DFS Alerts
Kevin Kisner trending as a strong value play
The big challenge this week is to try and figure out what type of players have the best shot to play well at this new venue. On a course that appears to favor driving accuracy and timely putting, players like Kevin Kisner stand out as great sources of value for the week. Kisner finished the 2019 season strong and has proven that he can compete against the best players in the world. Priced-down in this very strong field, Kisner is a player you should feel comfortable rostering in all formats for the week. Kisner’s home courses are both tree-lined venues, so it’s safe to say that this multiple PGA Tour winner should have no trouble adjusting to a tighter golf course.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Ryo Ishikawa returns to The PGA tour for the first time in two years
At one point in his career, Ryo Ishikawa was considered one of the more talented young players in the game of golf. As a two-time member of the Presidents Cup team, Ishikawa had reached elite status in the terms of international golf. A full-time member of the PGA Tour from 2012 to the 2017 season, Ishikawa returns to play in his first event after losing his card at the end of the 2017 season. Plagued by a nagging back injury Ishikawa worked hard on getting his back healthy and is in this week’s field via his multiple win season on The Japanese tour. Playing in front of hometown fans Ishikawa is a different player than we saw during the 2017 season. Healthy and ready for a second chance this week represents a great opportunity for Isikiawa to return to golf’s biggest stage.
As reported by: PGA Tour Rory McIlroy set to make his 2020 PGA Tour debut
The current PGA Tour player of the year will make his 2020 debut this week at The ZoZo Championship. Coming off a year in which he finished inside the top ten 14 times ( 19 starts), including 3 wins it’s very easy to see why McIlroy should be considered a great top-end spend for the week. While some might stray away from McIlroy on this less than driver course, there is very little reason to think that he has the talent to win each and every week he plays. From a roster construction standpoint, there is more than enough value to squeeze McIlroy into builds. From a motivational standpoint, there is nothing more McIlroy would like to do than start off the season with a win. Fresh off winning the player of the year in what could have easily been Brooks Koepka’s year to win, McIlroy is a great spot to quiet down any possible critics.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Jordan Spieth continues to ride hot putter
Prior to the use of advanced golf stats to gain a sense of a player’s ability, we would simply look at results to identify the measure of a player. Now more than ever players put every part of their game under the scrutiny of advanced golf analytics. For the better part of 18 months, Jordan Speith has seen a decline in his overall performance. Winless since the 2017 British Open, Speith has really struggled to keep the ball in play off the tee. Without any advanced strokes gained metrics to look at from last week, we have to go old school and look at the somewhat outdated stats to gain a sense of how a player performed. Despite finishing last in driving ( fairways hit) Speith was able to use his hot putter ( 2nd in total putts) to finish inside the top 10. There was some hope that with an offseason to work on things that Spieth would have a better start to the year in terms of his ball-striking. While his last-place showing in total fairways hit is a bit alarming, there is a case to be made for taking a more patient approach to the progress of Spieth’s game. Keep in mind we have zero strokes gained numbers to go by last week. The one thing that is apparent to gain from last week is that the DFS community is not ready to jump on board with Spieth. Currently projected at sub 10% ownership, Spieth could be considered as a unique top end tournament spend for the week. Assuming he keeps the ball in play Spieth could potentially ride his hot putter to top finish as he looks to regain his lost form.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Rory Sabbatini stands out as a great source of value
Rory Sabbatini narrowly missed playing in the Tour Championship last season. For a golfer who struggled to crack the top 100 in FedEx Cup points for the prior three seasons, Sabbatini’s performance last season was truly a nice surprise. Sabbatini posted 11 top 25 or better finishes in 27 starts last year. The really impressive part of his 2019 season, was the way Sabbatini finished the year. In his last 7 starts, Sabbatini posted six top 18 or better showings. The strong finish made Sabbatini a DFS roster option for much of the latter part of the season. When you look at prices for this event Sabbatini feels a bit low compared to his recent form. Sabbatini has made 2 of his 3 cuts this season ( counting European Tour) and is in a great spot to play well on a course that could favor his style of golf. With such a big discount in price Sabbatini could easily pay off his salary with a top 25 finish this week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Kevin Na trending in the right direction
For many years Kevin Na was a golfer that many in the DFS community could not stand. Fueled by some very untimely withdrawals and or lackluster performances when popular, Na quickly gained a reputation as a player to simply avoid. With two wins in the last 12 months, Na could be the type of player who peaks late in terms of a professional career. With what looks like a course that could favor accuracy and a bit of strategy a confident Na is worth a look in roster builds for the week. Currently trending at a somewhat projected ownership number Na is a great way to gain some ownership leverage in this short field event.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Tommy Fleetwood looks to bounce back from a poor putting week
Still, in search of what has turned out to be an elusive first PGA Tour win, Tommy Fleetwood enters this week looking to take advantage of his second small field start of the season. For many players, a top 20 finish is almost always a great thing, but after looking at some stats from last week you would have to imagine that Fleetwood sees the week as somewhat of a letdown. Always a great ball striker, Fleetwood hit 60 of the 72 greens last week, but his ice-cold putter left him near the dead bottom in the field in terms of total putts made. With a total 130 putts over four days, Fleetwood only managed to beat four golfers in total putts at last week’s event. Normally a better than average putter, Fleetwood is a good spot to bounce back this week. Ball striking is something we can usually count on week in and week out, and with a handful of strong international finishes to start the season Fleetwood is only a really good week with the putter away from finally breaking through for his first PGA Tour win.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Good Form and Good Value
Sabbs is my favorite value play of the week and he headlines a strong value range, which is how I’m able to get three studs into my lineup. There isn’t anything with his stats that is going to jump off the page, but he’s above-average at pretty much everything. He’s solid off the tee, he’s good on approach, and he has really improved his short game over the last year. He has quietly turned into a very consistent golfer week in and week out. This will be his third event in a row, after logging a T10 at the Italian Open and a T31 at the CJ Cup. We don’t have any strokes gained data from last week, but Sabbatini hit 78% of greens and made 19 birdies on the week. His ability to make birdies and avoid bogeys is huge in a no-cut event. At this price point, he just needs to repeat his performance from last week and he’ll easily pay off his salary.
Iron Play and Putting
My hope this week is that Fitzpatrick will get overlooked. Golfers that spend most of their time on the European Tour aren’t as low owned as they used to be in DFS, but I expect many to be scared off by this hefty price tag. Anyone that uses a stat model (that’s based on PGA Tour data) will certainly look the other way, as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 in any of the key statistics for the week. However, he has been in impeccable form recently. He has already racked up three runner-up finishes in Europe, including one his last time out at the Italian Open. While he doesn’t have any experience playing in Japan, he does have five top 10 finishes in Asia. He’s not the longest off the tee, but he’s good with his irons and is one of the best putters on tour (sixth in strokes gained putting in Europe). I like him as an outright bet at 33-to-1 and love him in DFS this week (especially if he’s going to be low owned).
Ball Striker Looking to Strike Gold with the Flatstick
While Hideki and Fleetwood will both garner ownership, I doubt many lineups will feature both golfers. With no cut and a decent number of value golfers in play this week, I like the idea of taking two chances on golfers with winning upside in this field. Fleetwood is known more for his cut-making and top 10 finishes, but he’s won plenty on the European Tour. He just hasn’t been able to close the door on the PGA Tour. He finished in a tie for fifth at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and followed it up with a T20 at last week’s CJ Cup. The latter may not seem great, but he ended the week fifth in greens in regulation with the ninth worst putts per green in regulation. In other words, the flatstick held him back from another top end finish. Putting is by far the most volatile stat week-to-week and it can flip on a dime. With this being a new course that’s tree-lined with water hazards, bogey avoidance could be critical. In this field, only Rory McIlroy makes fewer bogeys.
A Victory on Home Soil?
Hideki has a lot working in his favor this week and if you don’t want to spend up for the top of the board (Justin Thomas & Rory McIlroy), I recommend starting lineups with Matsuyama. He will have added pressure this week as Japan’s most talented golfer in the field, but he’s always the attention of their golf media, regardless of the event. He’s one of the few golfers (and the only big name) that has experience at this course and he comes into the week in tremendous form. He has quietly turned into one of the best scramblers on tour, which is huge given how good he is off the tee and with his irons. He played in last week’s CJ Cup, finishing in a tie for third (fifth in greens in regulation for the week). He didn’t fare too well in the skins challenge on Sunday night, but that might actually be a positive. Perhaps it will take the attention off of him and potentially lead to lower ownership. If you tuned in for any of the event, it was a glorified practice round where the golfers tried their best to talk trash. Hideki has form, he has knowledge of the course, and he’s long due for a win.
Two hours until roster lock, make sure to set your lineups
Golf moves to primetime as The Tour heads to Korea for this week’s CJ Cup. Just a reminder that you have just about two hours to finish up your rosters. As of now, there is no major news to report and it appears that Luke List, Pat Perez, and Matt Jones are all ready to play. There had been speculation earlier in the week around all three not playing. ResultsDB will be up and running 15 minutes after rosters lock. Please check back to see how your lineups stack up against the field. As always we will post any late-breaking news before lock. Again roster lock is at 7:00 P.M. eastern time, so please get those rosters sets.
Other tagged players: Pat Perez, Matt Jones Jason Day flying under the radar
Despite having a very good track record in his two starts at this event Jason Day looks to be a player who will go under-owned for the week. Currently projected to have a sub 10% ownership for the week, Day is a player you can target as a pivot off other popular players in his price range. In his last two starts at The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges Day has finished with very respectable showings of T5 and T11. Over his two starts at this event Day has made an average of 20 birdies. If you are uncomfortable throwing Day into main type roster build then his solid course history makes for a great spot to target in showdown slates. Typically ownership for showdown slates runs in line with that of the main slate, so we can expect Day to be great spot for leverage in both formats.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Kevin Tway offers upside at a discount
Now a year removed from winning his first PGA Tour event Kevin Tway will look to make the most of his third appearance in The CJ Cup. Like many other players before him, Tway has struggled at times after winning his first event. Priced-down due to his less than stellar play over the last few months, someone of Tway’s caliber stands out as a great place to attack in this no-cut format. If you are going stars and scrubs this week, then the long-hitting Tway is the type of play that can pay off his salary despite a top tier finish. With four scorable par-five holes in play this week, we want to attack players that have the length to take advantage of such opportunities. In his first two trips to this event, Tway has averaged 13 birdies per tournament. If we get a week where he throws in a few more birdies or even an eagle, then there is a strong chance that Tway will end up as one of the better point per dollar golfers.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Tommy Fleetwood is still in search of his first PGA Tour win
It’s hard to believe that Tommy Fleetwood is winless on the PGA Tour. For a player with this much talent, it’s only a matter of time before the wins start to pile up. Win equity is a factor used to determine price, and because of this, there is value to be had with Fleetwood this week. Making his first appearance at The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges Fleetwood will look to take advantage of a game that really has no weaknesses. In addition to an elite level of ball striking, Fleetwood is a good putter who has a proven ability to go low and make a ton of birdies. Priced-down in comparison to his peers Fleetwood makes for a great core piece in all formats for the week. Coming into the week with back to back top 15 or better finishes on The European Tour Fleetwood will finally look to get the winless monkey off his back.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays