10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 21st
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, August 21st.
1. Take a look at Alex Wood’s strikeout rate by month over the past four months (I’m leaving out April, as he was only a part-time starter at that point):
May – 36.6%
June – 28.1%
July – 22.6%
August – 15.6%
Here are a few pitchers with better strikeout rates than Wood’s 16.3% since the All-Star break (and if you’re squeamish, you may want to skip to the next section because this isn’t pretty): Clayton Richard, Travis Wood, Sal Romano, Trevor Williams, Ivan Nova. Wood has been getting touched up recently, thanks in part to batters doing more damage to his two-seam fastball – before the break, he’d allowed a .261 wOBA on that pitch, and that number has jumped to .411 in the second half. None of this inspires confidence in Alex Wood as a chalk starting pitcher on Monday, but here we are. It’s a slate devoid of slam dunk pitching options, and the matchup does seem “safe” given the Pirates lack of offensive firepower, especially lately, with just 26 home runs over the past 30 days (second-fewest in MLB). However, Wood’s falling strikeout rate coupled with the Pirates’ high-contact approach (19.6 K% vs. LHP) means that taking an underweight approach in tournaments may be the way to go.
2. In his last start, Giants righty Chris Stratton pitched a gem, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Nationals and racking up 10 strikeouts in the process. In that start, Stratton allowed a .192 xwOBA, third-highest of any Giants pitcher in a game this year (min. 50 pitches), with Jeff Samardzija owning the top two slots on the list. Neither Madison Bumgarner nor Johnny Cueto have allowed less than a .192 xwOBA in any game this year. To be clear, Stratton has never displayed anything close to elite strikeout stuff in the minors or in his brief time in the majors, and he’s not likely to reach double figures in punchouts again this season. However, if he’s ever going to come close, his matchup on Monday against the Brewers gives him the best chance, as Milwaukee strikes out 25.7% of the time against righties this year, most in MLB. And it’s not getting any better: in the past 30 days, that number is up to 27.4%. Stratton is still largely an unknown, which makes him better suited for tournaments, but in AT&T Park, which severely suppresses power, the blowup risk is mitigated somewhat, and his low salary ($6,800 at DraftKings, $6,000 at FanDuel) will allow you to load up on bats.
3. In his career prior to 2017, Gerrit Cole had allowed 16 home runs in 271 1/3 innings pitched to left-handed batters; in 2017, Cole has allowed 15 home runs in 67 1/3 innings of work against lefties. With a career-high 37.7% hard hit rate, it’s true that Cole is getting smashed by lefties this year. But it’s also true that Cole has been on the wrong side of home run variance. Here are his career HR/FB rates by year since he debuted in 2013:
2013 – 4.5%
2014 – 8.3%
2015 – 5.3%
2016 – 5.8%
2017 – 19.7%
In PNC Park, and likely facing a Bellinger-less Dodgers offense, Cole may be in a better spot than he appears at first glance, especially when you consider that…
4. Since the All-Star break, Cole is one of two pitchers with a 25.0%+ strikeout rate and a sub-23.0% hard hit rate, joining Charlie Morton (which is pretty interesting in and of itself, even though Morton isn’t on Monday’s slate). Cole has been elite at generating soft contact as of late, and while the boost in strikeouts (he’s at 21.9% for the year) is in a small sample, making it hard to know if it’ll stick. But on a thin pitching slate, going six innings, getting 5-6 strikeouts, and allowing only a few earned runs might be enough. Cole is capable of that type of outing, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
5. The Texas Rangers have a 28.1% strikeout rate on the road against left-handed pitchers; that’s the second-highest rate in MLB (trailing the Brewers at 28.8%). Just to contextualize that a bit: on the season, only 13 qualified hitters have strikeout rates above 28.1%, and that’s the Rangers’ strikeout rate as a team when they’re away from home and facing a lefty. Texas can get very left-handed, with some of its most dangerous hitters (Gallo, Choo, Odor, Mazara) hitting from the left side, and it is a team that is clearly aided by their home venue (team wOBA of .354 at home ranks second in MLB; team wOBA of .297 ranks second-to-last). All of this bodes well for Tyler Skaggs, who opened as a moderate home favorite against Cole Hamels.
6. Coming out of the All-Star break, Manny Machado was one of the most obvious choices for positive regression in MLB, and he’s delivering in a big way. Check out his isolated power by month this year:
April – .200
May – .200
June – .220
July – .163
August – .392
He’s got eight home runs against just four strikeouts this month. And while he’s no longer a bargain, he does find himself in an elite matchup on Monday at home against Oakland righty Chris Smith. Smith has allowed nine homers this year, and eight of them have gone to righties, which, because of the small sample, makes for a hilarious HR/9 split (0.51 HR/9 to LHB, 3.32 HR/9 to RHB). Given the lack of high-priced pitching, it shouldn’t be difficult to fit in a few Orioles bats, and it all starts with Machado.
7. Nelson Cruz has a .480 wOBA and .427 ISO against four-seam fastballs this year, ranking second in MLB behind only Paul Goldschmidt (.518 wOBA, .432 ISO) in both categories. On Monday, Cruz gets a huge positive park shift in Atlanta’s SunTrust Park, and he’ll take on Braves righty Mike Foltynewicz, who throws his four-seamer 35.1% of the time to righties, more than any other pitch. While “Cruz versus a lefty” has long been a spot that DFS players love targeting, Cruz has actually been better against righties this year (152 wRC+ vs. RHP, 145 wRC+ vs. LHP). Without the platoon advantage, he’s unlikely to draw massive ownership, but in this hitting environment, he’s more than capable of sending one to the seats. He’s an excellent pivot off some of the other high-end hitters who are likely to draw more ownership (Trout, J.D. Martinez).
8. Since 2016, Ryon Healy is one of seven players (min. 170 PA) with a .600+ slugging percentage against left-handers, joining J.D. Martinez, Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, Brian Dozier, Trevor Story, and Wilmer Flores. Healy appears to be evolving as a hitter, as he’s swung at far fewer pitches outside the zone since the All-Star break; his 36.3% chase rate in the first half was 20th-highest among qualified hitters in MLB, while his 30.7% chase rate in the second half is 83rd-highest. Not surprisingly, this has resulted in fewer strikeouts: Healy’s 26.7% strikeout rate from the first half has fallen to a much more palatable 17.1% since the break, making him much more playable in cash games (especially at his always-low price). On Monday, he and the rest of the Athletics get a massive ballpark boost, going to hitter-friendly Camden Yards to take on Wade Miley and his .369 wOBA to righties.
9. Rafael Devers has recorded an extra-base hit in 11 of his first 20 games as a major leaguer; since 2000, only Jeff Francouer (12 such games) hit for extra bases more often than Devers in his first 21 games. Devers hasn’t taken much time to adjust to big-league pitching, and on Monday, he faces scuffling Indians righty Mike Clevinger, whose high .345 wOBA against lefties puts Devers (and rookie teammate Andrew Benintendi) firmly in play in tournaments.
10. In 2017, the Cleveland Indians have an .827 OPS against fly ball pitchers; only the Houston Astros (.848) have been better. This makes Cleveland an interesting under-the-radar stacking option, especially against Eduardo Rodriguez, who owns a fly ball rate north of 40.0% and higher-than-average hard hits to both lefties and righties this year. Among Indians batters who have excelled against fly ball pitchers this year are Edwin Encarnacion (team-leading .340 ISO), Jose Ramirez (slashing .303/.346/.610 with 15 of his 18 HRs coming off fly ballers), and Carlos Santana (.244 ISO, 13.3% strikeout rate).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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