10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 7th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, July 7, 2016.
1. In 70 innings of work in 2016, Rich Hill has struck out 10.29 batters per nine innings while allowing only two home runs. If those numbers hold through Thursday’s start against the Astros, he’ll join Dwight Gooden (1984) as one of two pitchers in MLB history with a K/9 above 10.0 and two or fewer home runs allowed before the All-Star break (min. 70 IP). Hill’s 2.31 ERA is more than a half run better than Gooden’s 2.84 in the first half of his historic 1984 season. His opponent on Thursday, the Houston Astros, have a .229 batting average against lefties, the second-lowest in all of MLB.
2. Only two pitchers in MLB have allowed lower OPS numbers to opposing hitters than Drew Pomeranz (.571 OPS) – they are Jake Arrieta (.538) and Clayton Kershaw (.475). On Thursday, Pomeranz finds himself in a better-than-expected matchup against the Dodgers, who are one of three teams in baseball with a sub-.300 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season (.288 wOBA). The other teams? They’re two teams DFS players love to pick on – the Braves (.273) and the Phillies (.265).
3. For most of the season, DFS players have had to worry about Danny Duffy’s pitch count as he transitioned out of his bullpen role in Kansas City. Those worries have (or should have) disappeared, as Duffy has gone at least eight innings in the past two starts. And he’s been effective, striking out eight batters in each start. The only other pitchers in MLB with two eight-inning, eight-strikeout games in a row this season are Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, and Jon Lester. Duffy takes on a Mariners team with some dangerous power righties, but they’re a team that is surprisingly middle-of-the-road (100 wRC+) against lefties this year. If he can navigate Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez, and Dae-Ho Lee (no small feat), he could be in for another solid outing.
4. Trevor Bauer is currently sporting a 60.4% ground ball rate against right-handed batters that is the fourth-highest among qualified starters…and just a 37.9% ground ball rate against lefties, which ranks 87th. His 24.2% hard-contact rate to righties ranks 14th among qualified starters, while his 44.1% hard-contact rate to lefties ranks 107th (for context: that’s out of 108 qualified starters). Whether Bauer is in play is clearly dependent on how many lefties crack the Yankees lineup.
5. In his last start, Jason Hammel allowed 10 earned runs and 5 home runs to the Mets, causing his ERA to spike from 2.58 to 3.45. It was the first time in Cubs history and just the 12th time in MLB history that a pitcher allowed 10+ earned and 5+ homers in a single game. Hammel allowed just 18 earned runs in his first 12 starts of the year; since then, he’s allowed 17 in his last four. Despite this, Hammel finds himself the largest favorite of the day. What a weird day for pitching.
6. Odubel Herrera is one of three players in MLB with a walk rate above 12.0%, a strikeout rate below 18.0%, and double-digit steals. The other two are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Now, Herrera is obviously not in the same class as those two hitters – for one thing, his .138 ISO is around 100 points lower than each of them (Trout is .245, Harper is .229). Still, his on-base skills are elite, and even though he hits mostly singles, he runs, which gives him elite upside in Coors on Thursday.
7. One player who might (might) still not be playable, even with the platoon advantage, even at Coors, is Ryan Howard. Howard’s .157 batting average against righties currently ranks dead last among 182 qualified hitters, and his .151 overall batting average is tied for the fifth-lowest mark before the All-Star break in the Live Ball Era (starting in 1920). Then again, Howard homered in both of his last two games at Coors Field, and he’s a career .311 hitter there (compared to his .258 overall career average), so…
8. In 274 plate appearances, Nolan Arenado has a career .335 ISO when facing lefties at Coors. That’s not just good – that’s like, Babe Ruth good. In fact, Babe Ruth is the only player in MLB history to post a career ISO higher than .335 (his was .348). Arenado is one of the top hitting options (if not the top hitting option) on Thursday against Phillies left-hander Adam Morgan, but DFS players have a tough choice between Arenado and Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco, who on Wednesday night became the first player this season to homer in four straight games.
9. Daniel Murphy is singlehandedly making the case for revenge narratives (okay, not really, but hear me out) – 28.5% of his home runs this season (four of his 14 total) have come against the Mets. Against his former team, Murphy is slashing .429/.447/.800 with a 1.247 OPS. Here is the list of players who have had full seasons of 1.247 OPS or better: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth.
10. Mets veteran Bartolo Colon (age: 43 years, 44 days) takes on Nationals rookie Lucas Giolito (age: 21 years, 359 days) at CitiField on Thursday. Bartolo Colon had been a 20-game winner twice (2002, 2005), won a Cy Young Award (2005), been traded from the Indians to the Expos for Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and and Grady Sizemore, been traded from the Expos to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Liefer, worn four major league uniforms (meaning, played for four teams – I assume he’s worn more than four actual uniforms, but who knows?), won 166 games, struck out 1,674 major-league batters, and been named to two All-Star teams…all before Lucas Giolito became a teenager.
Thanks for reading! Stats used in this article were pulled from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Good luck tonight, and be sure to check back on Mondays, Thursdays, Saturdays, and Sundays during this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!