10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for September 10th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, September 10th.
1. Max Scherzer has recorded 63 three-pitch strikeouts this season. That’s 22 more than the player who ranks second (Carlos Carrasco with 41 three-pitch Ks). For some added perspective, consider this: The 22 strikeouts that separates Scherzer from Carrasco is the same distance that separates Carrasco from the group of players who rank 90th on that list.
2. So, Scherzer is really dominant in the strikeout department. We all know that. But he’s been particularly dominant in this matchup, striking out at least seven Phillies in each of the four games he’s faced them this year. He’s one of two pitchers in MLB this year with four 7-K games against a single opponent. Anyone want to take a guess at the other in the comments thread? Anyone care with football on the horizon? (Maybe I should have used Dak Prescott for the cover image as a cheap ploy to lure in readers…)
3. Rich Hill has eight consecutive games of two or fewer earned runs. He’s allowed zero home runs during that stretch. The last home run he allowed was back on May 1. He travels to Miami to take on a Marlins team that has an MLB-low .127 ISO since the All-Star break, or the same ISO as Chris Owings this season. One fact that does give me a bit of pause: per FanGraphs, the Marlins rank fifth in runs produced per 100 curveballs (.44), and Hill throws his curveball 41.3% of the time, which would be most in MLB if he had the innings to qualify. Even so, given the ballpark, the fact that he’s a heavy road favorite, and the Marlins general offensive ineptitude, Hill seems safe enough for cash games today.
4. “Blue Jays righty bats against lefties” has been a thing in DFS for a while, and today, they’re at home against Boston left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. But after scuffling early in the year, he’s been dominant down the stretch, even against right-handed batters, particularly on the road, allowing a .136 wOBA to them on the road since the All-Star break (82 total batters). Of the last 102 righties Eduardo Rodriguez has faced (either home or road), he’s allowed 11 hits. Obviously the sample sizes here are minuscule, but they do tend to make me reconsider how heavy I want to go on Blue Jays today.
5. Chris Archer takes the hill on Saturday, and with Archer, the question is always, “Is he at home?” He isn’t, as he travels to Yankee Stadium to face the Yankees. A quick look at Archer’s home/road splits (5.79 home ERA, 2.63 road ERA) does not tell the full story, though. Since the All-Star break, he has a 2.08 xFIP on the road, and his K-BB% away from the Trop during that span is a massive 32.1%. His road K-BB% in the first half? 13.0%. No matter the venue, he’s been a different pitcher in the second half of the season (his 2.79 SIERA ranks second in MLB). While there are too many pitchers in plus matchups (Scherzer vs. the Phillies, Jon Gray vs. the Padres, Hill vs. the Marlins, Masahiro Tanaka vs. the Rays) to consider Archer a cash game must. But as always, his elite K upside makes him a high-upside tournament option.
6. In six career starts against the Tampa Bay Rays, Masahiro Tanaka has struck out 37 batters, and walked…two. That’s Kershaw-esque. He’s got an excellent matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays (23.9% K-rate, fourth-highest in MLB), and while he might not have the upside of a Scherzer or an Archer, Tanaka has fanned 19 Rays in 21 innings this year. And he’s been efficient against them, going seven innings in all three starts while averaging just 86 pitchers per outing. He’ll most likely have a good-not-great game, and he’ll probably pitch deep into the game, all of which screams cash game play.
7. Jose Abreu has a .314 batting average against neutral and fly ball pitchers this season, which is just a shade higher than his slugging percentage against ground ball pitchers this year (.314). His 2016 batting average against ground ball pitchers is exactly 100 points lower than his batting average against fly ball pitchers (.197 against ground ballers, .297 against fly ballers). Edinson Volquez doesn’t do much well as a pitcher, but one thing he does do well is induce grounders to righties (55.3 GB%, 10th-highest among qualified starters in MLB). It might be wise to look elsewhere at first base today.
8. The two longest active hitting streaks in MLB belong to…Atlanta Braves. Ender Inciarte has an 18-game hitting streak, and Freddie Freeman is riding a 14-game streak. With so many solid arms going today, it’s actually rounding up to be a difficult game for hitters, putting Braves lefties (particularly Freeman) against Colon and his 38.8% hard hit rate against LHB (eighth-highest in MLB) squarely in play.
9. David Ortiz, Mike Trout Grichuk? Over the last 30 days, Grichuk has crushed the ball to the tune of a 51.6% hard hit rate, trailing only Ortiz (57.1%) and Trout (55.4%) in that department. That includes 10 home runs over the past 30 days. Not Brian Dozier, destroyer-of-pitcher’s-world type numbers, but still impressive. Against reverse-splits righty Chase Anderson (.395 wOBA vs. RHB, .298 wOBA vs. LHB in 2016), Grichuk is a solid, perennially underowned tournament option.
10. There are two players in MLB with higher than a .400 wOBA, .200 ISO, and 25.0% line drive rate against right-handed pitching, and they’re brothers: it’s Corey Seager and Kyle Seager. The two hitters are morphing into the same player against righties, with identical .966 OPS marks and similar numbers in several other metrics. On Saturday, they’re both on the road in good matchups, as Corey faces Tom Koehler and Kyle faces Kendall Graveman.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.