DFS Alerts
Top Play of the Week on Paper
It’s hard to argue against DJ as the top play of the week. Yes, Brooks Koepka has won two straight U.S. Opens and is a big game hunter, but I’m not sure this course suits his game as well as the others have. Rory McIlroy is coming off of a win at the RBC Canadian Open, but every single one of his wins have come when he’s shot 12-under or lower. Basically, it’s hard to see him winning if this course plays difficult. DJ has amazing course history at Pebble Beach (including two wins), he has an amazing track record in U.S. Opens, and of the elites he has by far the best putting splits on poa. His ball striking continues to impress week in and week out and eventually, he is going to pick up his second major. He’s first in this field in bogey avoidance and he’s as good as anyone with his wedges. If paying all the way up, DJ is my guy this week.
Strong Professional Debut
Perhaps a complete unknown but let me bring you up-to-speed on this kid. He has only played two PGA Tour events this year with his maiden Professional start being last week at the Canadian Open where he finished 14th. Some key stats to highlight from his performance last week: T14 in GIR, T9 in DA, Top 10 in Approach with 47% of his approaches inside 24 ft. When trying to dissect his performance to how it fits here, he also hit 16/19 fairways when DD less than 270 yards, something I am also weighing this week due to the course length and rough. Morikawa is one of my favorite unknowns this week.
Profiles as Sneaky at Pebble
It seems now that the Ryder Cup is behind him, Furyk has resurfaced as the world-class player he was several years ago. I do take some pause with Furyk (in some ways more so his caddie Fluff) being as this his fourth event in a row, but generally you can’t predict a player’s level of fatigue so let’s not try. Furyk has been extremely consistent all year with his last 3 finishes being 13-33-27. These may not sound impressive but these all came on drastically different courses. Last week he gained another 5.8 strokes with his Approaches, was #1 in GIR and rates in the 89th percentile for my weighted Key Proximity model. As far as Pebble, Furyk finished 14th at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this year, granted he also played Spyglass and Monterey Peninsula during that event.
Irons Continue Striking Hot
Stenson was the first player that caught my eye in the mid-7k price range. For this event, as is the case for almost every Major, I weigh SG:App and wGIR% much higher than any other stat. The idea behind that is scoring will be higher (EVEN Par generally wins) and with the course becoming exceedingly difficult, the players who can hit the most greens will reduce their Bogey percentage. These are key stats every week but certainly more valuable during a Major It is probably no surprise that Stenson is a stud with his irons, but most people may not realize how much of a stud. In his last 5 events he has averaged 5.6 strokes gained on his approaches which is #1 on Tour by a pretty healthy margin. Due to his tendency to use 3-wood over Driver, he will actually receive a positive field bump this week with less guys being able to rely on their Driver to overpower the course.
Affordable Value
If you want a course-based value play, Walker is a fine pick for this U.S. Open. He ALWAYS seems to play better on the West Coast swing with lots of poa annua greens, as he tends to play well in Hawai’i and California. He has six top 12 finishes over the last nine editions of the Pro-Am event, so his comfort factor is clear. His form over the last few years has been a bit rocky as he has battled Lyme Disease, but he has started to show more consistency of late. He has logged three straight top 35 finishes, including a steady closing 68 in last week’s RBC Canadian Open. He doesn’t pop that much statistically, but the recent trends are positive, and the course fit is clearly there. You could consider him a “poor man’s Snedeker” in that realm.
Poa Annua Specialist
I’m putting my chips in the middle here. If pricing would have been released at the usual weekly time, I think you would see Snedeker with a price tag that’s $1,000 to $1,500 more expensive than it currently is. He is priced well below the average price we have to spend per golfer on every site, and his 40-to-1 Vegas odds to win are far better than what you will find with most others priced around him. Snedeker has two career wins at Pebble Beach and strolls in with three straight top 20’s on his resume, including a top five in Canada last week. Everything is trending in the right direction, and he is one of my favorite point per dollar options on the entire board, especially when you add in his comfort level on poa annua greens.
Big Game Hunter
He hasn’t been playing on the PGA Tour for all that long, but Schauffele has already earned a reputation as a golfer who shows up for big time events. He has finished 5th and 6th in his two previous U.S. Open appearances, and he currently ranks 18th on Tour in ball striking and 33rd in strokes gained on approach. He finished as a runner up at The Masters in April and also played well at the PGA Championship last month. If it’s a major, chances are that Xander will be in the mix. He’s an under-rated golfer in the national media; don’t make the mistake of sleeping on him in DFS.
Knocking On The Door
He can’t seem to win it, but boy can Jason Day knock on the door. He has finished inside the top 12 in six of the last seven events at Pebble Beach, with five of those being top six finishes. He also has five U.S. Open top tens since 2011 (despite missed cuts the last two years). When you consider his substandard recent form and the ever present injury risk, ownership is not going to be very high on Day. That’s even better news in GPP formats. Day is clearly comfortable on these poa greens, and he has consistently shown an ability to contend on this course. He’s also working with an elite caddie this week in Steve Williams, who previously worked with both Tiger Woods and Adam Scott in events where they had success at Pebble Beach. The risk is obvious, but I like the GPP upside with Day.
Eddie Pepperell to sit out U.S. Open
Eddie Pepperell has decided to skip the year’s third major with hopes that he can finish the rest of the season strong. As a player who competes on The European Tour more than the PGA Tour, Pepperell sited travel as one of his major concerns for the week. Pepperell’s replacement in the field has not been announced as of yet.
As reported by: Oxford Mail
Brandt Snedeker continues to play well after making a swing coach change
PGA Tour players make changes to their team of coaches more than most of realize. Only in rare cases are such moves items of news. Dustin Johnson, for instance, made headlines earlier last week when it became official that he is no longer working with Claude Harmon. Brandt Snedeker is back to playing great golf over the last month and much of his recent form reflects a choice he made to return to a former coach. Like many other players before him, Snedeker made a switch to a high profile coach with hopes of improving on his current success. Now back with his original coach Todd Anderson, Snedeker has been on fire of late and should be in a good spot to play well at Pebble Beach. With a price tag that has not caught up to his recent play, Snedeker should end up being one of the more popular sources of value on the slate. Snedeker has gained strokes tee to green in 11 of his last 12 rounds at Pebble Beach.
As reported by: Golf Channel Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
No major news to report this morning on what was a surprisingly slow week in terms of player movement. With the U.S. Open only one week away it’s not uncommon to see some players change their mind about playing in this week’s event prior to today. That being said Jason Dufner, Bronson Burgoon and K.H. Lee were the only players to withdraw this week. Good luck this week, ResultsDB will be up within a few minutes or roster lock.
Other tagged players: Bronson Burgoon PGA Tour veteran provides value as a course fit
Five-time PGA Tour winner Nick Watney heads into this week’s RBC Canadian Open with a bit of momentum. With much to be made about Hamilton Golf Club shaping up to be a second shot course, Watney figures to be in a good spot to play well once again. Watney has back to back strong showings at both Colonial and Muirfield Villiage, two courses that demand accurate iron play. Even in cash games, we need to dig deep to find value, and while Watney is not exactly flashy his current form points to a chance for another made cut and perhaps a top 25 or better finish.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Peter Malnati continues to gain steam as a value play
Fifth-year PGA Tour professional Peter Malnati has yet to finish inside the top 100 in the year-end FedEx Cup standings. Currently ranked in the 100th position in this year’s race Malnati has quietly put together a decent string of golf since February. Since the Genisis Open Malnati has made eight of nine cuts including 4 top 25 or better finishes. Ranked inside the top 20 in strokes gained approach of players in this week’s field, Malnati at a discount will pop in player models for the week. The need to find value in what appears to be a strong stars and scrubs roster construction week will lead to more action the way of players like Malnati. Looking to continue his good play of late Malnati makes sense as a form of salary relief on this slate.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Brandt Snedeker looks to build on great recent form
With the year’s third major just right around the corner, The PGA Tour will head north of the border to crown the open champion of Canadian Golf. Due to the rotating course history of this event, it’s nearly impossible to use course history as a guide for this year’s event. That being said, former Canadian Open Champion Brandt Snedeker has a solid track record at this event and heads into the week on the heels of back to back top 20 or better finishes. As a member of Team RBC, Snedeker will play in this event for the sixth time in the last eight years and will once again look to play well at this tournament. Priced near other popular golfers Snedeker will typically make the GPP only list for many in the industry this week. When that type of labeling happens it’s not uncommon to still see a lower than expected ownership projection for the player in question. With other “ safe “ players within his price range, Snedeker has a good chance of going under-owned for the week. With a game built around accuracy and timely putting, a trending low owned Snedeker has the makings of a great GPP pivot for this week’s RBC Canadian Open.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Alex Noren still searching for his breakthrough on American soil
With 10 career European victories on his resume, Alex Noren has that winning upside we look for in terms of DFS. Fueled by a couple of strong top end finishes Noren played well enough in 18 starts last season to make a deep run in The FedEx Cup Race. Unfortunately, the 2019 season has yet to yield those types of results leaving Noren in the position of having to play great golf the rest of the way just to make it into the first part of the playoff race. Noren comes into this week with a bit of momentum as he as gained strokes on the field tee to green in his last four starts. Priced down due to his less than stellar play this season, Noren stands out as a value play worth targeting this week. With a game that appears to be trending in the right direction in terms of metrics Noren becomes a player you can not only target for value but also for upside. With six of his ten European wins coming since the start of the 2016 season, Noren is a player with a strong pedigree making him an appealing value option for The RBC Canadian Open.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown