10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 4-25-16
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, April 25, 2016.
1. Since entering the league on May 12 of last season, Noah Syndergaard has thrown 152 sliders. Batters have managed four singles off of it. That’s it. That’s a .091/.091/.000 slash line on the pitch, which at an average velocity of 90.91 mph, is the fastest recorded slider since PITCHf/x data has been available. He’s thrown it 23, 22, and 21 times in his three 2016 starts, up from last year, when he used it infrequently, and never more than 17 times per game. Have fun with that, Reds.
2. One other note about Syndergaard – the Mets host the Reds on Monday, and he’s been significantly better at home throughout his short career. Sure, the sample might not be large enough to draw any surefire conclusions, but for what it’s worth, he’s allowed a .242 wOBA at CitiField while allowing a much more pedestrian, much more un-Thorlike .306 wOBA in other parks.
3. Zack Cozart is currently enjoying sitting atop of Major League Baseball with a minuscule 2.8 K% against right-handed pitchers through his first 36 PAs of 2016. That’s a grand total of one strikeout…but you can see where I’m going with this. Cozart’s career .191 batting average against the slider says the Reds leadoff hitter could be Syndergaard’s first victim. I’m predicting that Cozart doubles his strikeout total for the season against RHP when Syndergaard sits him down for the first out of the game.
4. Manny Machado is the only player in Major League Baseball to record a hit in every one of his team’s games this season. True to his history, he’s actually been better off this year when he hasn’t had the platoon advantage, recording 24 of his 27 hits against righties and posting a league-best 294 wRC+ in that split. For his career, Machado owns a 126 wRC+ against righties and a 101 wRC+ against lefties. On Monday, he faces Tampa Bay righty Chris Archer.
5. Chris Archer has given up five home runs to right-handed batters in 11.2 IP in 2016. In 97.1 IP to same-handed hitters in 2015, he allowed 10 home runs.
6. Since returning from the disabled list on August 26 of last season, Rick Porcello has recorded 7+ strikeouts in eight of the eleven games he’s started. Prior to that DL stint, he’d had 15 such games in his entire career, dating all the way back to 2009. Against a Braves team who has the reputation of being somewhat stingy with the strikeouts, but who this season have fanned at a 21.7% clip (the 12th most in MLB), Porcello makes for an interesting mid-tier pitching option on Monday.
7. Since the start of 2013, there have been 171 pitchers to log more than 100 innings of work against left-handed batters. Of those 171 pitchers, Pittsburgh’s Jeff Locke ranks dead last with a 10.7% strikeout rate. Locke visits Coors on Monday, where he’ll take on Carlos Gonzalez and company. Gonzalez, with his .197 average, 27.7 K%, and 24 wRC+ against lefties since the start of 2015, is always tough to roster against when he doesn’t have the platoon advantage. But there’s a chance Locke only lasts a few innings (because, you know, Coors) and Gonzalez gets 2-3 PAs against one of Pittsburgh’s righty bullpen arms. Plus, Gonzalez might see a depressed ownership given the lack of a platoon edge. It’s a gamble, but it could be an interesting way of gaining exposure to Coors at a reduced ownership.
8. Since the start of 2015, Jordan Zimmermann has started 36 games. In 26 of those games, he’s walked one or fewer batters. The only player during that time frame with more such games is Bartolo Colon, with 27. On Monday, Zimmermann faces an Athletics team that ranks last in MLB this year with a 6.4% walk rate.
9. “Start Paul Goldschmidt at home against lefties” is a DFS truism nearly as commonly cited as “If you can pay up for Kershaw, pay up for Kershaw,” and, “Never, ever play Chris Colabello, under any circumstances.” When the lefty in question is the Cardinals’ Jaime Garcia, though, it’s another story. Garcia is lethal against righties, and since the start of 2015, his .243 wOBA in that split ranks sixth in MLB (minimum 100 IP). The five players he trails are all Cy Young winners (Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer). Chase Field is nice, but there are other favorable ballparks to target on Monday – fade the Diamondbacks.
10. Smart DFS players recognize a bargain when they see one. And given that Blue Jays hitters have been priced as if they’re facing Chris Sale when they’re actually facing Miguel Gonzalez sounds like a bargain to me. Sale was scratched on Sunday afternoon, leaving the former Oriole to make a spot start. Gonzalez was equally terrible versus lefties and righties last year, allowing a .330+ wOBA and 1.30+ HR/9 to each handedness of hitter. One curious BvP note: Edwin Encarnacion has only managed three hits in 25 career at-bats against Gonzalez. Each of those hits have been homers, though.