10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 4th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, August 4th.
1. The Philadelphia Phillies offense has put up more than three earned runs against a left-handed starter on just six occasions in 2016 – that’s tied for the fewest in MLB. Ironically, two of those games came against one of the best lefties in the majors, Madison Bumgarner (the others were Robbie Ray, Brandon Finnegan, and Wei-Yin Chen, twice). Given the plus matchup against the Phillies, new San Francisco Giant Matt Moore is what passes for a safe cash game play on a horrendous day for pitching.
2. How good was J.A. Happ’s month of July? In five starts, he allowed a total of five earned runs including just two homers while maintaining a 12.06 K/9. Only four players in MLB history have had single months with those numbers – Clayton Kershaw (June 2014), Johan Santana (April 2009), Pedro Martinez (September 1999, April 2000, and July 2002), and Roger Clemens (August 1998). Despite their righty-heavy lineup, the Astros are a bottom-10 team in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and they fan at a 23.5% (fourth-highest in MLB). For his part, Happ has actually preferred facing righties this year (.293 wOBA, 22.2 K% vs. RHB, .304 wOBA, 15.3 K% vs. LHB).
3. You don’t often see platoon splits as extreme as A.J. Griffin’s. Against lefties, his .368 wOBA is 13th-highest in MLB; against righties, his .253 wOBA is 16th-best among starters (min. 30 IP), just a shade better than Stephen Strasburg’s .255 mark. His 2.38 HR/9 to lefties is third-worst in MLB; his .27 HR/9 to righties is fifth-best (again, min. 30 IP). Perhaps most strikingly, though, is his 45.5% hard contact rate to lefties, which is highest in MLB. All this points to at least one home run for Chris Davis. Except that…
4. Chris Davis has the lowest slugging (.197) among qualified hitters in MLB over the past 30 days.
5. Since June 1st, Tyler Chatwood has walked 34 batters over nine starts (6.51 BB/9!!!). He’s walked 34 batters in those nine starts. There are 35 qualified starters in MLB who have walked fewer than 34 batters all year. While the Dodgers will almost certainly roll out a lefty-heavy lineup, don’t shy away from the right-handers (Justin Turner, Howie Kendrick, as Chatwood been weaker without the platoon advantage at home this year (.331 wOBA versus lefties at home, .405 wOBA versus righties at home). He does his best to keep the ball on the ground, carrying an elite 61.8% ground ball rate versus lefties at home. Ultimately, the Dodgers, both righties and lefties, should be able to put up runs in bunches on Thursday, especially if Chatwood can’t get the walks under control.
6. One player who won’t be negatively impacted by Tyler Chatwood ground ball tendencies to lefties is Joc Pederson. Since 2015, Pederson has a .275 ISO against ground ball pitchers – that ranks fifth among all MLB players with at least 200 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers, trailing only Edwin Encarnacion, Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista, and Anthony Rizzo.
7. Joey Votto has drawn 24 walks in the past 30 days…half as many as the entire Arizona Diamondbacks team (48). He won’t likely be walking much on Thursday, though, as he faces off against Mike Leake, owner of MLB’s second-highest contact rate (85.3%).
8. Opposite Mike Leake in the same game, Brandon Finnegan has allowed 22 home runs this year…and 21 of them have been from right-handed batters. Finnegan’s 2.07 HR/9 is currently second-highest in history of Great American Ball Park (min. 10 GS) – only Bronson Arroyo has allowed homers at a higher rate in a single season, posting a 2.24 HR/9 in 2011. Similarly to Wednesday, when another young lefty, Cody Reed, was on the mound for Cincinnati, Cardinals righties like Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, and Matt Holliday will be popular, high-upside options if you choose to play the early (non-Coors) slate.
9. Drew Pomeranz walk rate has decreased in every month of the 2016 season (12.8% in April, 11.9% in May, 8.2% in June, 6.8% in July). Sure, his tenure in Boston hasn’t gone as planned thus far, but the main slate on Thursday is devoid of any reliable pitching, and Pomeranz does get a ballpark boost, as he’ll take on the Mariners in pitcher-friendly SafeCo Field.
10. Max Kepler and Matt Joyce are both averaging a HR every 13.9 at-bats in 2016. David Ortiz is averaging a HR every 14.2 at-bats in 2016.