when he missed three cuts in four events. He doesn’t play this event every season, but has never missed a cut here and has four top 16 finishes here in his last five tries. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game, he loves playing in California, and he’s just too cheap across the industry.
A Win is Right Around the Corner
Matsuyama has made the core plays each of the last four times he has teed it up. The reasoning is pretty simple — he’s trending toward a win, he has a great track record in all of these early season events, and he’s consistently underpriced when it comes to DFS. His off the tee numbers have held him back over the last couple of events, but his irons and around the green game are as good as anyone’s on tour right now. In this field, he’s ranked fourth in approach, third in birdie or better percentage, first in bogey avoidance, and third in around the green. He has three top 11 finishes here in his last four appearances and should benefit from a course that rewards precision ball striking. A win is on the horizon and I will be there when it happens. I always like Matsuyama in these stacked fields because he always seems underpriced and he tends to play his best on difficult courses. If the putter shows up, this could be the week that we’ve all been waiting for.
Course trends to pay attention to ahead of the third round of The AT&T Pro-Am
Golfers who played on either Pebble Beach or Monterey Peninsula had a slight advantage as both courses played much easier than Spyglass Hills. In terms of DK Showdown scoring players on Monterey Peninsula and Pebble Beach averaged 39 and 34 points respectably while players at Spyglass Hills struggled to an average of 27 points per player. Moving into Saturday there is a chance that weather could play a role in how easy or hard each course could play. If the wind picks up then both Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula stand to play a bit harder due to less protection from the wind. Spyglass, for the most part, is protected from the wind so players could see the scoring gaps narrowed if the wind blows on Saturday. Looking to build on what is already a great track record at this event Jason Day will headline a group of golfers looking to take advantage of what could be a wind blocked Spyglass Hills on Saturday. If you are playing the weekend slate please note that the cut will take place after play on Saturday, and with a large number of golfers hovering within 2 shots of either side of the cut line there is a ton of variance in play with golfers making it through to Sunday.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Showdown preview round two
The historical course splits held up over the first round of this year’s AT&T Pro-Am as Monterey Peninsula once again played the easiest of the three courses. Playing almost a third of shot easier than the other two courses in the rotation, there was a small edge to be had in terms of leaning on golfers who started at the Monterey Peninsula Shore Course. In terms of showdown scoring, we see a bigger gap as both Spyglass Hills and Pebble Beach both came in almost 4 shots lower than that of Monterey Peninsula. Fresh off a round of 66 on Spyglass Patrick Cantley will be a popular pick as he makes his way to Monterey for round 2. Golfers who played on Pebble Beach will move Spyglass and those on MP will move to Pebble Beach.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Five Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
Outside of John Merrick’s withdrawal, there is no major news to report this morning. Merrick pulled out earlier this morning and has been replaced by J.J Henry. Good luck this week Grinders, ResultsDb will be up and running shortly after lock.
Course splits to consider for showdown slates
With three courses in play this week there could be a small edge to gain by looking at how each course stacks up in terms of both score and rounds under 70. Since the 2015 season, Monterey Peninsula has been the course that we typically want to attack in terms of being the easiest course. Yielding an average of 20.5 rounds under 70 and a scoring average of .75 under par Monterey Peninsula stands above the two other courses in terms of the best opportunity to yield low scores. While this does not mean you should avoid the other two courses it’s worth noting that you increase your chance of low rounds by picking golfers from the easiest course. In the same time span, the other two courses in the rotation ( Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hills) are pretty close in how they play with an average of 11.8 rounds under 70 and scoring averages near .10 under par. If you are close on two players then you can perhaps pick the golfer on the easier course.
John Merrick is no longer in the field
With just less than an hour before the first tee time, John Merrick has pulled out of this week’s AT&T Pro-Am and will be replaced by J.J Henry. Please remove Merrick from your roster builds.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Other tagged players: J.J. Henry Weather update for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Weather is always something to take into play for this week’s event. Pebble Beach has a long history of wind and rain impacting the outcome of tournaments through its storied history. When using weather for the week we have to consider the variable of both course rotation as well as the projected forecast. Adding to the confusion of handicapping weather draws is the fact that three courses are in use over the first three rounds of play. Looking at Kevin Roth’s forecast we can expect pretty similar conditions over the first two and a half days with wind perhaps stronger late on Saturday. Players will tee off both the first and the tenth tee over the first three days with only 2.5 hours between the first and the last tee time. If there is an edge to be gained using weather it will be very small which could set up a spot to revisit the forecast prior to the round 3 showdown slate. If the wind blows on Saturday Pebble Beach will typically player harder than the other two courses in the rotation.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Jordan Spieth looks to build on positive course history
In just a few short seasons Jordan Spieth has gone from a world-class player to someone many in the industry label as washed up. With predicted ownership of less than 7% for the week, there is a chance to buy low on a golfer who has proven to play well at this tournament in the past. In addition to gaining 41 shots tee to green in his last five starts at The ATT Pro-Am, Spieth is a former champ with a perfect cut record in seven career starts. The debate moving forward will be can Spieth turn his game around. For those who either believe in Spieth and or like the idea of buying low on ownership, then the addition of this former top player in the world to your roster builds is a great way to gain leverage in GPP’s this week.
As reported by: FanDuel Projected Ownership Russell Knox continues to play well early in the season
Since missing the first cut of the 2020 season, Russell Knox has rolled out a stretch of golf that includes nine made cuts in a row. This period of golf is highlighted by 5 top 30 or better finishes. Currently ranked inside the top 60 in this year’s FedEx cup race, Knox will look to build on a pretty solid course history to keep his streak alive this week. In his last 8 rounds at this event, Knox has five rounds of 70 or better leading to back to back top 16 or better showings. Regarded as a great iron player Knox comes into this week in good form and with a game that travels well on Poa greens, he figures to be in play this week. If you are leaning towards a balanced build then it’s not crazy to have Knox as your top-end spend this week. In a week where there is a strong movement to stuff in value plays to get high end spends, this multiple tour winner in good form has enough upside to make a balance build both unique and viable.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Patrick Rodgers looks to build on a solid start to the 2020 season
Coming out of college Patrick Rodgers was a player that many expected to make an impact on tour. While his five years on tour have not exactly been a failure, Rodgers has yet to finish inside the top 70 in the final FedEx cup standings. Entering this week on back to back strong showings ( 9th and 16th) Rodgers will look to keep the momentum going as he prepares to play in his 3rd ATT Pro-Am. In his last two starts, Rodgers ownership failed to break the 2% threshold and our early numbers this week once again have him trending towards a low number. Rodgers has gained 15 shots tee to green in his last two starts. Had a few more putts dropped last week there is a good chance Rodgers would have improved on his T16 at The WMPO. Heading into the final round last week Rodgers was near the top of the field in GIR for the week but was also dead last in putts per GIR. With great form in his tee to green game, Rodgers is only a hot week of putting away from contending towards his first-ever PGA Tour victory. At what once gain appears to be low ownership, Rodgers has appeal as high upside value pick this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Great Course Fit + Priced at a Discount
I don’t expect Furyk to be low owned this week, but the old man narrative always seems to cap his ownership. Similar to Knox, everyone views Furyk as a safe bet to make the cut. That’s certainly true and he probably doesn’t bring a ton of win equity to the table at this stage of his career (although he nearly won The PLAYERS last season). What everyone overlooks is that in this price range, a top 20 finish will more than pay off his salary. You aren’t targeting Furyk because you think he will win, you target him as the fourth or fifth golfer in your lineup. He posted a T14 here last season and followed it up with a T28 finish at the U.S. Open here. He’s accurate off the tee, one of the best in the field on approach, and he doesn’t make bogeys. He also likes putting on Poa Annua, which could be a big factor this week. He hasn’t played a lot of golf recently, but the last time we saw him he gained nearly seven strokes on approach at the RSM Classic.