10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 30th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, July 30th, 2016.
1. Thirty times this year a team has recorded at least nine extra-base hits in a single game. Jake Arrieta has allowed nine extra base hits – eight doubles, one triple, zero home runs – all season. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a home run at Wrigley Field in over a year (July 25th, 2015 was the last time a hitter went yard). His matchup against the Mariners on Saturday is tricky, as they rank near the top of MLB in wOBA (.336, ranks fourth), ISO (.181, ranks seventh), and wRC+ (113, ranks third). Still, with arguably no other true aces taking the hill on Sunday (depending on how you view the pitcher in note #2), Arrieta is the premier pitching play of the day.
2. Justin Verlander has a 25.7 K% in 2016, which is virtually identical to the 25.8% he posted in his Cy Young year of 2011. With the Astros’ owning a robust 23.9% strikeout rate against righties this year (fourth-highest in MLB), it’s a boom or bust matchup for Verlander, but it’s worth noting that he held them at bay on April 16th, striking out eight and allowing just three earned over six frames. The caveat: he allowed two home runs in that game. If you roster a pitcher against the Astros, you’re banking on a home run – you’re just hoping they’re solo shots.
3. Here is the list of players with lower WHIP than Jeremy Hellickson (0.81) over the past 30 days: Max Scherzer (0.76). Stephen Strasburg (0.78). That’s it. Hellickson’s 28.4% soft contact rate (second-best in MLB over that stretch) trails only Tyler Anderson’s 31.0% mark. While he’s certainly not a high-upside play against a Braves team that, as we saw last night with Vincent Velasquez, can really limit a pitcher’s K upside, he is safe and can limit damage. As the 12th most expensive pitcher on the main slate at FD, he can be a path to some of the higher-priced bats on the slate.
4. Anthony DeSclafani has faced 91 right-handed batters this year and allowed two extra-base hits (both doubles). Since 2015, he’s allowed just five home runs to righties, with only Aaron Sanchez (two HRs allowed to RHB) allowing fewer (min. 110 IP). Plus, he faces a San Diego team who he dominated earlier this year, when he went eight scoreless innings, allowing just five hits and fanning five along the way.
5. Drew Smyly had a 26.7% strikeout rate through July 1st. In the three starts since, he’s struck out four batters for a 5.6% strikeout rate. So, to put that into perspective – since July 2nd, J.A. Happ is striking out 5.8 batters for every one that Drew Smyly strikes out. The only problem is identifying a Yankees righty to attack him with. Carlos Beltran has a history of hitting fly ball pitchers well (career .854 OPS), and very few people will look to him, making him a potential one-off for tournaments.
6. Since 2015, Rougned Odor has a .303 ISO and .316 batting average against fly ball pitchers (and at 169 plate appearances, the sample size is decent). He’s one of eight players with those numbers, and the list should tell you about how dominant he is against fly ball pitchers: he’s joined by Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, Yoenis Cespedes, and Manny Machado. Odor has homered in two straight games, and he faces Ian Kennedy on Saturday, a pitcher who, against lefties, has a 55.3% fly ball rate (highest in MLB) and allows 39.0% hard contact (ninth-highest rate in MLB). With temperatures expected in the mid-90s by game time, this is a perfect storm type scenario for Odor.
7. One hitter to avoid in the same game: Lorenzo Cain, who made his return to the Royals lineup last night. Cain faces Martin Perez (51.5% ground ball rate versus RHB), and he’s shown no power upside against ground ball pitchers throughout his career, posting a .092 career ISO. For context, that’s the same as Darwin Barney and slightly worse than Peter Bourjos (.093) against ground ball pitchers.
8. Yasmany Tomas has five two-homer games in 2016, the same number as every other player on the Diamondbacks combined (Welington Castillo, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrman, Jean Segura, and Peter O’Brien each have one). Scott Kazmir opened as the second-largest favorite of the day, which is curious given that, against LHP, the Diamondbacks rank third in wOBA (.347), second in ISO (.197), and seventh in wRC+ (112). Expect low ownership for guys like Tomas, Goldschmidt, and Castillo, given the low projected run total, Kazmir’s quasi-name value, and the late start time.
9. Jose Abreu has 11 home runs in 2016. It took him until May 2 to reach 11 home runs in his rookie year. Worth noting is that his hard contact has dropped steadily since his amazing rookie year – 36.4% in 2014, 34.2% in 2015, 31.1% in 2016 – to the point that he’s below league average in that metric (31.3 Hard% is league average this year).
10. Brandon Finnegan was surprisingly competent last night against the Padres, dropping his hard hit rate against righties to a (still not good) 39.6%, making the new leader…Mike Fiers! With a 39.7% hard hit rate versus right-handers, Fiers is in a dangerous spot against a Tigers team that can go right-handed top to bottom.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Thursdays, Saturdays, and Sundays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!