10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 17th

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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, July 17th.

1. In 16 starts this season, Lance McCullers has walked more than two batters on two occasions; in 14 starts last season, he had only three starts where he didn’t walk two or more batters. As if a guy with a 69.0% ground ball rate, a 31.4% strikeout rate, and a minuscule 19.6% hard hit rate at home weren’t enough, McCullers has, in his third season, appeared to eliminate the one lingering area of risk in his game. He’s decreased his walk rate from 12.8% in 2016 (which would’ve been the highest in MLB if he had the innings to qualify) to a much more palatable 7.1% this season. On Monday, McCullers is in a home matchup with the Mariners, who have been solid against right-handed pitching this year, ranking sixth in wRC+ (106) and 11th in wOBA (.326) and striking out at a roughly league average rate (20.8%). But this isn’t about matchup; it’s about positional scarcity. McCullers and Jon Lester are the only pitchers resembling anything close to aces on Monday’s main slate, which makes him a clear top option for both cash games and tournaments.

2. Speaking of Jon Lester, he’ll be taking on the lefty-heavy offense of the Atlanta Braves on Monday. Let’s take a look at how Lester’s numbers against lefties over the last two seasons have compared to those of a pitcher we’ll keep nameless for now (but here’s a hint: this pitcher is known as a lefty destroyer):

Stat (vs. LHB since 2016) Lester ???
K% 29.4% 31.6%
wOBA .230 .221
BA .199 .190
SLG .294 .310
xFIP 2.40 2.38

Lester compares favorably to this pitcher, at least against southpaws. Are you ready? The second pitcher listed is Clayton Kershaw. Lester is elite against same-handed hitters, which means he should be able to neutralize Atlanta’s left-handed bats of Freeman, Markakis, Inciarte, and Adams. He’s priced fairly across the industry, and while he may not have the upside of McCullers, his floor is arguably just as high.

3. Jason Vargas has been elite against right-handed batters at home this year, allowing a .245 wOBA in those situations; only Clayton Kershaw (.238) and Chris Sale (.210) have been better. There’s no denying that spacious Kauffman Stadium is an ideal fit for Vargas’s fly ball tendencies – it’s led to his MLB-leading 1.84 ERA at home. He’s been able to neutralize opposite-handed hitters with an elite changeup that he throws 34.2% of the time against them, a pitch against which righties have managed just a .221 xwOBA (third-best among pitchers with 50 at-bats ending in a changeup). This is significant because Detroit tends to roll out an almost entirely right-handed lineup, and if that’s the case on Monday, Vargas should be able to keep the Tigers in check. Make no mistake; there’s plenty of risk here, and Vargas is not a high-upside pitcher to begin with (he hasn’t struck out more than four batters in any of his past four starts). But outside of McCullers and Lester, pitching is a wasteland on this slate, and Vargas may be able to get the job done.

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4. Wil Myers has a .422 ISO in 54 plate appearances at Coors Field since 2016; that’s the highest mark of any hitter with at least 54 PA in that venue. Myers’s Padres visit Coors on Monday, and Myers should have his way against German Marquez, who allows 42.2% fly balls and 37.3% hard contact against righties. It may not be necessary to go overboard on Padres bats, as there are four non-Coors teams (Orioles, Rangers, Royals, Astros) with higher implied run totals than their 5.09 mark. However, it feels like DraftKings is pricing Myers too low as a result of his team’s (rather than his) incompetence, as he’s the 10th-most-expensive first baseman. At that price, he makes for a fantastic cash game play with massive upside.

5. Andrew Cashner is one of four pitchers with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a 28.1% hard hit rate or below against right-handed batters this year; the others are Alex Wood, Lance McCullers, and Dallas Keuchel. Now, by no means is Andrew Cashner a viable DFS option. But his ability to generate weak grounders to righties does throw some cold water on the idea of an Orioles stack, as Baltimore’s lineup is made up primarily of right-handers. Baltimore’s 5.57 implied run total is certainly enticing, and they’ll surely make lots of contact, as Cashner’s 12.4% strikeout rate against righties ranks 120th of 123 pitchers (min. 40 IP). However, there’s at least a decent chance Baltimore hits a bunch of weak grounders and disappoints.

6. Over the past 30 days, Nomar Mazara has a high 38.6% hard hit rate; despite this, his .186 BABIP over that stretch is the third-lowest in all of baseball among qualified hitters. During that same stretch, Rougned Odor (.206 BABIP, 43.5% hard hit rate) and Adrian Beltre (.227, 40.2% hard hits) have also been extremely unlucky. As a team, Texas has a more-than-respectable .339 wOBA against righties despite a .251 BABIP, the lowest in MLB. The Rangers seem due for an offensive explosion, and it could come on Monday against Baltimore righty Chris Tillman, whose 5.55 SIERA would be the worst in MLB if he had the innings to qualify.

7. Since 2016, 125 players have at least 150 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers (and just to be clear, Baseball Reference categorizes all pitchers in the top third of MLB in ground ball rate as “ground ball pitchers”); of those 125 players, Carlos Gonzalez ranks 123rd with a .296 slugging percentage against ground ballers. On Monday, he faces Luis Perdomo, owner of a high 61.8% ground ball rate to lefties. CarGo is ridiculously cheap across the industry, especially at DraftKings ($3,000) and FantasyDraft ($6,000). The Coors factor means he should see high ownership, which makes him an interesting (albeit difficult) fade in tournaments given his struggles at hitting pitchers who keep the ball down.

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8. Atlanta’s brand new SunTrust Park has gotten a lot of attention for it’s hitter-friendliness, which starkly contrasts with the old Turner Field. How bad must Julio Teheran hate SunTrust Park? I’ll illustrate it in three different ways:

—Teheran’s 7.58 home ERA this year is the worst among qualified pitchers, a full 1.13 runs higher than the player with second-highest home ERA, Zach Davies (6.45).

—In his 68 career home starts at Turner Field, Teheran allowed six or more earned runs twice. In nine home games started at SunTrust Park, Teheran has allowed six or more earned runs four times.

—This year, Teheran has a .384 wOBA in Atlanta’s new stadium, which is a career-high for him at home. He’s also allowed a career-high 13 home runs at SunTrust. If you turn each of those 13 home runs into outs, Teheran’s home wOBA this year would sit at .274, just barely below his .282 career wOBA at Turner Field.

9. What’s even worse for Teheran on Monday is his opponent: coming out of the All-Star break, the Chicago Cubs have scored 8+ runs in three consecutive games, the first time they’ve done that since August of 2008. The defending World Series champs appear poised to go on a tear, as they’ve been dominant over the entire month of July; after ranking in the bottom third of MLB in team wOBA in May and June, the Cubs rank second in wOBA (.373) this month. They should be able to load up on lefties, against whom Teheran is particularly vulnerable (.343 wOBA, just a 14.2% strikeout rate), making the Cubs one of the top stacks of the day, though they will be popular.

10. Pretty much everyone would agree that there’s no scarier hitter on the planet right now than Aaron Judge. Against lefties this year, Judge boasts an insane .397 ISO, which should surprise no one. What is a bit more surprising, though, is that Andrew McCutchen has hit for even more power than Judge against lefties, with an MLB-leading .400 ISO. And what’s more, while Judge fans 25.9% of the time against southpaws, McCutchen has elite contact skills as well, with just a 10.1% strikeout rate. Now, just to be clear, I’m not arguing that McCutchen is a better power hitter than Aaron Judge. But whatever ailed McCutchen last season appears to be long gone; he’s back to being an elite hitter, particularly when he has the platoon advantage, as he will on Monday against Milwaukee lefty Brent Suter. He’s a top option in both cash games, and he should fly under the radar in tournaments given that there are many better hitting environments than PNC Park on Monday’s slate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

Follow Josh Cole on Twitter, where I post interesting stats whenever I dig them up!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.