DFS Alerts
Joost Luiten stands out as a good value for the week
Currently ranked in the 73rd position in the world, European Tour player Joost Luiten will need a strong showing this week if he has plans of qualifying for the U.S. Open via his world ranking. The top 60 in the official world rankings as of June 10th will earn a spot into Pebble Beach in a few weeks. Already stateside due to his appearance in The PGA Championship, Luiten will make his first appearance in this event in the last seven years. Luiten is having a great year on The European Tour and really stands out as a mispriced player in comparison to his talent. With six worldwide top 25 or better finishes, this season and metrics that line up with Muirfield Village, another strong showing from Luiten at a great discount could be the difference in GPP’s for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Weather update for The Memorial
Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s event is up in the main forum. Like many of the other host cities of recent PGA Tour events, Dublin Ohio has not been without rain this spring. The very lush Muriefield Villiage should see more rain this weekend as Roth expects thunderstorms to be in play on Thursday. For now, it appears that there is no real edge in trying to stack a tee time wave based upon weather. The chance for isolated storms increases on Thursday as the day progresses making delays possible. In terms of DFS, we can look to perhaps favoring more of what we already like in terms of skill sets for the week. If more rain comes through the Dublin area then the course should play softer making Muirfield Village even more of a second shot course. If this happens then you can give a slight bump to great iron players for the week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Justin Suh set to make his professional debut
Due to his strong appreciation for the game of golf at the collegiate level, Jack Nicklaus has always invited strong young golfers into his field. One of those invitees is making his PGA debut at this week’s Memorial. Fresh off a fourth-place showing in the NCCA Championships played earlier this week in Fayetteville Arkansas, Justin Suh will play in his first tour event as a pro. Over the last few years, we have seen a strong trend between success as the highest level of college golf and a future on the PGA Tour. Due to the timing of his pro debut, Suh will most likely have to follow in the footsteps of other standout college golfers before him by earning a tour card through The Web.com tour next season. From a DFS perspective, this is a good week to take a flyer or two on Suh. With only a limited amount of opportunity to earn a card via starts the rest of this season, there is really not a ton of pressure on Suh this week. Outside of making his professional debut, Suh can easily have the mindset of treating this week as a learning process and attack the week without much fear of failure. As the number 2 ranked amateur in the world, Suh has more than enough talent to compete this week. Even if you don’t choose to take a shot on Suh this week, it’s great practice to start keeping tabs on a player that we should see on the Tour in the very near future.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Marc Leishman flying under the radar
Prior to a last-minute WD at The Byron Nelson, Marc Leishman had played well enough early this season to garnish interest at his price point. The combination of his WD after roster lock on Thursday of the Nelson and his poor play in the events after that have Leishman trending towards low ownership this week. If you value course history then Leishman at low projected ownership makes sense as a great pivot play in GPP’s for The Memorial. Leishman has gained 28 shots tee to green in his last five starts at Muirfield Village highlighted by 3 top 15 or better finishes. The addition of Leishman to your roster builds is not without risk, but his proven track record at this course makes him a great pivot off other popular golfers in his price range.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Justin Rose forced to make another caddie switch
Justin Rose took to social media on Tuesday to thank his longtime caddie Mark Fulcher for his 11 years of service. Fulcher underwent heart surgery in January and had returned to caddie for Rose at The Masters. After just a few tournaments of work, doctors have informed Fulcher that he needs to take a break from the stress of caddying to focus on his health. For now, the long partnership between Fulcher and Rose is on hold and Gareth Lord will return to action as Rose’s caddie. Rose has struggled over his last few starts, so it will be interesting to see if the change at caddie has any effect on his game. Lord carried the bag for Rose earlier this season including his win The Farmers in January. Rose has 7 top 10’s in his career at Muirfield VIllage including a win at the 2010 Memorial.
As reported by: Golf Digest Jason Kokrak looks to keep his made cut streak alive
Currently ranked inside the top 35 in the FedEx Cup standings, Jason Kokrak is in a great position to make a deep run in the playoffs. The 34-year-old Kokrak has played well enough this year to make a run at a couple of first in his career. Still winless on the PGA Tour, Kokrak has 10 top 25 finishes this year highlighted by a 2nd place finish at The Valspar. In addition to not having a win in his career, Kokrak has also never played his way into the tour championship. Entering this week with a perfect 16 for 16 cut record in tack, Kokrak will once again challenge the course history vs current form debate. Having only made one cut in his last 4 trips to The Memorial, Kokrak lacks the course history to make him a sure-fire play for the week. That being said, Kokrak has been a top 20 machine this season and is clearly playing some of the best golf of his career. With a high ranking in all of the important ball striking metrics, Kokrak on paper should have a good week at a course he has struggled on in the past.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Best Value Play in my Model for the Second Straight Week
My model seems to love Furyk each and every week. He’s had a very solid season overall and we can forgive him for his two recent missed cuts. He was in the bad weather draw at the RBC Heritage and then he missed the cut on the number at the PGA Championship, which was played on a bomber’s course. He bounced back nicely with a T13 last week and if we look past the last few years, he has excellent course history at this event. He’s won here and has a number of top 10 finishes. He’s one of the best on tour with his long irons and he’s very good at scrambling.
Are my Eyes Deceiving Me?
Sound the alarm! Adam Scott has gained strokes putting in seven straight ShotLink events, which is a personal career best. He’s not the most conventional putter on tour and he switches out putters like they are candy, but being able to keep the flagstick in the pin has clearly helped him on the greens. He’s always been one of the best ball strikers on tour and he’s coming off of a T8 at the PGA Championship. He’s made six straight cuts here, highlighted by a T4 back in 2014.
This Golfer has Gained Strokes on Approach in 15 Straight Events
Matsuyama is one of the best ball strikers on tour, so it’s no surprise that he’s won on this ball striker’s course in the past. He has gained strokes on approach in 15 consecutive ShotLink events and he’s gained strokes around the green in eight straight. He has one of the longest cut streaks on tour and this course obviously suits his eye. He’s a safe play with upside, which is exactly what we should be looking for in a golfer at this price point.
He's Not a Good Tipper, but he's an Excellent DFS Option
It’s hard not to like Kuchar this week. The only real argument against him is the ownership. He has the best course history of any golfer in the field. He’s played here nine times in the last 10 years, posting a win and four other top 10 finishes (without missing a single cut). He’s having a breakout season on tour and his statistics line up perfectly for this course. He’s ranked third in strokes gained approach, third in bogey avoidance, and eighth in the hole distance breakdown.
Four Top 10 Finishes in his Last Five Events
On paper, Cantlay feels a bit overpriced across the industry, but everything checks out. He’s one of the favorites to win at 15-to-1, his statistics are elite, he has been in great form, and he has good course history. In this field, he’s ranked eighth or better in strokes gained total, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, proximity, bogey avoidance, and the hole distance breakdown. He has four top 10 finishes in his last five events on tour and he finished in a tie for fourth at this event last season.
Sungjae Im looks to bounce back from consecutive missed cuts
With a handful of strong finishes early in the year, PGA Tour rookie Sunjae Im has already made an impact on tour. Currently ranked inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup race Im has an outside shot to make a deep run in the playoffs. Entering this week looking to make a bounce back from poor showings in his last two events, Im ranks well in our projection model in terms of Pt/$/K. Priced down in this strong field, Im has a good shot of posting a great week in terms of a high upside point per dollar play. While he is nowhere safe for cash games, Im has shown the propensity to play well enough to absolutely crush his price for the week. Muirfield Village is a second shot course that should fit Im’s game, and could be a great spot to get his game back on track.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Justin Thomas set to return from injury
Justin Thomas surprised many in the golf world with his choice to sit out and miss The PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Nursing a wrist injury from earlier in the season, Thomas decided not to push his return citing that he has to take the long term view into consideration. Thomas took to social media last week to show that he is back playing golf and appears ready to play in The Memorial this week. Having not played much golf since The Masters, it remains to be seen how sharp Thomas can be with very little golf played in the last 6 weeks. Thomas has finished inside the top 8 in his last two starts at The Memorial.
As reported by: Justin Thomas Twitter An Excellent Contrarian Play
Fowler is an intriguing tournament play given the fact that his ownership will undoubtedly be lower than the other studs this week. He is coming off a brutal final round at the PGA Championship followed by a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. However, Fowler missed the cut by just one stroke last week, and he has a solid recent history at this event, with finishes of 8th and 2nd here over his last two appearances. Despite an up and down season, he still ranks 26th on Tour in ball striking, and I expect a motivated performance as he chases a top finish. His par five scoring has lagged a bit this year, but the distance off the tee hasn’t been an issue. I’ll attribute some of that to variance, and while Fowler seems a bit unnecessary in cash game builds for the Memorial Tournament, the GPP appeal is definitely there.
Elite Point Per Dollar Upside
A stomach bug knocked him out early at the Wells Fargo Championship, but Woodland book-ended that tournament with cuts made at The Masters (32nd) and the PGA Championship (8th). That PGA Championship finish was punctuated with a Sunday two-under par 68 on a day where the course averaged around three shots over par. His statistics jump off the page for this course, as he ranks 4th on the PGA Tour in par five scoring and first in ball striking. That is after he finished 2nd on the Tour in ball striking a year ago. The price tag is a fair bit lower than I would have expected this week, and Woodland is one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the board.