10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 3rd
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Wednesday, May 31st.
1. Since 2014, Carlos Carrasco has a 2.04 ERA against the Royals – that’s lowest among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched against Kansas City during that span. His 9.9 strikeouts per nine is also tied for first with Corey Kluber, and his .584 OPS allowed also ranks first. While past performance against a team doesn’t always predict future performance – the players might have changed, organizational philosophies might have changed, the pitcher himself might have changed – it is noteworthy that, in his last eight starts against Kansas City, he’s fanned six or more on seven occasions. Carrasco put up those numbers against a Royals team that, prior to this year, was notorious for their low strikeouts. This year, the Royals are only a bit better than league average in strikeouts against righties (21.2%), and they rank in the bottom three of MLB in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Carrasco is an excellent cash game option for Saturday’s early slate.
2. Since joining the Padres, Jhoulys Chacin has some insane home/road splits. In 27 innings pitched at PetCo Park, Chacin has a 0.67 ERA; in 30 2/3 innings at home, his ERA sits at 10.27. Yeah…his ERA is 15 times higher on the road than in his pitcher-friendly home park. His .176 wOBA allowed at home is also the lowest among all qualified pitchers. Now, this might be the most obvious candidate for regression you’ll ever see, and we’re still dealing in a tiny sample. But I actually don’t think Chacin is crazy in tournaments on the early slate. The Rockies tend to throw out a righty-heavy lineup, and Chacin has been quietly elite against righties this year – his .260 wOBA allowed is the same as Lance McCullers, and his 18.9% hard hit rate is by far the best in MLB among qualified pitchers (McCullers is second at 23.0%). If he can navigate Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez (no small feat), he could be in line for another solid outing at home.
3. While Chacin is a more of a tournament option, on the other side of the game, we have Tyler Chatwood, who is a borderline cash game play on two-pitcher sites. Chatwood is a solid pitcher who feels the effects of Coors Field as much as any pitcher can, but on the road, he flourishes. In a 112 1/3 sample, he’s allowed just a .259 wOBA on the road, which is bettered by Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Carrasco during that span. His .184 batting average and .244 OBP on the road since 2016 are best in MLB, as is his 2.08 ERA. His 24.4% hard hit rate is fourth-best in MLB during that span, and his 26.1% soft contact ranks first. And then there’s the matchup: the Padres rank in the bottom four of MLB in wOBA and wRC+ against righties, and their 25.6% strikeout rate is second-highest in MLB. Pairing Chatwood with Carrasco on two-pitcher sites will allow you plenty of freedom to spend up on some bats.
4. Lance McCullers has thrown six scoreless innings for three consecutive games on the road; prior to this streak, he’s never had consecutive games of zero earned runs allowed on the road. McCullers is a pitcher who has had far more success at home throughout his career (2.08 ERA at home, 4.42 ERA on the road). This year, though, he’s been playable on the road, and the sites refuse to price him like a true ace. There isn’t a better cash game option for the late slate than McCullers. Although the 4.15 implied run total, the ballpark, and the Texas heat are all working against him, the Rangers strike out at a 22.5% rate against righties (10th-highest in MLB), and the strikeout upside is just too great for a pitcher at his price point.
5. The Houston Astros have scored 55 runs over the past five games; that’s more than the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, and Cardinals combined during that span. With one of the highest implied run totals of the day (4.85 runs), the Astros are one of the top offenses to target on the early slate. It all starts with George Springer, who has a seven-game hitting streak in which he’s posted a .598 wOBA and a .469 ISO. Both of those numbers are the highest of any seven-game stretch of Springer’s career. You certainly have to pay for the hot streak (Springer’s price has increased from $4,000 to $5,500 since May 29th at DraftKings), but if you’re paying up for an outfield bat, he’s one of the top options.
6. Only four players in MLB have a .450+ wOBA and a .370+ ISO against right-handed pitching: Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, and… Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez should be one of the more overlooked Astros bats, and while Cashner can be exploited by both lefties and righties, his 43.2% fly ball rate against lefties is more than double his fly ball rate against rigthies (20.0%). Gonzalez (and Josh Reddick, for that matter), make for excellent tournament plays on Saturday’s early slate.
7. Jose Abreu has hits in 18 straight games against the Tigers – that’s the longest streak against the South Siders since Billy Butler recorded hits in 22 straight games against them from 2009-2011. But more importantly, Abreu faces Jordan Zimmermann, who has been crushed by both lefties and righties this season. Zimmermann is allowing a home run in 6.4% of plate appearances, most among qualified starters, and his 13.6% strikeout rate is fifth-lowest among qualified starters. So, Abreu should make contact. And if he makes contact on Zimmermann’s fastball, the ball could go a long way. Zimmermann throws his fastball nearly half the time to righties, and on that pitch, he’s allowed a .519 wOBA and .432 ISO. Abreu has crushed fastballs this year, posting a .457 wOBA and .225 ISO against them. He’s gotten only nine swinging strikes on 200 fastballs thrown (4.50 SwStr%). At $3,900 at DraftKings, Abreu is a bargain, even despite the ballpark downgrade.
8. The “ Miguel Gonzalez is good against righties” narrative has gained a bit of traction this year, and while he has limited production for right-handed hitters – he’s allowed a respectable .317 wOBA against righties – his 5.58 xFIP against them is third-highest among qualified starters. Plus, his 12.6% strikeout rate says that we shouldn’t be shy about targeting Tigers righties, despite Gonzalez’s recent history of holding them in check. Vegas agrees, as the Tigers have an implied run total of 4.96 runs, second-highest of the day.
9. Only two players this year have an ISO above .340 with a contact rate above 77.0%: Mike Trout and… Lucas Duda. Duda and the Mets face Tyler Glasnow, who they lit up for five earned runs when they met him in his last start. Duda showed his two-homer upside last night against Gerrit Cole, and he’s just as capable of doing it against the much more hittable Glasnow, owner of a .433 wOBA and 1.77 HR/9 to left-handed batters this year. He’s an elite play at FanDuel, where he’s still cheap.
10. Matt Adams has hit a home run once in every 10.5 at-bats at Great American Ball Park. That’s not bad. For some context, he hit a home run once every 24.8 home runs at Busch Stadium (albeit in a much larger sample). Like Duda, Adams can provide some home run upside at a relatively cheap price tag. He’s one of the top point-per-dollar options on the early slate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!