10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 2nd
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, June 2, 2016.
1. If you play primarily cash games, you’ll probably want to stick to the early or all-day slates on Thursday, given that there’s nothing remotely resembling a safe starting pitcher on the main slate. On the early slate, though, we have Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner travels to Turner Field on Monday to face a Braves team whose woes against left-handed pitcher has been well-documented, but here’s the update: yep, still terrible (59 wRC+ and .259 wOBA, dead last in MLB). In five career games at Turner Field, Madison Bumgarner has a 10.25 K/BB ratio (he’s fanned 41 batters and walked just four). Not only is that Bumgarner’s best rate in any stadium in MLB, that’s the second-best rate in the history of Turner Field – Cliff Lee’s 44/2 K/BB ratio is the only better rate. Bumgarner’s 1.31 ERA in Turner Field since 2009 (his debut year) is the lowest in the ballpark’s history, as well.
2. Another option for the early slate is the perpetually underrated Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks hasn’t allowed a home run in 32.2 innings pitched at Wrigley Field this year. He joins Jake Arrieta as one of only two pitchers in MLB to have accrued 32+ innings at home without allowing a homer. He ranks ninth in MLB in FIP, and he’s in company with MLB’s elite, trailing only Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Quintana, Cueto, Strasburg, Rich Hill, and Arrieta. Against the Dodgers, his ability to induce weak contact (his 27.7 Soft% is higher than anyone’s in baseball not named Tanner Roark) gives him a floor high enough to warrant a play alongside Bumgarner on two-pitcher sites.
3. Since the start of 2015, no pitcher has struck out the Royals at a higher clip than Carlos Carrasco (minimum two games started). In four games against Kansas City during that span, Carrasco has piled up 38 Ks in 29 innings (11.8 K/9), and that includes the complete-game, one-hit, 15-K shutout he spun on September 25 of last year. In those games, the Royals have slashed .160/.222/.270 against him. Still, Carrasco will be on an 80-pitch limit on Thursday, meaning he’s likely only in play for GPPs.
4. On the other side of the same game, Yordano Ventura has been horrendous against the Indians since 2015. In three games, his 7.53 ERA is second-worst in MLB against them (Colby Lewis 9.22 ERA).
5. The last time Jerad Eickhoff found himself in a plus matchup against the righy-heavy, strikeout-heavy Brewers (MLB-high 26.9 K% versus RHP in 2016), he disappointed, allowing a career-high seven earned runs. That game should have little bearing on whether or not you view Eickhoff as worth playing today, for a few reasons. First (and most obviously), it’s a one-game sample. Second, that game was on the road, and Eickhoff has shown a preference for pitching at home throughout his (admittedly brief) MLB tenure (2.04 home ERA, 4.68 road ERA). And third, Eickhoff got really unlucky in that game – his 2.30 xFIP and .438 BABIP in that game tell as much of the story as the seven earned runs do. Add all this to the fact that Thursday’s main slate is a wasteland for starting pitching, and Eickhoff starts to look a bit more appealing.
6. Wade Miley is one pitcher who should not be on your radar on Thursday. He’s given up 10 home runs to righties this year, more than any other pitcher on the slate, and while his 48.8% ground ball rate this year says he should be able to keep the ball from leaving PetCo Park, the matchup isn’t as good as it appears on the surface. The Padres have been stellar against ground ball pitchers in 2016 with an .824 OPS that is the fourth-best mark in MLB.
7. Since 2014, there are three pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched) who have walked more left-handed batters than they’ve struck out: Robert Hernandez, Kevin Correia, and Eddie Butler (34 walks, 27 strikeouts), who pitches at Coors Field on Thursday against the likes of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. During that span, Butler’s .331 average allowed to lefties ranks dead last, as does his .432 wOBA, as does his 5.68 xFIP, as does his 1.99 WHIP.
8. Billy Hamilton has 45 career plate appearances at Coors Field. His .409 batting average at Coors is the second-best among all players during that stretch with a minimum of 45 PAs. In the 10 games he’s played in Coors, he’s had six multi-hit games. Obviously, this is more “fun fact” than substantive, actionable advice, but it is worth noting given the “You Can’t Steal First Base” mantra often applied to Hamilton.
9. In his age 40 season, David Ortiz currently has a .389 ISO, which is best all-time for a player age 40 and above. The next-highest is Ted Williams, who in his age 41 season in 1961, had a .329 ISO. On Thursday, Ortiz faces Ubaldo Jimenez, against whom he is a career 2-for-20 for a .100 average. That’s Ortiz’s lowest average against any pitcher he’s faced in his career (minimum 17 at-bats).
10. Corey Dickerson is the only player in MLB with a minimum of 300 career PAs against ground ball pitchers to post an OPS north of 1.000 (he’s at 1.009 in 312 PAs). Against Kyle Gibson (54.1 GB% since 2015), Dickerson makes for a nice low-owned one-off in GPPs on Thursday.