10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 12th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Friday, May 12th.
1. Since the beginning of 2016, Johnny Cueto has faced 489 batters at home…and allowed four home runs, or one homer for every 122.25 batters faced. Cueto is able to keep hitters off balance and induce tons of weak contact, as evidenced by the 26.0% hard hit rate since 2016, the second-lowest in the majors during that stretch. Admittedly, he hasn’t quite been himself this year – he’s allowed eight home runs already, when last season, he didn’t allow his eighth until July 17th. The matchup with the Reds is deceptively tough, as well (and lest anyone claim the Reds’ success is entirely dependent on their hitter-friendly home park, it’s worth noting they hold a .356 wOBA on the road this year, second-best in MLB). Still, Cueto righted the ship in his last start, fanning 10 and allowing just two earned in a matchup against this same Reds team. While a discounted Kershaw (at FanDuel, at least) is tempting, Cueto’s history of success at AT&T Park gives him a bit more safety, making him arguably the top pitcher for cash games on Friday.
2. Speaking of Kershaw, he’s now faced 189 batters this season; he’s still yet to fall behind 3-0 in the count (Michael Pineda is the only other qualified pitcher with zero 3-0 counts on the season). Kershaw at Coors presents the ultimate dilemma for DFS players, and at FanDuel, where Kershaw’s price has been slashed from $12,300 in his last start to $9,800 in this one, the decision is even tougher (at DraftKings, he’s priced at a much more fade-able $11,300). Kershaw has not been Coors-proof during his career. In fact, he’s allowed three home runs on just three occasions, and twice, it’s been in Colorado (including his last start there, back on April 8th). However, on a day when there aren’t any “must-play” starting pitchers (depending on how you feel about Johnny Cueto), Kershaw makes for a fine cash game play at FanDuel.
3. Rick Porcello has struck at at least five batters in all seven of his starts this season. Here are the other pitchers who have struck out five on seven occasions this year: Archer, Carrasco, Ray, Samardzija, Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw. With one exception (sorry, Shark), we’re talking about the elite strikeout pitchers in baseball here. While Porcello definitely stands out as not being in the same class as any of those guys in terms of strikeout ceiling (with the possible exception of Samardzija), Porcello’s floor for strikeouts is a bit underrated. The “Porcello doesn’t strike anybody out” narrative made more sense in years past than it does in 2017, when he’s 23.6% strikeout rate ranks ahead of guys like Taijuan Walker, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester.
4. One more Porcello stat: since the beginning of 2016, he has 10 games of eight strikeouts or more; four of those games came against the Rays. Don’t be swayed by the fact that Porcello gave up eight earned runs against this Rays team earlier this year, as that’s the one blemish on his game logs; he’s earned a quality start with at least five strikeouts every other time he’s taken the hill. He should be able to rack up the strikeouts against the team that has a 25.9% K rate against righties, the highest mark in MLB.
5. The New York Yankees rank first in MLB in OPS against fly ball pitchers (.932) and 23rd against ground ball pitchers (.632). They rank first in batting average against fly ball pitchers (.303) and and 28th in batting average against ground ball pitchers (.224). And what’s more, these numbers do not factor in Dallas Keuchel six innings of work last night, in which he allowed just five hits and no earned runs. We’re dealing with a sample of a few hundred PA, so none of this is written in stone, and there’s admittedly some noise in the stat (Baseball Reference lumps the top third of MLB pitchers in GB rate into the category of “ground ball pitchers”). But this isn’t limited to 2017; last year, they ranked 28th in OPS and 27th in average against ground ball pitchers. This team just struggles against pitchers who can keep the ball on the ground. Lance McCullers has proven to be far more effective at home, but his elite 58.1% ground ball rate says that he may not be as affected by Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch as other pitchers. These days, it’s hard to use any pitcher against the Yankees in cash, but he’s a very interesting tournament option in a matchup that may not be as bad as it appears.
6. Tanner Roark has faced the Phillies seven times since 2016; he’s allowed a hard contact rate of 23% or lower in six of those games (and in the other, he had a 27.3% hard contact rate, still well below league average). If you read the Grind Down last Sunday, I mentioned Roark’s dominance over the Phillies, and he came through in his last start, holding this same Phillies team to just two hits with no earned runs over six innings. After that start, his ERA against the Phillies since 2016 is down to 0.96, by far the lowest of any pitcher against them during that stretch (minimum 20 IP). Roark probably won’t break any strikeout records in this one, but as a -190 favorite at home, he’s perfectly viable for cash games, particularly at two-pitcher sites.
7. This year, Danny Duffy has three or fewer strikeouts in four of his seven starts. Last year, over 26 starts, he had three or fewer strikeouts in just three starts. With each passing start, it’s looking more and more like 2016 was the outlier, as Duffy appears to be regressing to his pre-breakout form due to his plummeting strikeout rate. Until he proves he can punch out batters with more regularity, he continues to be an easy fade.
8. So far this year, ten players in MLB have BABIPs below .210. Of those 10 players, none have a higher hard hit rate than than Rougned Odor’s 36.1 percent. This is still the same player who broke out last season – the same ability to make hard contact, roughly the same strikeout rate, and his minuscule walk rate is actually up a tick (to be fair, it’s “up” to 4.1%, which isn’t saying much). He was already a fly ball hitter, but he’s actually hitting more fly balls this year. He’s simply been unlucky. Against Jesse Hahn (.360 wOBA, 2.04 HR/9, 37.9% hard hits against righties since 2016), Odor is a premiere play at second base on Friday, despite his early-season struggles.
9. Since 2015, Michael Conforto has 566 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. During that time, he’s posted a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 41.4% hard hit rate. Here is the list of other players to match Conforto’s hard hit rate with 22.4% or fewer strikeouts (min. 566 PAs): David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Matt Carpenter, Joey Votto. It’s still early in his career, but Conforto is showing he’s got a unique combination of elite power and the ability to hold his strikeouts to manageable levels. His price at DraftKings ($4,300) is still more than reasonable, and that, combined with his batting leading, makes him a nice cash game anchor.
10. Last year, Yonder Alonso had a .225 wOBA on fly balls; this year, his wOBA on fly balls is up to .630. And, luckily for those who have rostered him in DFS, he’s hitting fly balls a lot more often. In the first 2,343 PAs of his career (prior to this year), he had a 32.6% fly ball rate and a 30.5% hard contact rate. In 113 PAs this year, Alonso has a 52.0% fly ball rate and a 41.3% hard contact rate. Sure, that power has come at a slight cost, as his 14.4% career strikeout rate before this year has jumped to 21.2% in a small sample in 2017. But if the power is real, it’s a more than fair tradeoff. On Friday, he has one of the elite matchups on the board at Globe Life Park against Andrew Cashner (.360 wOBA, 38.5% hard hits vs. LHB since 2016).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!