DFS Alerts
Tringale would be an Overzet Play
Let’s not overthink it this week. As Overzet says, just “play the best plays!” This would bring us to Tringale in his respective price ranges. Tringale capped off a fantastic summer finishing inside the Top 25 seven times, making 11 of 13 cuts. I never lock a player in golf, even if a 10k player was down to 8k, there is still a realistic expectation of underperformance. In this case, Tringale would be approach 50% exposure for me. He has really shown his consistency and even with mixed course history, I am leaning on his renewed 2019 golf game to carry him into contention again this week.
Play the best "Golfers" for their Price
Let’s not overthink it this week. As Overzet says, just “play the best plays!” This would bring us to Tringale in his respective price ranges. Tringale capped off a fantastic summer finishing inside the Top 25 seven times, making 11 of 13 cuts. I never lock a player in golf, even if a 10k player was down to 8k, there is still a realistic expectation of underperformance. In this case, Tringale would be approach 50% exposure for me. He has really shown his consistency and even with mixed course history, I am leaning on his renewed 2019 golf game to carry him into contention again this week.
Sabbatini Provides Course Profile Value
Sabbs is a bit expensive compared to others on this list but arguably fair. This will be Sabbatini’s 9th straight start at Mayakoba, so as you can expect he has seen his fair share of ups and downs. He has 2 Top 5s, 2 MCs and a lot of finishes in between. He has been one of the most consistent performers this year racking up 6 Top 10s, moving himself up to 75th in the world, up from 212th last season. Sabbatini is no bomber, but a precision strategist. What does that mean? He ranks inside the Top 90 on Tour inside of every category except for Driving Distance. He ranks 51st in Approaches from 125-150 yards, a range that will be critical for players this week. I would consider Sabbatini in both GPPs and Single Entry contests, similarly to Harman.
Vaughn Taylor stands out as a great source of value
After a brief week off The PGA Tour returns to action this week. In terms of finding value, gamers will have to adjust to strategies used during the stretch of events where we had the luxury of playing without a cut. With only the top 65 and ties making it through to the weekend, the focus on value plays will shift towards finding golfers that have the best chance of playing all four rounds. Playing in his seventh Mayakoba Golf Classic Vaughn Taylor is a golfer we can target in terms of value for the week. Taylor has a perfect cut record at this event including a T26 last season. Not the longest golfer on tour, Taylor relies on a game built around accuracy and timely putting. In his last three starts at this tournament, Taylor has been in a position to really crush his value heading into Sunday’s final round. Taylor’s round of 70 en route to his finish last season was an improvement on his two previous rounds of 74, but overall you would have to assume this tour veteran feels like there is an opportunity to really post a solid finish at a course that fits his game. With a discount in price, Taylor stands out as one of the better point per dollar plays in our projection model for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool
Too Cheap to Pass Up
Last and hopefully not least is Mr. Harman, who was just priced above $9,000 on DraftKings ($10,000 on FanDuel) a few weeks ago. This is arguably just as weak of a field and an even better course fit. He’s now $7,700 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. I’ll gladly buy low on Harman, even at elevated ownership. The times when I like to fade the chalk is when a volatile (usually cheap) golfer becomes popular. Much like Harris English, Harman has really found his ball striking of late. He missed the cut at the Houston Open, but gained at least five strokes tee to green in three of his previous five events. He doesn’t have any amazing finishes, but the course should set up well for what he does best.
Harris... Get your Winning Pants On
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the week. My main man English is going to pick up a win. He’s won two times on the PGA Tour in his career, but they were both in 2013. Since then, he has really struggled to stay relevant and even lost his tour card. He’s always been a good putter, but something happened to his swing along the way. Whatever it was, it appears that he’s fixed it. Over his last four events, he has gained 5.2, 9.3, 4.8, and 6.8 strokes ball striking (three top six finishes during this stretch). Those numbers rival anyone in the field this week, which is saying something given the fact that we have Viktor Hovland and Tony Finau set to tee it up. Most DFS players use five years of course history in their research and I don’t blame them. However, if you look back an extra year, you’ll see that English has a win on this course back in 2013. His game is trending, he’s affordable in DFS, and he’s a great bet at 50/1.
Worst Putter on Tour? Ah.. Who Cares?
Grillo has caused many headaches for DFS players over the last couple of years. His ball striking is second to none in this field, but he might be the worst putter on tour. This leads to a lot of made cuts and a lot of uninspiring finishes. We don’t have any strokes gained data from the CJ Cup or the Zozo Championship, but he lost 21 strokes combined on the greens in his previous five events. Eventually, he has to run into a decent putting week. Even if he doesn’t putt the lights out, he can still compete in a weaker field and on a course that he likes. He has played here three times and has never finished outside of the top 15. We’ve seen a lot of winners at this event come from the mid-range odds golfers, so I wouldn’t mind if that happened again this week.
Elite Course History and a Nice Price Point
This isn’t the strongest field that we’ve seen recently and the golfers at the top can win on any track, but most of them gain a ton of strokes off the tee. Personally, I like the balanced build with golfers that fit the course a little better. I will be starting many lineups with Knox, who has made five straight cuts (if you include the European Tour), highlighted by a T11 his last time out (Bermuda Championship). We know that he’s very good at two things — hitting fairways and gaining strokes with his irons. That’s basically all you need at El Cameleon Golf Club. Knox clearly has an affinity for the course, as he is 6-for-6 here with no worse than a T37 finish. He’s also finished inside the top 10 here in each of his last three attempts. He rates out number nine in my stat model for the week and number five overall.
Affordable With Upside
Redman has played in six full field events during the fall season, and he has made the cut in five of them. His approach play has been super consistent ever since the middle of the summer, and he feels like a safe option for a made cut here. That has plenty of value in a suspect field, especially when you factor in Redman’s affordable price tag. He did flash some upside with a 13th place finish in Houston last month, and I expect him to play well despite the fact that he has never played on this layout. The course should cater to his fairways and greens ability, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Redman sneak inside the top ten.
Simply Too Cheap
The rising Georgia native has been on fire to start the 2019-2020 campaign, as English has sparkled in the four events that he has played during the fall swing. Three of his four starts have resulted in top SIX finishes, and the fact remains that his DFS price tags are far too cheap. Given the relatively mediocre strength of field here and his recent form, I would expect English to be much more expensive than this. He’s a bargain at a salary right around your average price to spend per golfer on every site. His ball striking has been elite, as he ranks second in that metric this year behind only Patrick Cantlay. The one negative is his underwhelming course history, especially of late. However, I’m willing to put the shaky course history aside. English is simply playing at another level right now.
Great Course Fit
Russell Knox is not biggest household name, and he’s also surprisingly expensive on every site except for Yahoo this week. I’m hoping that serves to lower his ownership. Knox always seems to thrive on layouts that minimize the importance of distance and maximize the importance of approach play, and that’s exactly what we have here. Sometimes course history can be a fluke, but it is no fluke that this is the course where Knox has top ten finishes in each of his last three trips. He has solid Vegas odds, and he showed signs of life in Bermuda two weeks ago with four straight sub-70 rounds and an 11th place finish. Knox is an elite option in this spot.
Time For a Breakthrough Win
No course history? No problem. If you haven’t been plugged in to the DFS golf landscape over the last four or five months, it’s time to get yourself acquainted with perhaps the best young golfer on Tour. He rolled off finishes of 13th, 13th, 16th, and 4th to close out the summer season, and he started the fall swing with a top ten at the Greenbrier before fading a bit during the Asian swing. Look for him to get back on track here on North American soil in Mexico. If you tally up his 48 PGA Tour rounds, he actually leads this field in strokes gained tee to green and ball striking. His game is fantastic throughout the bag, and I’m definitely willing to spend up for him in this relatively modest field. A win is coming soon, and this could be the spot for his breakthrough.
Xander Schauffele starts off title defense with a strong effort
Defending a title on the PGA Tour is always a hard task. With nine birdies en route to an open round of 66 Xander Schauffele is in a good position to perhaps defend his title this week. For those playing the showdown slates, Schauffele looks to be a priority spend as he as absolutely dominated this course over his last five rounds. Including yesterday’s nine birdies, Schauffele has 31 birdies over his last five rounds at Sheshan International Golf Club. Joining Schauffele as an elite top-end spend for the round two showdown slate is Rory McIlroy. The current FedEx Cup champion made 8 birdies during round one redeeming himself from a very poor showing at last year’s event. When building showdown lineups it’s easy to fit one or both of these players in due to the amount of value the format provides.
Other tagged players: Rory McIlroy Thirty minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
The Asian leg of the PGA Tour comes to an end this week. It’s been nice having primetime golf, but I would guess all of the DFS Community is ready to have shot tracker back in a few weeks. Rosters lock in 30 minutes today so please make sure to edit any lineups that you may have set earlier in the week. You check back to see how your lineups stack up against the field as ResultsDB contest listed fifteen minutes after lock. As always we will post any late-breaking news before lock. Again roster lock is at 8:45 P.M. eastern time, so please get those rosters set.
Louis Oosthuizen under priced compared to his talent
A bad reputation is often a hard thing for a DFS player to overcome. Louis Oosthuizen has somewhat of a bad rap for withdrawing from events due to injury. If you can get over this type of view then adding Oosthuizen to your roster builds is a great way to gain upside for the week. With a proven track record of playing well at some of the biggest events in the world, Oosthuizen is a golfer we can look to as a great source of value this week. Looking at the price compared to talent and Oosthuizen really stands out even in a very talented field. Of the players in his price range, Oosthuizen is really one of the few players who you can say has the pedigree to win this type of event.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays