10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 28th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, August 28th.
1. This season, Max Scherzer has allowed right-handed batters to hit .125 against him; that’s the lowest batting average allowed to righties in a season in MLB history (min. 80 IP). Of course, there are strikeouts, too – if the season ended today, Scherzer’s 44.6% strikeout rate to righties would be the best of any qualified since 2002 (and possibly much further back – FanGraphs’ platoon splits for strikeout rate only reach back to 2002). Scherzer has been, for all intents and purposes, unhittable against righties this year, which sets him up well in a matchup against the righty-heavy Marlins. It’s likely that Miami only has three or four righties in their lineup (when they last faced a righty, only Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich, and Tomas Telis cracked the starting lineup).
2. Corey Kluber has allowed home runs in eight consecutive games; that’s the third-longest active streak in MLB. And…it doesn’t matter. During those eight games, he’s been below 23 DraftKings points just once, and he’s been over 40 DraftKings points three times. On Monday, he’s in a tough matchup against the Yankees and their .340 wOBA (second-best in MLB) against right-handed pitching. It didn’t bother him the last time he faced this Yankees, on August 3rd, when he posted a complete game three-hitter with 11 strikeouts and just one earned run. Because he’s in a worse ballpark against a better team facing a better pitcher, Kluber is slightly more risky than Max Scherzer. However, it’s tough to fault anyone who prefers Kluber given his recent dominance.
3. Since July 19th, only two pitchers have a 1.80 ERA or better and a 23.5%+ strikeout rate: James Paxton, and Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has quietly been a steady part of Boston’s rotation, and while his matchup against the Blue Jays (21.4% K rate, .320 wOBA, .166 ISO, 97 wRC+) isn’t perfect, Pomeranz’s price at DraftKings ($8,800) is reasonable enough that he makes for a fine SP2 consideration on Monday.
4. Time for a game of blind resume! Take a look at the table below, which shows a few DFS-relevant stats for two pitchers this year at their home ballparks:
| Stat (Home, 2017) | Pitcher A | Pitcher B |
|---|---|---|
| IP | 82.1 | 82 |
| ERA | 1.86 | 1.87 |
| wOBA | .248 | .273 |
| HR/9 | 0.66 | 0.88 |
| K% | 20.3 | 24.1% |
| Hard% | 26.6% | 29.9% |
Except for a few minor differences, these two pitchers are essentially the same. While Pitcher B has a slightly higher strikeout rate, he also allows more hard contact, which has led to a slightly higher wOBA and home run rate. They’re very similar, though, and in fact, they rank number one and two in MLB in home ERA among qualified pitchers. Pitcher B is Gio Gonzalez, maybe not an elite arm in DFS, but certainly one who can be highly owned in the right matchup. Pitcher A is rarely popular, in any matchup. It’s San Diego’s Jhoulys Chacin, who has an elite matchup against the Giants (83 wRC+ vs. RHP this year, second-worst in MLB). His strikeouts are certainly capped (he’s faced the Giants three times this year and fanned 5, 4, and 4 batters), he does free up some salary to allow you to fit in Coors Field bats.
5. Speaking of Coors Field bats, here is the complete list of Rockies players with a higher home ISO than the .414 Blackmon has posted this year (min. 200 PA): Larry Walker, with a .418 ISO in 1999. That’s it. Blackmon’s 1.275 OPS at home ranks in the top 25 in MLB history, and if you expand the minimum plate appearances to 275 (the number Blackmon currently has), Blackmon’s .806 slugging at home ranks 11th in MLB history. When you pair Blackmon’s home field dominance with Jordan Zimmermann’s .365 wOBA and insane 41.6% hard hits against lefties this year (sixth-highest of 95 qualified starters in MLB), it’s clear that Blackmon is one of the top overall plays on the slate.
6. Here are Jonathan Schoop’s hard hit rates against left-handed pitching by year, starting in 2014 (he played in 2013, but had only a few plate appearances):
2014 – 23.1%
2015 – 25.7%
2016 – 20.9%
2017 – 39.6%
He’s also carrying a 38.5% fly ball rate in 2017, when prior this year, he’d never been above 31.8%. Schoop has clearly changed his approach against lefties, and to great success. On Monday, he’s a top option at second base against Seattle lefty Marco Gonzalez, who, with a .405 wOBA, has shown no ability to get right-handed batters out in his brief MLB career.
7. Since 2015, only two qualified shortstops have posted a .350+ wOBA and a .200+ ISO against left-handed pitching: Carlos Correa (no surprise there), and … Marcus Semien. Semien batted leadoff on Saturday against left-hander Cole Hamels, and there’s a chance he’ll be at the top of Oakland’s lineup on Monday against Andrew Heaney. Heaney has a decent pedigree as a prospect, but he’s given up nine earned runs (including seven homers) in his first two starts off the disabled list. Semien, along with the other low-priced A’s righties (Ryon Healy, Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder, to name a few) all make for excellent salary-saving options on a slate that features both high-end pitching and Coors Field.
8. Rhys Hoskins just keeps hitting home runs; last night, he went yard again, making him the fastest player in MLB history to record 11 home runs. He’s now homered in five straight games, tying the Phillies’ franchise record (with Mike Schmidt, Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu, and Dick Allen) for most consecutive games with a home run. Hopkins’s price tag has skyrocketed across the industry (and rightfully so), and although it’s scary, it may be time to start considering a fade. Even despite Hoskins’s recent success, it’s difficult to pay top dollar when players like Blackmon, Justin Upton, and Nelson Cruz are all in equally good spots.
9. Since 2015, only three batters (min. 1000 PA) have a 39.0%+ hard hit rate to go along with a sub-18.0% strikeout rate: Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and … Adam Lind. Lind obviously isn’t in the same class as Votto or Miggy, but he makes better contact than most people think given how much power he possesses against righties. He’ll likely be slotted in the heart of a depleted Nationals team, and while it’s hard to envision the Nationals putting up a massive run total, Jose Urena’s minuscule 12.3% strikeout rate to lefties (ranked 91st of 95 qualified pitchers) means that Lind should have no trouble putting the ball in play. Rostering Lind is not a terrible way of saving a few bucks to pay up for high-end pitching.
10. And the Matt Chapman Barrel Watch continues! Chapman barreled up another ball on Sunday (and for those unfamiliar, a “barrel” is a Statcast term given to balls his with essentially the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle), his 15th since the All-Star break. Only eight players (Upton, Smoak, Judge, Donaldson, Khris Davis, Gallo, Cruz, Stanton) have more during that span. I’ve written up Chapman in this #10 slot a number of times, but DraftKings has his price down to $2,700, making him an excellent value for cash games in a plus matchup against Angels lefty Andrew Heaney.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
Follow Josh Cole on Twitter, where I post interesting stats whenever I dig them up!