NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, October 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
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The NBA season gets underway with three games on opening night. While the short slates typically aren’t as fun, I’m certainly not complaining. If you are new to daily fantasy basketball or if you are looking to take your game to the next level, make sure to check out the RotoAcademy NBA Courses, which were written by some of the best players in the industry.
As always, we strive to bring you the very best content that we can, so if there is anything that you would like to see added to the Grind Down or if you have any feedback, feel free to post in the comments below.
Oh, and one final note. All of the statistics used in the Grind Down are from the 2014-15 season.
Detroit at Atlanta – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7, 197.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| Detroit | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.11 | Team Pace | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | K. Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 3 | 12 | 13 | 27 | 29 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have a new look this season. They basically swapped power forwards with Milwaukee, as Greg Monroe is now on the Bucks and Ersan Ilyasova is now in Detroit. The Pistons also acquired Marcus Morris in the offseason, and it appears that he will be their starting small forward on opening night. Detroit will start their season without Brandon Jennings, as he has yet to be cleared for contact after suffering an Achilles injury. They tentatively expect to have him back around Christmas, so look for Reggie Jackson to carry the load in his absence.
Atlanta Hawks Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (5 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (7 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (27 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.0 (10 of 32)
The Pistons draw a difficult matchup in their season opener. The Hawks were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, ranking 10th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The one weakness last season was their rebounding, as they had the sixth worst rebounding differential in the NBA.
The Pistons have the lowest team total on the schedule, but it’s hard to completely fade a team in such a small slate. The one player that stands out in this matchup is Andre Drummond. He had the third-highest rebounding rate of any player in the NBA last season and as I mentioned above, the Hawks were one of the worst in rebounding differential last season. With a lack of options at center, he is the chalk play at the position. Reggie Jackson is worth a look in tournaments, while Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris are both decent value plays.
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
FD: $9,000 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 21.9
FD FP/Min: 1.13 — DK FP/Min: 1.20
Secondary Plays
Reggie Jackson
FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 24.9
FD FP/Min: 0.93 — DK FP/Min: 1.01
Marcus Morris
FD: $5,700 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 19.0
FD FP/Min: 0.78 — DK FP/Min: 0.84
Ersan Ilyasova
FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 23.0 — Usage: 21.8
FD FP/Min: 0.86 — DK FP/Min: 0.91
Atlanta
The Hawks return four of their five starters from last season that led them to having the best record in the Eastern Conference. DeMarre Carroll is the one missing piece from last season, as he signed a contract with the Toronto Raptors. Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore are expected to fill the void at small forward and they are a nice complement to each other, as one is a defensive specialist and one is more of a scorer. The Hawks biggest acquisition in the offseason was Tiago Splitter, but he isn’t expected to have a major role in playing behind Al Horford.
Detroit Pistons Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (14 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (21 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (11 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 198.2 (20 of 32)
The Hawks draw a favorable matchup against a Pistons’ defense that was ranked 21st in defensive efficiency last season. While Marcus Morris is an improvement defensively, Ersan Ilyasova is not. The Hawks have an implied team total of 102.25 points, which is the third-highest of the six teams that are playing on opening night. There is some concern of a potential blowout, but we don’t have to worry about that on such a short slate.
The biggest problem with the Hawks last season was that they were one of the most balanced offenses in the NBA. It was hard to rely on any single player, as all five starters – plus a few bench players, had the ability to take over a game on any given night. That looks to be a problem again this season, especially with Dennis Schroder looking to take that next step. There is one terrific play that really stands out here. Kent Bazemore will draw the start at small forward and at a price close to minimum salary, he is one of the best values on the board. The rest of the starters are secondary options.
Elite Plays
Kent Bazemore
FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 18.0 — Usage: 15.7
FD FP/Min: 0.64 — DK FP/Min: 0.70
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap
FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 23.5
FD FP/Min: 1.02 — DK FP/Min: 1.10
Al Horford
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 22.5
FD FP/Min: 1.02 — DK FP/Min: 1.08
Jeff Teague
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 25.0
FD FP/Min: 1.00 — DK FP/Min: 1.08
Kyle Korver
FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 14.3
FD FP/Min: 0.69 — DK FP/Min: 0.77
Cleveland at Chicago – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -3, 198 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Williams-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Snell-Mirotic-Gasol
| Cleveland | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.30 | Team Pace | 98.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Tony Snell | Nikola Mirotic | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 7 | Opp. Season | 10 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 6 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers start their quest for an NBA Championship in Chicago. The Cavaliers were the ones that took out the Bulls last season, beating them in six games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Cavaliers will return with a similar squad from last season, although they did add Mo Williams for some depth at point guard. They will also have a healthy Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao, which should help bolster their front-court. Now, I know Dan Gilbert didn’t have much of a choice, but giving Tristan Thompson $82 million for five years seems a bit steep. Then again, that’s a small price to pay if they can bring a championship to Cleveland.
Chicago Bulls Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (9 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (11 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (5 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.4 (13 of 32)
The Bulls’ defense took a step back last season. The departure of the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau took a toll on their defense. They went from being a top-three defense in the 2013-14 season to being around the tenth best last season. Chicago still boasts above-average defense, but they are no longer an elite defensive team like the Warriors or Grizzlies. Their defensive efficiency could take another step back this season with Nikola Mirotic in the starting lineup. He obviously gives the Bulls more firepower on offense, but he is not nearly as good on defense as Joakim Noah.
The Cavaliers will be without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert in their season opener, which adds a little more offensive responsibility to LeBron James and Mo Williams. The big question on opening night is which superstar you are going to pay up for. Anthony Davis is locked in as my favorite play in the slate, with LeBron James and Stephen Curry trailing close behind. Mo Williams is an interesting value play here. He should draw the start for Kyrie Irving and he is affordably priced on both FanDuel ($6,000) and DraftKings ($4,900).
Elite Plays
LeBron James
FD: $11,000 — DK: $9,800
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 32.4
FD FP/Min: 1.23 — DK FP/Min: 1.42
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 21.6
FD FP/Min: 0.95 — DK FP/Min: 1.03
Mo Williams
FD: $6,000 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 24.8
FD FP/Min: 0.89 — DK FP/Min: 0.98
J.R. Smith
FD: $5,700 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 19.1
FD FP/Min: 0.72 — DK FP/Min: 0.79
Chicago
The case can be made that the Bulls have just as much talent as the Cavaliers, but they just can’t seem to get past any Lebron James-led team in the playoffs. They are hoping for a different result this season and hey, if the Cubs can make it to the NLCS, who’s to say that the Bulls can’t make a run at the championship? The Bulls locked up budding superstar, Jimmy Butler, in the offseason and they return all five starters from a season ago.
Cleveland Cavaliers Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (13 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (20 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 1.9 (8 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 193.8 (9 of 32)
Looking at the statistics above, it wouldn’t appear as if the Cavaliers had an elite defense last season, but those numbers are a bit misleading. The Cavaliers completely turned their season around after the All-Star break and were arguably a top five defense during that stretch of play. If Tuesday night had a full slate games, I would take more of a cautious approach against a defense like the Cavaliers, but with only three games on the schedule, there are a few options on my radar.
This game may not have the highest total, but it is expected to stay close and the Bulls actually have a decent team total of 101 points. Chicago will not have Mike Dunleavy for this game, as he is dealing with a back injury. Tony Snell is expected to start in his place and for the price, he makes a nice value play. Fred Hoiberg announced that Nikola Mirotic will start alongside Pau Gasol in the frontcourt. After a strong preseason, he makes an intriguing play right out of the gate. Jimmy Butler is also an elite play here. He plays as many minutes as anyone in the NBA and he will likely be priced well above $8,000 before too long.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler
FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 39.0 — Usage: 21.5
FD FP/Min: 0.90 — DK FP/Min: 0.96
Nikola Mirotic
FD: $5,500 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 20.0 — Usage: 23.1
FD FP/Min: 0.97 — DK FP/Min: 1.00
Secondary Plays
Derrick Rose
FD: $8,100 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 31.0
FD FP/Min: 0.93 — DK FP/Min: 1.07
Pau Gasol
FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 24.4
FD FP/Min: 1.15 — DK FP/Min: 1.21
Tony Snell
FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 20.0 — Usage: 14.2
FD FP/Min: 0.54 — DK FP/Min: 0.56
New Orleans at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Perkins
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| New Orleans | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 112.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 104.40 | Team Pace | 105.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Kendrick Perkins | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 19 | Opp. Season | 13 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 18 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans enter the season the way that they have basically played the last few years – injured. Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole, and Omer Asik have all been ruled out for their season opener and Jrue Holiday is on a 15-minute restriction. That leaves the rest of the point guard minutes to be divided between Nate Robinson and newly signed Ish Smith. It’s not all bad new for New Orleans though, as they have a healthy Anthony Davis who can, should, and most likely will be the leading point getter in daily fantasy basketball this season.
Golden State Warriors Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (15 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.2 (1 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (12 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 192.8 (7 of 32)
The Pelicans draw a difficult matchup against the Warriors, who had the best defensive efficiency in the NBA last season. While that’s not appealing for fantasy purposes, Golden State was also one of the fastest-paced teams, which helped offset their defensive efficiency. They ended up allowing 99.9 points per game, which was right around the league average. Anyway you slice it, this is a below-average matchup for fantasy purposes.
Even though New Orleans is the largest underdog on the schedule, they still have the second-highest team total at 102.75. With all of the injuries to the team, we can expect big minutes from Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, and Dante Cunningham. Davis is easily my favorite fantasy option on the board, as he is a fantasy godsend. You don’t want to miss out on one of his monster fantasy outings. Eric Gordon will lock horns with a solid defender in Klay Thompson, but he should play a lot of minutes and have a high usage rate with Tyreke Evans out.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
FD: $11,200 — DK: $10,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 27.6
FD FP/Min: 1.31 — DK FP/Min: 1.39
Eric Gordon
FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 19.8
FD FP/Min: 0.68 — DK FP/Min: 0.75
Secondary Plays
Ryan Anderson
FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 23.0
FD FP/Min: 0.77 — DK FP/Min: 0.83
Dante Cunningham
FD: $4,200 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 11.2
FD FP/Min: 0.52 — DK FP/Min: 0.54
Nate Robinson
FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 14.0 — Usage: 23.5
FD FP/Min: 0.78 — DK FP/Min: 0.84
Golden State
The defending champion Warriors open their season at home against another up and coming team in the Pelicans. Golden State brings back basically their same roster as last season, with the exception of David Lee. There isn’t a ton to say here other than the Warriors look poised to make a run at back-to-back championships.
New Orleans Pelicans Defense (2014)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (11 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (22 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.0 (7 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.0 (11 of 32)
The Warriors draw a decent matchup against the Pelicans. Their defense was the opposite of the Warriors last season, as they weren’t great on defense, but they played at such a slow pace that they were able to hold their opponents to the 11th lowest points allowed per game.
The good news is that the Warriors are playing at home and they easily have the highest team total on the board. The bad news is that this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, especially when you consider how short-handed the Pelicans are. Stephen Curry is a borderline elite play at point guard. He can catch fire at any time and he has a high usage rate in the NBA’s best offense. The other starters are in play here, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry
FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 28.3
FD FP/Min: 1.27 — DK FP/Min: 1.41
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson
FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 27.5
FD FP/Min: 0.99 — DK FP/Min: 1.05
Draymond Green
FD: $7,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 17.1
FD FP/Min: 0.97 — DK FP/Min: 1.09
Andrew Bogut
FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 13.3
FD FP/Min: 0.96 — DK FP/Min: 0.99
Harrison Barnes
FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 14.9
FD FP/Min: 0.71 — DK FP/Min: 0.77