10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 17th
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, June 17th.
1. There are eight pitchers in MLB with at least a 28.0% strikeout rate against lefties. Of those eight, Stephen Strasburg’s 22.4% hard hit rate is the lowest. Following Strasburg is Jon Lester at 24.5%, and after those two, the next-lowest hard hit rate is 31.0%. Strasburg’s ability to generate strikeouts and weak contact is certainly going to come in handy against the Mets, whose strongest asset is their left-handed power. Strasburg was the victim of home run regression in his last start, giving up three home runs to the Braves (his HR/FB rate was a low 8.6% before that game), but even so, he salvaged the outing somewhat with 10 strikeouts. There’s a decent chance Michael Conforto, or Jay Bruce, or Yoenis Cespedes gets hold of one on Saturday, but even so, Strasburg remains arguably the top cash game pitcher on the early slate.
2. The Detroit Tigers have the highest hard hit rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 43.3%, and it’s not even close. The Arizona Diamondbacks are a distant second at 36.8%, and the 6.5 percentage point gap that separates these two teams is the same gap that exists between the Diamondbacks and the Angels (30.6%), who rank 22nd in hard hit rate against righties. This is a scary matchup for Chris Archer, especially since he’s on the road, where he’s been far worse this year (4.59 xFIP away, compared to 2.57 at Tropicana Field). While he’s been good enough against righties (.251 wOBA allowed, 31.1% K rate) to merit consideration in tournaments, this is not a spot for Archer in cash games.
3. Here are the average exit velocities against left-handed pitching for three notable pitchers, one of whom pitches on Saturday’s slate (I’ll name them later):
Player A: 84.2 mph
Player B: 84.6 mph
Player C: 84.7 mph
Player A is soft contact wizard Dallas Keuchel; no surprise there. Player C is one of the greatest pitchers of all time in Clayton Kershaw (another lefty). Player B is a bit more surprising. It’s Arizona’s Zack Godley. While Godley isn’t quite as adept at limiting the hard hits to righties (88.5 mph average exit velocity), Philadelphia will likely try to roll out as many lefties as they can (they had five in the lineup the last time they faced a righty). If that’s the case, Godley makes for a fine cash game option.
4. One more Godley note: he’s riding a streak of six consecutive quality starts, which is the longest active streak in MLB.
5. Since May 27th, here is the complete list of pitchers (min. 20 IP) who have allowed a lower wOBA than Chase Anderson’s .172 mark: Max Scherzer. That’s it. Anderson, typically a low-strikeout pitcher, is striking out 30.6% of the batters he faces during this recent stretch. He’s allowed one extra-base hit (a double) over his last four starts. He’s a huge -160 favorite at home. All these numbers make him feel like a solid cash game play, but even so, it feels odd paying
6. It’s time for some blind resume. Take a look at the table below:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| Slugging | .607 | .621 |
| OPS | 1.051 | 1.022 |
| wOBA | .435 | .425 |
| ISO | .309 | .308 |
| Hard% | 41.4% | 40.2% |
These two players have remarkably similar numbers across the board. Who are they? Player A represents the career numbers of home run king Barry Bonds. Player B represents Nelson Cruz numbers in his last 603 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Cruz is in an elite hitting environment on Saturday, as it should be hot in Texas. And what’s more, he faces a left-handed pitcher that he’s historically crushed in Martin Perez (five hits in 12 at-bats, including three home runs). Even with Coors Field on the slate, Cruz is one of the top hitters of the day, from a raw points perspective.
7. The last time Buster Posey struck out to a left-handed pitcher was on May 2nd, at the hands of Alex Wood. This year, he has a crazy .458 wOBA to go along with a crazier 7.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, and if it holds (a big “if,” obviously), he’ll be the first hitter with a .450+ wOBA and a sub-8.0% strikeout rate against lefties in a season since Albert Pujols in 2009, a year in which Pujols was the National League MVP. On Saturday, Posey is expected to be back in the lineup against Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Freeland, by the way, has just an 11.2% strikeout rate against righties, a figure which ranks 97th out of 99 qualified starters this year. Posey will put the ball in play multiple times on Saturday, and (while he’s also excellent for tournaments), he’s perhaps the top cash game option on the slate.
8. Ivan Nova throws his two-seam fastball nearly half the time (47.04%) to left-handed batters; against two-seam fastballs thrown by right-handed pitchers since last year, Anthony Rizzo has a .548 xwOBA, which is second-best in MLB (Yasmani Grandal .557 mark ranks first). Rizzo has long been a hitter who prefers hitting ground ball pitchers (his .301 ISO against ground ballers since 2016 is sixth-best in MLB), and Nova’s 9.8% strikeout rate against lefties this year says Rizzo will put the ball in play. Rizzo shouldn’t see huge ownership given that PNC Park is more of a pitcher’s park, which makes him an elite tournament play for the late slate.
9. The leader in average exit velocity against left-handed pitching this year isn’t Aaron Judge; he ranks second, averaging 96.0 mph when he makes contact against southpaws. First place belongs to Miguel Sano, who owns a 96.7 mph average exit velocity and will face two bad left-handed starters on Saturday in Ryan Merritt and Adam Wilk. It’s baseball, and anything can happen, but if Sano doesn’t send one deep in one of Minnesota’s two games, I’ll be shocked.
10. Carlos Santana is priced incredibly low at DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and according to RotoGrinders projections, he’s the top point-per-dollar hitter at both sites. As he is a switch hitter who will face a pair of lefties in Adalberto Mejia and Adam Wilk, it’s worth looking at the splits to see how he fares as a right-handed batter. Over the last two seasons, Santana has turned into much more of a high-contact, ground ball hitter as a righty. His ground ball shoots up nearly 20 percentage points (35.8% vs. RHP, 53.0% vs. LHP), his hard hits decrease by nearly seven percentage points (37.3% vs. RHP, 30.4% vs. LHP), his ISO is more than cut in half (.265 vs. RHP, .120 vs. LHP), and his wOBA takes a big dip, as well (.374 vs. RHP, .295 vs. LHP). His low 9.4% strikeout rate against lefties says he will put the ball in play, but the upside is limited. Given his price and the fact that the Indians have a 5.23 implied run total, second-highest among non-Coors game, he’s not a terrible play for cash games. Just realize that, as a right-handed hitter, the ceiling just isn’t there for Santana.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!