10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 1st
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 1st.
Friday, June 1st
1. Take a look at the top three pitchers in percentages of plate appearances that begin with an 0-2 count:
Max Scherzer – 41.3%
??? – 38.2%
Justin Verlander – 37.5%
Who’s the mystery pitcher in between Scherzer and Verlander? If you follow me on Twitter, you may know that it’s none other than Nick Pivetta, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign, largely due to his ability to get ahead in the count. On Friday, he faces the Giants, an undisciplined team that strikes out 24.9% of the time against righties, sixth-most in MLB. Not only that, but Pivetta gets a massive park upgrade, moving to AT&T Park, maybe the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. and Even on a slate with Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Strasburg, I’m most excited to lock Pivetta into my lineups.
2. Since I recycled the first note from my Twitter feed, here’s another fun Pivetta stat: he currently holds a 2.76 FIP and a 28.8% strikeout rate, a combination that has only been matched once by a qualified pitcher in Phillies franchise history. Curt Schilling did it way back in 1997. Sure, it’s only June 1st, which means Pivetta has plenty of time to regress to something less than Curt Schilling. But he’s made real changes to his repertoire, taking 14 percentage points of his four-seamer usage and relying more heavily on a more effective sinker and curveball. It feels strange paying $10,000 for a pitcher who was extremely attackable just a year ago, but Pivetta’s breakout is legit, and given the matchup (and the difficult matchups of Sale, Cole, and Strasburg), Pivetta’s price is totally reasonable on this slate.
3. If you are paying up, Chris Sale has been priced at just $11,000, the lowest he’s cost all season. The reason is twofold: he’s in a tough matchup against the Astros, and he’s coming off by far his worst start of the year, when he allowed six earned runs to the Braves and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. But here’s the thing: he still managed to strike out eight Braves in the game. It was the 35th time Sale has punched out eight or more batters since 2017, the most such games in MLB. For context, the other two aces on this slate (Strasburg and Cole) have combined for 39 games of eight strikeouts since last year. For more context, Sale has 44 starts since 2017, which means he’s reached eight strikeouts in 79.5 percent of his starts during that span. Despite his poor outing against the Braves, Sale is as matchup-proof as they come, and he’s at a discount, which makes him preferable than the other high-end options on the slate.
4. Only two pitchers in MLB have a sub-25.0% hard hit rate and sub-.250 wOBA against righties: Justin Verlander, and … Jameson Taillon. Taillon doesn’t possess elite strikeout upside, but he is an excellent cash game option when he’s priced right and facing a mostly right-handed lineup, both of which are true on Friday. He’s just $6,500 at DraftKings, which is cheaper than Clay Buchholz, and he’ll face the Cardinals, who will likely roll out a lineup of six or seven righties. With the high-end options all in difficult matchups, and with Coors Field on the slate, trying to force in two expensive pitchers is clearly not optimal, and Taillon represents a nice salary-saving option in the mid-tier.
5. This season, Tyler Chatwood has walked at least five batters in fewer than five innings in five separate games (Got that? That’s a lot of fives…). Only nine pitchers in MLB history have ever had five such games over an entire season, and Chatwood has done it five times before the beginning of June. He simply cannot find the plate, and even though he’s been able to induce grounders and weak contact, the likelihood that he walks four or five batters makes him an excellent stack-against candidate. Unfortunately, there just isn’t much to like on the Mets, though Jay Bruce ($3,200), Michael Conforto ($3,800), and Brandon Nimmo ($4,000) makes for an inexpensive, high-upside mini-stack, and it should come at extremely low ownership with so few wanting to fill all their outfield slots with Mets bats.
6. Speaking of Brandon Nimmo, he’s been an on-base machine this year, and he’s coupled that with some previously untapped power. Consider this: he’s one of only three qualified hitters in MLB with a .430+ on-base percentage and a .280+ ISO; the other two players are Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. Nimmo will almost certainly reach base multiple times against Chatwood, which makes him a super safe option for cash games at a reasonable salary.
7. Matt Kemp has crushed lefties at Coors, with a .628 wOBA in that split dating back to 2015, best of all players with a minimum of 20 plate appearances. He ranks second in ISO at .425 (where he’s sandwiched between Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado). He ranks fourth in average exit velocity at 92.6 MPH. Granted, we’re talking about 28 plate appearances here, and you probably don’t need an extra reason to play Matt Kemp at Coors with the platoon advantage. But it certainly doesn’t hurt that’s he’s been dominant in these situations.
8. We all know about Carlos Gonzalez’s struggles this year, and we’ve all known for years that he’s essentially only in play when he’s at Coors Field. But his home/road splits have become absurd as of late. Take a look at each number in his slash line at home and away, with the player in parentheses being a player whose career marks roughly equal CarGo’s number (give or take a few points):
So, at Coors, Gonzalez becomes Musial, or Bagwell, or Big Hurt, Mantle, or Vlad. Outside of Coors, he becomes…Jeff Mathis, in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. Best of all, he’s priced at just $3,900 with the platoon advantage over Dodgers rookie Dennis Martinez on Friday. Ownership will be sky-high, but Gonzalez is one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate.
9. Here is the list of players who have posted a .380 wOBA and better than 50 percent hard hits versus lefties since 2017 (min. 150 PA): J.D. Martinez, Trevor Story, and … Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar has been mashing this season, and on Friday, he has the platoon edge over fly ball lefty Hector Santiago. In tournaments, Aguilar – in addition to other lefty-mashing Brewers Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain – may not get the attention they deserve. If looking for a high-upside stack that gets you off of the likely massive ownership of Coors Field and the Yankees, the Brewers could be that team.
10. It’s time for a game of blind resume! Let’s look at some DFS-relevant numbers of two hitters against right-handed pitching since 2016:
These numbers are pretty close to identical. Player A hits the ball hard a bit more often, but overall, Player B has been a tad better at producing runs.
Player A is Manny Machado. Player B, surprisingly, is Oakland’s Matt Joyce, who is very obviously not Manny Machado. But he is a player who has consistently performed when he has the platoon advantage. He’s also a player who seems to be underpriced every time he has the platoon advantage against a righty. That’s certainly the case today, as his $3,200 tag at DraftKings makes him one of the best salary savers on the slate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!