10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, July 19th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, July 19th.
1. Justin Verlander’s strikeout rate over the past five games is 27.6 percent, a mark that would be excellent for most pitchers, but for Verlander, represents the lowest rate of any five-game stretch in over a year (see below).
It’s probably just a blip – his velocity and pitch mix remain pretty much unchanged over this stretch – and he’ll probably pop off a 10-strikeout game very soon. The dip in strikeouts gives just enough caution to look elsewhere at SP1 in cash games, though, especially given his price tag and the glut of other high-end pitchers in great matchups on Friday’s slate. Guys like…
2. Jacob deGrom, who in 2019 is throwing more four-seam fastballs than ever, up to 52.3 percent. That’s an increase of nearly 10 percentage points off his 42.8 percent four-seamers last season. And wouldn’t you know it, his opponent on Friday, the San Francisco Giants, are terrible at hitting four-seamers. Worst in MLB, in fact, with a .321 team wOBA against the pitch that ranks below even the likes of the Marlins (.326) and Orioles (.325). There’s very little chance this Giants team is able to do anything against deGrom. Particularly at DraftKings and Yahoo, where you get significant savings in dropping down from Verlander to deGrom ($800 at DraftKings; $8 at Yahoo), I’ll side with the cheaper deGrom for cash games.
3. Shane Bieber has 11+ K/9 and sub-2.00 BB/9; here’s the short list of qualified pitchers to do that in a season, per the Play Index at Baseball Reference:
Anytime you’re on a list with Pedro Martinez, Chris Sale, and Max Scherzer, it’s telling. Thanks to his ever-increasing strikeouts and his refusal Bieber has vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the better pitchers in MLB. The walks are particularly important for Bieber given his tendency to give up hard contact (42.6% hard-hit rate in 2019) and home runs (1.29 HR/9 in 2019). They’re even more critical in a matchup with the Royals, who lead MLB with 91 steals; any walk issued could very easily be the equivalent of an extra-base hit. With four games of 10+ strikeouts in his lat 11 starts, Bieber has as much upside as any pitcher on this slate, and he could go a bit underowned (at time of writing, our ownership projections have him at just 4% at FD, 9% at DK, and 2% at Yahoo). He’s the definition of a great leverage play for GPPs when many players will look elsewhere at starting pitcher.
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu has forced batters to swing outside the zone 36.6 percent of the time, fourth-best in MLB behind only Verlander, Strasburg, and deGrom. He’s improved his chase rate by 5.2 percent, which represents the fourth-largest gain from 2018 to 2019. It’s one of the reasons his walk rate is so insanely low (at 2.5%, it’s the lowest in MLB among qualifiers). If he continues at this pace, he’ll be the first pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995 to issue fewer than 1.0 BB/9 and hold a sub-2.00 ERA (and he’s even got some wiggle room, with his current 1.78 ERA and 0.85 BB/9). Even better, Ryu is pitching at Dodger Stadium, where’s he’s got a 1.86 ERA in 198 ⅓ innings since 2018. And even better, he’s facing the Miami Marlins, a team that, against lefties, ranks 29th in wOBA (.287), 30th in ISO (.125), and 28th in wRC+ (78). (If you made it to the end of that previous sentence without glazing over it, congratulations. Saying “the Marlins are bad” is about as self-evident a statement you can make in DFS.). While Ryu may not have the strikeout upside of Verlander, deGrom, or Bieber, if he allows more than a handful of scattered hits and more than a run or two, it’ll be a shock.
5. In 21 plate appearances ending on his four-seam fastball, Brendan McKay has allowed just two hits, both singles. The .083 wOBA on the pitch is the lowest of any pitcher who has thrown at least 100 four-seamers. Of course this is a ridiculously small sample, but it’s encouraging to see McKay throwing his heater with such dominance right out of the gate. Friday’s slate seems to be all about paying up at pitcher, but on two-pitcher sites, it’ll be tough to field a decent lineup of hitters with two $10K+ pitchers. Enter the Rays rookie, who makes a lot of sense as an SP2 (and for Yahoo players, his $36 tag is especially appealing). He won’t likely be allowed to throw more than 90 pitches, but that could be enough against a bad White Sox team that fans at a high 24.4 percent clip against left-handed pitching. The unlikelihood that he pitches deep into the game coupled with his likely high ownership makes McKay a great fade in GPPs.
6. Kyle Freeland has allowed five or more earned runs in six of his 13 starts this year. For context, in 61 career starts entering 2019, he’d totaled four games of 5+ earned runs allowed. About the only good thing to say about Kyle Freeland these days is that he’s still a ground ball pitcher, but even that won’t help him against the Yankees. Here’s why:
— Since 2015, Edwin Encarnacion ranks second in MLB in ISO against ground ball pitchers (min. 143 PA), behind only Mike Trout (who is way ahead of the pack at .347). Gleyber Torres ranks third, at .305. Aaron Judge ranks 15th at .248.
— Over that same span, D.J. LeMahieu’s .354 batting average against ground ball pitchers is best in MLB (using that same minimum).
— Since 2016, Aaron Judge ranks second in on-base percentage against ground ball pitchers, at .441, trailing only (you guessed it) Mike Trout at .491.
Apart from deciding which of the high-end pitchers to choose, fitting in as many Yankees as possible seems to be the next priority on Friday’s slate, especially given their slate-high 6.47 implied run total. There’s nothing sneaky about it, but sometimes the obvious plays are the best plays.
7. So, we’ve established that Trout crushes ground ball pitchers, and all Mike Leake can do is throw his sinker to try to generate grounders. The problem is Leake’s sinker has gotten an 89.4 mph aEV (third-highest of any pitch thrown at least 300 times this year) and batters barrel it up 21.7 percent of the time, worst in MLB. Not surprisingly, the pitch has a .581 xwOBA that is worst of any pitch in MLB, by a lot (Jesse Biddle’s four-seamer, at .502, is next-worst). The BvP backs it up. Check out the results of Trout’s last 17 batted balls against Leake, dating back to 2018:
Two-run double
Two-run homer
Fly out (caught at the warning track)
Solo homer
Fly out (deep to right, a few steps in front of the warning track)
Double
Double
Flyout (deep to right, a few steps in front of the warning track)
Double
Single
Flyout (deep to center, a few steps from the warning track)
Double
Solo homer
Single
Double
Groundout
Single
That’s one groundout; everything else is a hit, usually for extra bases. The rest of the outs were all mere feet away from landing in the stands. I’m not a BvP guy, but Trout’s dominance of Leake transcends BvP; it’s the greatest hitter in the land against an eminently hittable pitcher. There’s no excuse for not having tons of Trout exposure on Friday, particularly if you’re building several (or more) tournament lineups.
8. The great Pepsi7 coined a term several years back: “jack and a bag,” for when a player hits a home run and steals a base in the same game. I think it’s time we officially declare Christian Yelich King of the Jack and a Bag. He’s homered and swiped a bag on 9 occasions in 2019, by far the most in MLB; no other player has more than four. No player had more than 7 all of last year. No player had more than 6 in 2017, or 6 in 2016. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1999 to find a player with more than 9 jack-and-a-bags in a year, when Jeff Bagwell did it. Only eight players in MLB history have exceeded Yelich’s 9 jack and a bags (jacks and a bag? jacks and bags? What’s the ruling on the plural of it, Pepsi, if you’re reading?) over a full season, and we’re only in July. Here’s the full list (fronted by the great Rickey Henderson), courtesy of the Play Index at Baseball Reference:
It’s getting to the point with Yelich where you’re never wrong if you simply slot him in your lineup first, then figure out the rest. But on Friday, he’s got a particularly juicy matchup against Diamondbacks righty Taylor Clarke, who is so obscure that I literally just typed “Ian Clark” before realizing that’s not his name. In a small sample of 23 2/3 innings against lefties, Ian Taylor Clarke has allowed a .388 wOBA despite a crazy low .257 BABIP. He’s only striking lefties out 13.4 percent of the time, and he’s allowing 40 percent hard hits to them. He’s going to get shelled by Yelich, Moustakas, Grandal and company, and he should come at relatively low ownership (at time of writing, he’s projected at 3% at FD, 4% at DK, and 3% at Yahoo). Go heavier on the field on one of the best hitters of the past few years, and reap the rewards.
9. Other than Nolan Arenado, there’s only one player in MLB who has a .400+ wOBA against lefties in each of the past three seasons: J.D. Martinez. Martinez is a true lefty masher, and he has been for several years now. His overall numbers aren’t off the charts like they were in 2018, but as a result, he’s relatively affordable across the industry ($4,000 at FD; $4,700 at DK; $18 at Yahoo). On Friday, Martinez finds himself in an excellent hitting environment with the platoon advantage over Baltimore lefty John Means, who just gave up 3 homers to the Rays in his most recent start. He’ll be popular, but given his history of mashing lefties, there’s a good shot Martinez takes Means deep on Friday.
10. Only one player this year has four batted balls of 115 mph or greater, and it’s not Yelich, or Judge, or Joey Gallo; it’s Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Look: this stat doesn’t reveal anything new about Vlad, Jr. We all know he can crush the ball when he gets hold of one. The problem is that pitchers refuse to throw the ball over the zone when he’s at the dish: among players with 250 PAs, Guerrero sees the fourth-fewest rate of strikes. Luckily, Jordan Zimmermann has a history of throwing tons of strikes, which should benefit Guerrero. It’s not a great hitting environment, but the Jays do have a surprisingly high 5.14 implied total, and Guerrero remains too cheap across the industry ($2,900 at FD; $3,700 at DK; $16 at Yahoo). In order to pay up for pitching (probably the optimal way to go on Friday), you’ll have to save somewhere. Why not save with the rookie phenom who mashes against a strike-throwing guy like Zimmermann?
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!