10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 13th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-06-14 02:20:36

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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Tuesday, June 13th.

1. Clayton Kershaw has a 15.6% HR/FB rate this year (including a 33.3% HR/FB over the past three games); it’s the first year he’s had a HR/FB above league average since his rookie year in 2008.

In other words, Kershaw has been on the right side of home run variance for years, and this is what it looks like when he falls below league average in HR/FB: he becomes a merely elite, rather than otherworldly, starting pitcher. The Indians are tied for 22nd in wRC+ against lefties this year (with the Phillies), although they hold a low 17.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, which is the fourth-lowest in MLB. Today, you’ll almost certainly hear someone say, “It’s Kershaw – he can get strikeouts against any opponent,” and while that is true to some extent, it’s not as if double-digit strikeouts are a foregone conclusion. Case in point: Kershaw has struck out eight or more batters in seven games this year, and each one of those opponents had one of the 12 highest strikeout rates against lefties. Despite that, Kershaw’s floor is so high that he is still the building block with which we should start our cash game lineups.

2. Despite giving up six earned runs to the Yankees (something he seems to do basically every time he faces them, which I wrote about in a “10 Notes” article before that start), David Price threw 107 pitches in that start. That’s not a flashy start, but the fact that he wasn’t pulled even when he was getting shelled does underscore the fact that any type of pitch count Price was under to begin the year has been lifted. The Phillies are much better against left-handed pitching this year (and shockingly, their .189 ISO against southpaws is third-best in MLB). Even so, as a massive home favorite, Price makes for a fine tournament option or SP2 on two-pitcher sites, as long as there’s enough value to fit him in alongside Kershaw.

3. Here are the top five qualified starters in road ERA since 2016, in descending order: Ervin Santana (2.54), Aaron Sanchez (2.51), Cole Hamels (2.46), Clayton Kershaw (2.18), Tyler Chatwood (1.99). Chatwood is 0.19 points better than the second-place Kershaw, and he’s roughly a half-run better than everyone else in the top five. He’s started 20 games on the road since the beginning of last year, and he’s allowed more than two earned runs in just four of them. His 24.5% hard hit rate on the road is fourth-best in MLB, and his 57.6% ground ball rate is third-highest in MLB. He’s in a winnable matchup on Tuesday, as Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA and wRC+. But perhaps most encouraging for Chatwood as an SP2 consideration is their .141 ISO, which is third-worst in MLB. The upside is never massive with Chatwood (his 19.8% strikeout rate on the road since 2016 ranks 55th, tied with Chase Anderson). Even so, he’s a fine complement to higher upside of Kershaw or Price.

4. Here are C.C. Sabathia’s numbers over his last five starts: 32 ⅓ IP, 1.11 ERA, 31 K, 6 BB. Looking a bit closer, he also has a totally unsustainable 97.0% left-on-base rate, which certainly won’t hold. It’s easy to forge that before this stretch, Sabathia allowed 5, 6, 7, and 4 earned runs in the four starts prior. Sabathia’s 3.42 SIERA over this stretch implies that he’s probably been on the right side of variance rather than truly elite. While you can certainly make the case for Sabathia as an SP2 against the Trout-less Angels, he’ll face almost entirely right-handed hitters. I’m content to look elsewhere and avoid the imminent disastrous outing.

5. Derek Holland has allowed 14 home runs to right-handed batters this year; no other pitcher on Tuesday’s slate has allowed more than nine. Holland’s 44.4% hard hit rate against righties is also tops on the slate (excluding Jacob Faria, who only has one start this year). Manny Machado hasn’t hit for average against lefties yet this year (.235), but if his 51.8% hard hit rate against lefties holds, he’s in for some massive positive regression. A matchup with Derek Holland seems like the perfect time for that regression to begin.

6. In terms of exit velocity, Aaron Judge has three of the hardest-hit balls of the season…and he’s hit them over the last five days. For the season, Judge occupies five of the top six and nine of the top 15 slots on MLB.com’s exit velocity leaderboard. He homered again last night, and while J.C. Ramirez does keep the ball on the ground enough against righties (50.4% ground ball rate) to keep this from being an elite spot, it might not matter: Judge has a 47.4% HR/FB rate against righties this year. Mike Trout is a distant second, with a 35.7% HR/FB rate against righties.

7. Since June 7th, Jose Pirela has a 340 wRC+, third-best in MLB and eight points higher than Aaron Judge during that span. Nobody is confusing Pirela with an elite hitter, but he has been (and continues to be) an elite value across the industry batting out of San Diego’s leadoff spot. San Diego has an implied run total of just 3.97 runs, which means we should limit our exposure overall (no surprise there – it’s the Padres). But fitting in low-cost, high-in-the-order hitters like Pirela allow you to pay up for pitchers like Kershaw and Price.

8. Since the beginning of May, Kyle Schwarber has eight home runs, and seven other hits. Schwarber has occasionally hit at the top of the order again for the Cubs, and if that continues on Tuesday against Zach Wheeler, he’s just too cheap for his home run upside. Wheeler has gotten incredibly lucky against lefties this year, somehow posting a .300 wOBA on 41.7% hard hits. Craig Edwards at FanGraphs wrote a mildly encouraging piece about Schwarber, and I’m convinced that Schwarber’s league-worst .195 BABIP will even out sooner or later.

9. At 90.1 miles per hour, Gerrit Cole has the highest average exit velocity against lefties of the 44 players with at least 100 batted balls. At 82.2 miles per hour, he has the lowest average exit velocity against righties of the 93 players with at least 100 batted balls. With a .385 wOBA and 10 home runs allowed to lefties, Cole is officially a pitcher we can attack with southpaws. Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon will garner very little ownership on Tuesday, but they’re an excellent two-man tournament stack.

10. It’s time for a game of blind resume. Take a look at some DFS-relevant stats of two players below. These numbers are for the 2017 season against right-handed pitching:

The obvious difference is that Player B is dealing with a much smaller sample, so we have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. That said, these players have a lot in common: while Player A hits for more power, they’ve both been on-base machines with high hard hit rates. Both are probably due for a bit of regression based on their high BABIPs, but even taking that into account, both have been elite against righties in small samples this year.

Player A is Charlie Blackmon. Player B? It’s Mitch Haniger, recently off the disabled list and discounted across the industry. Haniger has hit the ground running, notching four hits yesterday, and today, he’s in a great matchup against Kyle Gibson (.390 wOBA in a limited sample against RHB this year). Haniger is an excellent cash game option given his affordable price across the industry.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!

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