DFS Alerts
Aaron Wise looks to bounce back from a missed cut
With a little over two-thirds of the PGA Tour season in the books, Aaron Wise will have to play some great golf if he has any hopes of repeating what was a very successful rookie debut. Currently ranked in the 94th position in the FedEx Cup race, Wise prepares to play in The RBC Canadian Open after a disappointing missed cut at last week’s Memorial tournament. It’s not uncommon to see players who play well as rookies struggle a bit in their sophomore season. While Wise has lacked in top ten’s compared to last season his 5 top 25 or better finishes this year is still solid in terms of expectations. Priced down due to his play this season Wise stands out as one of the better point per dollar plays in our projection model for the week. Wise has gained strokes tee to green in 4 out of his last 5 starts but is not the type of player that will pop in a lot of stats based models for the week. When you decide to take a chance on a player like Wise it’s more based upon how you feel about him in terms of a long term view. This week represents a great buy low spot on a very talented young player.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool
Players could face brutal conditions in the rough this week
It’s always nice when PGA Tour players give us an insight into life in between the ropes. Whee Kim took to Instagram today to show us what the rough looks like at Hamilton Golf Club. While it’s hard to determine if every hole has this quality of tall grass, its still very alarming to see what could happen if you spray the tee ball this week. If you were considering the bomber angle this week the link to the video below might provide a compelling case to perhaps look at accuracy over distance.
As reported by: Whee Kim Instagram Field update for The RBC Canadian Open
Having the spot on the schedule prior to a major championship has more than it’s fair share of difficulties. With a 36 hole U.S. Open qualifier on Monday, it’s pretty normal to see players take a pass on this week’s event. Jason Dufner and K.H. Lee both qualified for Pebble Beach next week and have decided to take a pass on The RBC. Bronson Burgoon is not in the field for The U.S. Open but will also skip this week’s event. Billy Hurley III, George McNeill, and Brendon Todd will take the three spots in this week’s field, and should be available for pricing soon.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Bronson Burgoon Dark Horse for a Top 10 Finish
My dark horse this week is Mr. Stefani. His off the tee game has really held him back over the last month of play, but that shouldn’t be a huge issue at this course. Half of the holes feature dog legs, the fairways are narrow, and the course measures less than 7,000 yards. He will be able to club down off the tee and basically put himself in the same spots as the rest of the field. His iron game has been on fire recently, gaining 6.1, 5.8, and 1.8 strokes on approach in his last three tournaments. Don’t be surprised to see Stefani finish inside the top 10 this week.
Elite Ball Striker from the Euro Tour
EVR is one of the best golfers on the European Tour. We’ve seen many golfers try their hand at the PGA Tour and fail, but we’ve also seen many come over here and sustain their success. In his last four appearances on this side of the pond, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 40. He’s one of the best ball strikers on the Euro Tour and it feels like we are getting a steep discount given the field strength at the RBC Canadian Open. One of the reasons why I shy away from Euro golfers often is their lack of course history, but very few golfers in this field have ever played at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. We know EVR can go low and many are expecting a shootout given the soft conditions of the course.
Hasn't Missed Back-to-Back Cuts in Three Years
Bradley burned a lot of bridges with his missed cut last week, which will hopefully lower his ownership for the RBC Canadian Open. I’m always willing to overlook a single missed cut, especially for good ball strikers like Bradley. I feel good about a bounce-back performance, as Bradley hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts in more than three years. He’s ranked second in this field in strokes gained on approach and in proximity from the key ranges. I see him as a comparable play to Stenson. They should both hit fairways and if that happens, their irons will shine. It all comes down to whether or not they are going to make their 10-15 foot birdie putts.
Former Winner on this Course + Good Form
Furyk is a former winner on this course and he comes into the event in solid form. Plus, I owe it to him to write him up for the third straight week, as he was a part of my two big GPP wins over the last two events. Furyk is ranked ninth or better in this field in strokes gained total, strokes gained approach, proximity from the key ranges, and bogey avoidance. I play him at every event where being a bomber isn’t required to compete. It feels like he’s a little overpriced across the industry, but he’s in solid form and we are dealing with a weak field.
Iron Play is En Fuego
When it comes to iron play, no one on tour is better than Stenson right now. He has been dialed in, gaining 7.3, 6.1, 4.4, 7.4, and 4.4 strokes on approach over his last five ShotLink events. The fact that his best finish during that stretch is a T20 just goes to show how bad the rest of his game has been. This should be a great course for his game, as golfers will club down off the tee. The greens are small, but scrambling has been easier than tour average here in the past. Basically, this will come down to iron play and putting. The latter is a concern for Stenson, but he should give himself a ton of close birdie opportunities, especially since the greens are expected to be receptive.
Fading the Elites Before a Major
I never have a great feel on the motivation of elite golfers the week before a major. It’s not that Brooks, DJ, and Rory won’t try to win this week if they are in contention, but they are also more likely to throw in the towel and head to Pebble Beach if they get off to slow starts. Given the fact that we are on a short course that negates driving distance, I plan to start my lineups with Simpson. This is a second shot course where you have to make putts and avoid making bogeys when you miss the green. Simpson rates out well in strokes gained approach and in the key proximity ranges and he’s one of the best putters on tour. In my new hole breakdown statistic, he ranks second in this field. He’s been in solid form, he’s a good fit for the course, and we don’t have to worry about his motivation the week before a major.
Local Knowledge
Hughes is a local native who grew up in Ontario and has played this course plenty. He was quoted the other day as saying that a lot of PGA Tour players are asking him about the course. If we’re playing the knowledge angle, Hughes is clearly at the top of the pack. Hughes hasn’t had the best season and doesn’t grade out all that well statistically, but his recent form has looked a bit better. He finished 8th at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago, so perhaps he is getting ready to trend positively going forward. I’m ready to give him a look on a course that he knows, especially since he comes at a very affordable price tag.
The Salary Remains Affordable
Noren went into a very surprising tailspin starting about eight months ago, and he posted underwhelming result after underwhelming result for months. It was quite a shock for a player with as much upside as he has shown over the last few seasons. He still hasn’t gotten back to that kind of upside, but the trends are slowly turning. He has currently made five consecutive cuts on Tour, including at both majors (The Masters and the PGA Championship) that have been held this year. He ranks above field average in ball striking, but his approach game has lagged this season. That is the key. If he can continue the turnaround in that department, where he has improved in recent events, he has the overall talent and short game ability to contend here. I’ll take plenty of GPP shots, as this could be one of the final chances to get Noren at a discount. Buy low while you still can.
Team RBC For The Win
Furyk is the one of four “Team RBC” members that I am tagging as GPP options this week, as he is sponsored by RBC along with Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, and Adam Hadwin. The grizzled veteran never seems to get a lot of love in national circles any more, but Furyk has been playing steady golf this season. He had a rough stretch in late April and early May where he missed three cuts in a row, but he has otherwise made nine cuts in a row with six top 20 finishes in that stretch. That’s more upside than Furyk generally gets credit for, and he’s a fine fit for Hamilton. Despite his increasing price tag, Furyk is a solid play this week.
Great GPP Upside
Things get very interesting in a hurry this week, and Thomas is an intriguing case. He played terribly in pretty much every facet of his game a week ago, and rust was clearly there after he missed a few weeks due to injury. The fact that he was a late add to this field shows me that he is trying to get things figured out ahead of the U.S. Open, and this is a spot where I am interested in taking a shot on Thomas in GPP formats at low ownership. He was one of the most popular options in the field a week ago in his return, and those who got burned will be very nervous to go right back to the well. The talent and winning upside are there; it’s all a matter of shaking off the rust. I love the GPP leverage here.
Erik Van Rooyen makes it through U.S. Open qualifying ahead of this week's Canadian Open
Up and coming international player Erik Van Rooyen made waves in his first PGA Championship at Bethpage last month. The 29 year old South African is scheduled to play in this week’s Canadian Open and will look to continue his good play from not only at The PGA but also at today’s sectional U.S. Open Qualifier in Columbus Ohio. Van Rooyen earned one of the fourteen spots up for grab at a venue filled with fellow professional golfers. Assuming he will honor his commitment to play this week, Van Rooyen will look to build on what has already been a great season. In addition to his 8th place showing at Bethpage, Van Rooyen has 4 other top 15 or better finishes in 12 worldwide starts this season.
As reported by: USGA Website Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
Ten minutes until roster lock and there is no major news to report. Kevin Na is the only withdrawal news of the week, so if for some reason he is still in your builds please remove him. Storms will be a factor today, but this does not point to a tee time draw basis for the week. Perhaps the biggest piece of news to digest is what to do with Justin Thomas. Just two weeks removed from an early exit at The PGA, Thomas is in this week’s field and has a very affordable price tag on DraftKings. If he is 100% healthy and plays well he will be hard to fade at such a discount. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Justin Thomas