10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 24th

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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, July 24th.

1. In seven starts since June 12th, Jacob deGrom has six games of 6+ innings pitched and 1 or fewer earned run allowed; that’s the most such games in MLB over that span. He’s been as reliable as they come, posting a 1.51 ERA and allowing just a .225 wOBA over this recent stretch. And while the 3.55 SIERA, the .209 BABIP, and the 92.7% strand rate all suggest he’s been “very good” rather than “elite,” he’ll be aided by a best-case-scenario matchup on Monday against the Padres, the team that ranks in the bottom five in MLB in wOBA (.305) and wRC+ (87) against right-handed pitching. The real selling point, though, is the fact that San Diego strikes out an MLB-high 25.6% of the time against righties. If you’re still not convinced, consider this…

2. German Marquez, Nick Pivetta, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Chatwood, Dylan Covey, Taijuan Walker, Dan Straily. These are some of the non-elite strikeout arms who have notched 8+ strikeouts in a game against the Padres this season. Marquez actually did it twice, and a few of them (Walker with 11 and Straily with 14) reached double figures. When it comes to elite strikeout pitchers, the Padres just give away strikeouts. They’ve faced qualified pitchers with strikeout rates at 28.0% (deGrom’s K%) or higher seven times, and they’ve allowed 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, and 15 strikeouts in those games. deGrom is the easy, no-questions-asked cash game pitcher for Monday’s slate, and while his inflated salary (based on recent production that, as we’ve seen by his SIERA, BABIP, and LOB%, isn’t exactly sustainable) makes him a decent tournament fade, 6-8 strikeouts seems all but locked in given his matchup.

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3. Since May 22nd, when Brad Peacock entered Houston’s starting rotation, he has generated 26.5% soft contact, third-best in MLB over that stretch. Everyone knows about Peacock’s high strikeouts (32.1% since May 22nd, sixth-highest in MLB) and even higher walks (12.7%, third-highest), but his ability to induce weak contact is less talked about, and it’s what’s allowed him to post a 2.49 ERA (lowest of the day) despite the walks. His home run suppression – he’s allowed one home run in 221 batters faced during this span for a 2.3% HR/FB rate – is totally unsustainable, and when that regression hits, it won’t be pretty. The looming risk makes him ordinarily better suited for tournaments (especially now that he’s being priced like an ace), but his matchup is nearly as favorable as deGrom’s today. The Phillies rank in the bottom five of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, and their 23.5% strikeout rate, while not Padres-good, is still sixth-highest in MLB. Peacock has immense upside, but just understand the risk involved in rostering a pitcher who is almost guaranteed to walk a few batters.

4. James Paxton has eight starts this year against teams that rank in the top 10 in MLB in strikeout rates against left-handed pitching; his strikeout rate during those games is 28.6%, which is nearly as high as the 29.0% strikeout rate he’s posted against all teams that don’t rank in the top 10. In other words, Paxton has been relatively matchup-proof when it comes to strikeouts. On Monday, he’s in for a stiff test against the Red Sox, the team that owns the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against lefties at 15.7%. It’s asking too much to expect Paxton to rack up double-digit strikeouts against the high-contact Red Sox, but five or six is a reasonable expectation. Vegas believes Paxton will limit the damage, as the Red Sox have a low 3.74 implied run total, second-lowest of the slate behind only the Padres against deGrom. It’s worth monitoring Boston’s lineup, as Paxton has shown reverse splits with much better strikeout numbers against righties (26.6 K% vs. RHB, 16.2 K% vs. LHB since 2016). Either way, it’s hard to envision Paxton putting up a GPP-winning score, since…

5. Boston has faced 21 left-handed starters this year, and not one of them has recorded more than six strikeouts against the Red Sox, and 12 of these starters have been held to three strikeouts or fewer.

6. Cody Bellinger has posted a .403 wOBA against right-handed pitchers at home this year, which looks pretty good. It looks even better when you consider that he’s done it with a low .231 BABIP on 45.5% hard hits. Of the 22 players with at least a 45.0% hard hit rate at home against righties, Bellinger’s .231 BABIP is the lowest. What that means is that Bellinger is that in these situations, Bellinger is absolutely crushing the ball, is getting extremely unlucky, and is still putting up elite production. He’s one of the top overall hitters of the day in a matchup against Bartolo Colon (.348 wOBA, 1.48 HR/9 against LHB since 2016). The Dodgers’ 5.56 implied run total (second-highest of the day) says that a Dodgers stack is fully in play, and there’s a decent chance that the game’s late start time could suppress ownership to some degree.

7. Yesterday, Jose Altuve went 4-for-5, recording four hits in a game for the 14th time since 2015; no other player in MLB has more than 10 such games during that span. Altuve has multiple hits in 11 of his past 14 games. While his high-contact approach makes him always a great cash game play in theory, it can be difficult to fit in his salary if spending up at pitching. I’m highlighting him today to point out that he’s an essential part of any Astros stack, and to point out that today is an excellent day to stack Houston at low ownership. The Astros have a low (for them) 4.98 implied run total, and Velasquez looked excellent in his first start back (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks). However, the Astros have the ability to go off against any pitcher, as we’ve seen, and Velasquez’s history of being wild and issuing walks could result in Houston putting up runs in bunches.

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8. Giancarlo Stanton has shaved nearly 12 percentage points off his strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this year; it’s down to 16.3% from 28.2% last year (and 31.3% year before that). It’s come at a cost, as his hard hit rate has plummeted from 55.9% last year to 35.6% this year, but overall, Stanton has been at least as productive this year in this split (147 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2017, 146 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2016), just in a different way. He’s clearly changed his approach, and he’s hitting for much more contact. Case in point, he has six games of 3+ strikeouts this year; last season on this date, he already had 12 such games. Texas’s Martin Perez has forgotten how to get ground balls against righties this year (52.8% GB rate vs. RHB in 2016, 43.2% this year), and his 37.2% hard hits allowed says that, if Stanton gets hold of one, it could easily leave the yard. He’s one of the top overall plays in all formats on Monday’s slate.

9. Here are Ryon Healy extra-base hit totals by month this year:

April – 10
May – 11
June – 16
July – 1

Healy’s ground ball rate is up this month (55.2%), but it’s hard to believe his power has suddenly disappeared overnight. He’s been elite against lefties this season (.437 ISO, .294 ISO). On Monday, he’s in a positive matchup against Francisco Liriano (.388 wOBA to RHB in 2017), and he gets a positive park upgrade to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Particularly at DraftKings, where he’s eligible at both first base and third base, Healy is one of the better bargains of the day.

10. Since June 1st, only three players have recorded eight home runs and nine stolen bases: Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and … Tommy Pham. Pham is in the midst of a breakout campaign, and he’s got legitimate “jack-and-a-bag” upside every time he’s in the lineup. His salary has risen across the industry to the point that he’s rarely going to be highly owned, which makes him an excellent one-off for tournaments. His matchup with Antonio Senzatela (just a .308 wOBA and 29.3% hard hits against RHP this year) isn’t elite, but Pham is certainly a name to monitor moving forward.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

Follow Josh Cole on Twitter, where I post interesting stats whenever I dig them up!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.