DFS Alerts
Marc Leishman looks to build on a good week
With multiple injury-related withdrawals, many in the DFS community found it easy to get off Marc Lieshamn during the start of the wraparound season. A very low owned golfer for the Safeway Open, Leishman was able to post a high finish rewarding those in the field who were willing to take a chance on his game returning to form. Heading into this week’s event we can see the same pattern for Leishman. With two very good showings in the past at this event, Leishman will have more ownership than he did in his last start, , but with still somewhat low projected ownership there is still a chance to gain some leverage for the week. Motivated to keep his game in shape for a Presidents Cup start later this fall, Leishman has a ton of motivation to play well this week. Just a few hundred more in price than some other popular golfers the addition of Leishman to your roster builds is a great way to add both upside and leverage this week.
As reported by: PGA Expert Survey
Jordan Spieth set to make his 2020 PGA debut
It’s been almost two months since Jordan Spieth last competed in a tournament. In what has been a well-documented fall from the top ranks in the world of golf, Spieth will look to regain the form that saw him as one of the better players in the world. During his off time, Spieth will have spent the time necessary working on his game in hopes of improving his erratic driver play. Entering this week at a very low projected ownership number it’s safe to say that the majority of the DFS world has very little faith in a return to form for Spieth. While his form off the tee is something that we should have a concern with, there is a strong case to be made for trying to get ahead of the curve in a potential comeback season for Spieth. While most will take a wait and see approach with this past major champion, those who want to be aggressive with Spieth could potentially gain an edge on a player who is hungry to return to the winner’s circle.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Pat Perez, Matt Jones, and Luke List are all now listed in the field with assigned tee times
Earlier today there was a big cloud of uncertainty as Pat Perez, Matt Jones, and Luke List all had their tee times removed from the PGA Tour website. All three players now have times listed on the site and appear ready to play this week. As always we will keep an eye on any news up until lock. Just a reminder that rosters lock Wednesday evening for this event in Korea.
As reported by: PGA Tour Other tagged players: Matt Jones, Luke List Pat Perez, Matt Jones, and Luke List are all potential withdrawals this week
While there has been no official word on any player withdrawing this week, the three players listed above are missing an official tee time on the PGA Tour website. We will keep an eye on the news wire and provide official information when it becomes available. For now, the best plan of action is to avoid adding any of these golfers to your roster build pools.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Other tagged players: Matt Jones, Luke List Poor Form Should Keep Ownership Down
An has missed back-to-back cuts on the PGA Tour and he wasn’t particularly close to the cut line. His form is obviously a big concern. However, he’s a perfect fit for this golf course. He’s one of the best ball strikers on tour and he’s ranked first in this field in strokes gained around the green. Scrambling has been crucial here over the last two years and we should expect the same the third time around. An hasn’t been making as many birdies recently, but he’s second in the field in bogey avoidance. His best putting surface is bentgrass and he is from Seoul, South Korea, which is basically only an hour flight from Jeju. I love his upside in a no-cut event and it’s worth noting that he’s played here each of the last two years, posting finishes of T41 and T11.
Strong Course History
Poulter was essentially the defending champion at both events last week. He won the Houston Open in 2018 and he won the Italian Open the last time it was held at that course. He decided to play on the Euro Tour, likely because he is playing in the events in Asia the next two weeks. It was a bit of a surprise, but he missed the cut last week. I’m hoping that will help keep ownership down. Well, that and the fact that Americans seems to despise Poulter, so he’s rarely highly owned. For what it’s worth, he missed the cut right on the number and was in solid form the four previous events. Much like Putnam, Poulter is very good with his irons and he can get hot with the flatstick. He clearly has an eye for this course, finishing T10 and T15 here the last two years. He’s fairly safe in a no-cut event and has quite a bit of upside this week.
Elite Iron Play and Putting
Putnam is not a golfer that I target very often in DFS, so I was a bit surprised to see him rate out so well in my model. He feels a little overpriced, especially given the talent in this field. Many will look to the bombers this week, but you don’t want to be playing out of the rough. The fairways here are generous and the course is very short by PGA Tour standards. Add in the fact that the course is 3,500 feet above sea level and golfers won’t need to bomb it to contend. That should be great news for Putnam, whose only weakness is off the tee. He’s ranked 10th in this field in strokes gained approach and 10th in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He makes a lot of birdies and has quietly strung together some very good results — 10 straight made cuts with five top 25 finishes during that stretch. It doesn’t hurt that he’s seen the course before, finishing T29 here last year.
Taking a Stroll Down Narrative Lane
Do I feel great about targeting an over-priced and an over-owned Sungjae Im this week? Not exactly, but I’m taking a stroll down narrative street. Im not only grew up in South Korea, but he grew up playing this course. It was essentially his home course for many years. He wasn’t great at this event last season, but he finished the week with 19 birdies and an eagle. He’s clearly in better form this time around, as he has posted top 20 finishes in four of his last five events. He’s been so close to picking up his first win on tour, so how fitting would it be in his home town at a course he great up playing? Even though his ball striking numbers don’t quite match up to the other golfers priced around him, he’s elite on and around the greens and he’s ranked fifth in this field in birdie or better percentage. I am willing to eat the chalk given his comfort level at this course and plan to differentiate my lineups elsewhere.
High Floor and a Good Fit for the Course
There are a lot of good options to spend up on this week. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka have both won here in the last two years, Hideki Matsuyama is a great fit for the course, and Viktor Hovland has been a top 10 machine. My favorite play of the studs when you factor in upside and price is Fleetwood. He has quietly been in great form recently, posting top 15 finishes in four of his last five events. The last time we saw him was at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship where he finished in a tie for fifth. He’s one of the best total drivers on tour, which should come in handy on a course that features four par fives and two drivable par fours. While his birdie or better percentage has been down over the last six months, he is avoiding bogeys with the best of them. In fact, he’s ranked first in this field in bogey avoidance. We only have two years of course history to work with, so we shouldn’t discount those that haven’t played here before. Fleetwood may not have the same winning equity as Thomas or Koepka, but he might be the safest play in that top tier of pricing.
Home Game Narrative
I like Justin Thomas as my favorite overall play, but I will side with the “home game” narrative with Sungjae Im as my favorite point per dollar play. He is obviously more familiar with this course than anyone else in the field having grown up on Jeju Island, and his current form is trending toward that breakthrough win on Tour. His game is solid all the way through his bag, and he should be rested and ready to go after skipping last week’s event in Houston in order to get home sooner. He already has a runner up finish and another top 20 on the fall swing, and I’ll be rooting for him to hoist some hardware in his native town. That would be a fantastic story.
Ultimate Risk/Reward Play
Okay, let’s get crazy. Remember when Luke List was about $2,000 more expensive than he currently is on DraftKings and FanDuel? Remember when everyone was willingly paying those price tags? List has always been a mega streaky golfer, and I’ll happily target him as his form starts to improve. Eventually, the price tag will start to rise as well. I’m also more inclined to take him on a course where par five scoring plays nicely, as it does here with four reachable par fives. The no cut nature of the event also helps, as List will be guaranteed four rounds. Throw in his fifth place finish in his only previous trip here and back-to-back top 30’s on his current resume, and you have all the makings of a fine GPP value play. He gained over 5.5 strokes from tee to green last week, and the arrow is definitely pointing up.
Rounding Into Form
The summer of 2019 was not kind to Marc Leishman. As we transitioned into the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the close of the 2018-2019 season, the bloom was falling off every rose for the Aussie. His withdrawal at the Greenbrier got the fall swing off to a poor start. That led to Leishman garnering sub-5% ownership everywhere for the Safeway Open a few weeks back… where he of course proceeded to shoot 67-65 on the weekend to surge up to third place. That certainly doesn’t mean that he is all the way back, but it’s a promising sign. I’d rather try to peg him a week early than miss the boat on his resurgence, especially since ownership will remain low at these salaries (particularly on DK/FDRFT). Leishman is a good wind player with a solid short game, and he still finished ranked 31st in par five scoring and 41st in putting during a down 2018-2019 year. I’m happy to start captaining the ship again.
Twenty minutes until roster lock and no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the first round. There is a chance that we have a weather bais draw that favors golfers who play early on Friday. From a showdown slate perspective, you could take advantage of this potential draw by stacking some early wave golfers for Friday’s round. There is a strong front moving through the area Thursday evening so if you are leary of trying to attack this week via weather bias draw you can use the showdown slate to gain an edge via weather. ResultsDB will be up and running 15 minutes after rosters lock. Please check back to see how your lineups stack up against the field.
Kevin Stadler is no longer in the field
Kevin Stadler withdrew from The Houston Open today and will be replaced by Parker McLachlin. Due to the timing of this move, McLachlin will not be added to DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Parker McLachlin Weather update for The Houston Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The Houston Open is up in the main forum. The unusually hot stretch of fall weather will end this week for most of Texas as a front moves into the state late Thursday bringing wind, rain and cooler temperatures on Friday. In terms of DFS, we have a choice to make on how we handle the potential front and its impact on Friday golf. With pretty much equal weather for both waves on Thursday, our attention instead turns to who could likely have the better draw on Friday. The chance of some kind of delay could throw a wrench into the idea that early morning golfers on Friday could have an advantage. As it currently stands the best plan of action for stacking tee time waves is to do just that. If you are MME building for the week it’s a good idea to get exposures to lineups that favor on side of the draw. By no means is there a clear choice in the potential wave advantage, but in case there is an edge you can allocate a small percentage of your builds to complete the narrative that one side of the draw wins out over the first two days of play.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report